Abstract
The dynamic nature of land use/land cover modifies the basin’s hydrology and, therefore, evaluation of its impact on hydrological elements is of great importance. This research aims to quantify the impact of land use/land cover change on the streamflow of Upper Guder River Catchment, Ethiopia. In this study, a semi-distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to see the static impact of LU/LC change on streamflow for 30 years (1989–2018). Landsat images were classified using a maximum likelihood classifier to generate LU/LC maps for the years 1989, 2002, and 2018. The LU/LC results show that, during the study period, forest/shrubland and grassland decreased by 6.48% and 4.23%, respectively, while Agricultural and Built-up areas increased by 8.04% and 2.69%, respectively. In this study, the SWAT model was calibrated for ten years (1995–2004) and then validated for five years (2005–2009) using daily discharge and LU/LC for the year 2002. During calibration, the R2 and NSE were 0.84 and 0.74, while during validation 0.83 and 0.72, respectively. The calibrated and validated model parameters then were transferred to run the SWAT model with LU/LC data from 1989, and 2018. The simulated results show that due to modified LU/LC streamflow has increased in the wet season and short rainy season by 10.04% and 5.25%, respectively, while it has decreased by 6.60% in the dry season. The decrease in the streamflow during the dry season is mainly due to changing LU/LC, which has brought an alarming situation at downstream sites. Thus, to cope-up with it an effective integrated participatory approach for catchment management is required in the basin and surrounding neighborhood.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are not publicly available due to [REASON(S) WHY DATA ARE NOT PUBLIC] but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Abbaspour KC, Rouholahnejad E, Vaghefi S, Srinivasan R, Yang H, Kløve B (2015) A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model. J Hydrol 524:733–752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.027
Abdo KS, Fiseha BM, Rientjes THM, Gieske ASM, Haile AT (2009) Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of Gilgel Abay catchment in Lake Tana basin Ethiopia. Hydrol Process 23(26):3661–3669. https://doi.org/10.1002/HYP.7363
Anderson JR, Hardy EE, Roach JT, Witmer RE (1976) Land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data. U S Geol Surv, Prof Pap, 964.
Arnold JG, Moriasi DN, Gassman PW, Abbaspour KC, White MJ, Srinivasan R, Santhi C, Harmel RD, van Griensven A, Van Liew MW, Kannan N, Jha MK (2012) SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation. Trans ASABE 55(4):1491–1508. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.42256
Atkinson HDE, Johal P, Falworth MS, Ranawat VS, Dala-Ali B, Martin DK (2010) Adductor tenotomy: its role in the management of sports-related chronic groin pain. Arch Orthop Trauma Surg 130(8):965–970. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00402-009-1032-4
Baja S, Chapman DM, Dragovich D (2001) Fuzzy modeling of environmental suitability index for rural land use systems: An assessment using a GIS. In: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on GeoComputation University of Queensland Brisbane Australia 24 26 September 2001. 10.1.1.163.5209
Baldyga TJ, Miller SN, Driese KL, Gichaba CM (2008) Assessing land cover change in Kenya’s Mau Forest region using remotely sensed data. Afr J Ecol 46(1):46–54. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1365-2028.2007.00806.X
Bewket W, Abebe S (2013) Land-use and land-cover change and its environmental implications in a tropical highland watershed Ethiopia. Int J Environ Stud. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2012.755765
Birhanu A (2014) Environmental degradation and management in ethiopian highlands: review of lessons learned. Int J Environ Protect Policy 2(1):24. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepp.20140201.14
Chaubey I, Cotter AS, Costello TA, Soerens TS (2005) Effect of DEM data resolution on SWAT output uncertainty. Hydrol Process 19(3):621–628. https://doi.org/10.1002/HYP.5607
CSA (2015) Central Statistical Agency, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia; Addis Ababa: 2015. Agricultural Sample Survey 2014/2015, Vol. 1. https://www.duo.uio.no/handle/10852/65326
Dechasa A, Aga AO, Dufera T (2022) Erosion risk assessment for prioritization of conservation measures in the Watershed of Genale Dawa-3 hydropower
FRA (2020) An assessment of data sources, data quality and changes in national forest monitoring capacities in the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005–2020. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ABD81B
Gashaw T, Bantider A, Mahari A (2014) Evaluations of land use/land cover changes and land degradation in Dera District, Ethiopia: GIS and remote sensing based analysis. Int J Sci Res Environ Sci 2(6):199–208. https://doi.org/10.12983/ijsres-2014-p0199-0208
Gashaw T, Tulu T, Argaw M, Worqlul AW (2018) Modeling the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Sci Total Environ 619–620:1394–1408. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2017.11.191
