Abstract
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, June–September) is an important factor in agricultural planning and the Indian economy. The ISMR over East India (EI: Chhattisgarh-Bihar-Jharkhand-Odisha) is particularly significant, and it can have an impact on the country's average ISMR. The current study examined projected changes in ISMR over EI with two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for near (2017–2040) and far-future (2041–2070) projections using a set of ten CORDEX-SA Regional Climate Model (RCMs). To begin, the performance of raw and bias-corrected ISMR over EI outputs from ten CORDEX-SA RCMs was compared to a high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded rainfall analysis dataset from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) over the hindcast period (1971–2005). Following that, bias-corrected results were used to calculate ISMR projections over EI for the near and distant futures. Most RCMs, according to the findings, can imitate the spatial pattern of ISMR across EI but are restricted in their ability to capture actual magnitudes. Notably, RCM prediction skill increased greatly after employing various bias-correction approaches, the quantile mapping (QQM) bias-correction technique outperformed other current conventional bias correction methods, and the QQM technique was employed for ISMR future projections using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The analysis of ISMR projections over EI reveals that there will be more deficit rainfall years in the short term while more excess rainfall years in the far future.
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Data Availability
The IMD observation rainfall information is freely available on https://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html for all India domain and CORDEX-SA regional climate models data are available on https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz/, The datasets extracted for East India and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the corresponding author on request.
Code Availability
The code used for the study will be available from the corresponding author on request.
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Acknowledgements
This research is the outcome of a research project entitled “Study of the Effects of Climate Change on Hydro-meteorological Processes: Droughts and Floods at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales in Eastern India” at IIT Bhubaneswar, sponsored by the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India. Authors duly acknowledge the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing a high-resolution gridded analysis dataset. The authors also thank the Climate Data Portal at the Center for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India, for providing CORDEX-SA data. The authors are also very appreciative of the anonymous reviewers for providing valuable suggestions and comments that helped improve the quality of the manuscript.
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Barde, V., Nageswararao, M.M., Mohanty, U.C. et al. Performance of the CORDEX-SA Regional Climate Models in Simulating Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Future Projections over East India. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 1121–1142 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03225-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03225-3