Gupta HV, Sorooshian S, Yapo PO (1999) Status of automatic calibration for hydrologic models: comparison with multilevel expert calibration. J Hydrol Eng 4(2):135–143. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1084-0699(1999)4:2(135)
Hadgu KM (2008) Temporal and spatial changes in land use patterns and biodiversity in relation to farm productivity at multiple scales in Tigray Ethiopia. Wageningen University and Research (978-90-8585-212-4)
Hans Hurni KT, GZ (2005) The implications of changes in population, land use, and land management for surface runoff in the Upper Nile Basin Area of Ethiopia. Mt Res Dev 25(2):147–154. https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741_2005_025_0147_TIOCIP_2.0.CO_2
Haregeweyn N, Tsunekawa A, Nyssen J, Poesen J, Tsubo M, Tsegaye MD, Schütt B, Adgo E, Tegegne F (2015) Soil erosion and conservation in Ethiopia: a review. Prog Phys Geogr 39(6):750–774. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133315598725
Kidane M, Tolessa T, Bezie A, Kessete N, Endrias M (2018) Evaluating the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LU/LC) dynamics on the Hydrological Responses of the Upper Blue Nile in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia. Spatial Inform Res 27(2):151–167. https://doi.org/10.1007/S41324-018-0222-Y
Kindu M, Schneider T, Teketay D, Knoke T (2013) Land use/land cover change analysis using object-based classification approach in munessa-shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. Remote Sens 5:2411–2435. https://doi.org/10.3390/RS5052411
Lambin EF, Geist HJ, Lepers E (2003) Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Ann Rev Environ Resour 28:205–241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105459
Mahamud MA, Samat N, Tan ML, Chan NW, Tew YL, Automata C, Growth US, Aeronautics N (2019) Prediction of future land use land cover changes of Kelantan , Malaysia. XLII (October), 1–3. 10.5194
Messay M, Bekure W (2011) The impact of resettlement schemes on land-use/land-cover changes in Ethiopia: a case study from nonno resettlement sites, Central Ethiopia. J Sustain Dev Afr 13(2):269–293
Miller SN, Kepner WG, Mehaffey MH, Hernandez M, Miller RC, Goodrich DC, Devonald KK, Heggem DT, Miller WP (2002) Integrating landscape assessment and hydrologic modeling for land cover change analysis1. JAWRA J Am Water Resour Assoc 38(4):915–929. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1752-1688.2002.TB05534.X
Miranda JD, Armas C, Padilla FM, Pugnaire FI (2011) Climatic change and rainfall patterns: effects on semi-arid plant communities of the Iberian Southeast. J Arid Environ 75(12):1302–1309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2011.04.022
Mishra VN, Rai PK, Mohan K (2014) Prediction of land use changes based on land change modeler (LCM) using remote sensing: a case study of Muzaffarpur (Bihar), India. J Geogr Inst Jovan Cvijic, SASA 64(1):111–127. https://doi.org/10.2298/ijgi1401111m
Monserud RA (2020) Evaluating forest models in a sustainable forest management context. 1(1999), 35–47. 10.1.1.458.4718
Montoya JM, Raffaelli D (2010) Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services. Philos Trans R Soc B: Biol Sci 365(1549):2013–2018. https://doi.org/10.1098/RSTB.2010.0114
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50(3):885–900. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153
Mwangi HM, Julich S, Patil SD, McDonald MA, Feger KH (2016) Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya. J Hydrol Reg Stud 5:244–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.059
Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Srinivasan R (2005) Soil and water assessment tool input/output file documentation. https://swat.tamu.edu/media/1292/swat2005theory.pdf
Santhi C, Arnold JG, Williams JR, Dugas WA, Srinivasan R, Hauck LM (2001) Validation of the SWAT model on a large RWER basin with point and nonpoint sources1. JAWRA J Am Water Resour Assoc 37(5):1169–1188. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1752-1688.2001.TB03630.X
Teferi E, Uhlenbrook S, Bewket W, Wenninger J, Simane B (2010) The use of remote sensing to quantify wetland loss in the Choke Mountain range, Upper Blue Nile basin Ethiopia. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14(12):2415–2428. https://doi.org/10.5194/HESS-14-2415-2010
Tolessa T, Senbeta F, Kidane M (2016) Landscape composition and configuration in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Ecol Evol 6(20):7409–7421. https://doi.org/10.1002/ECE3.2477
van Griensven A, Meixner T, Grunwald S, Bishop T, Diluzio M, Srinivasan R (2006) A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment models. J Hydrol 324(1–4):10–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2005.09.008
Welde K, Gebremariam B (2017) Effect of land use land cover dynamics on hydrological response of watershed: Case study of Tekeze Dam watershed, northern Ethiopia. Int Soil Water Conserv Res 5(1):1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ISWCR.2017.03.002
Zhan J, Liu J, Lin Y, Wu F, Ma E (2014) Land use change dynamics model compatible with climate models. Springer Geogr. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-54876-5_2
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the Ministry of Education for sponsoring the first author to carry out this research during his master’s dissertation. In addition, we want to acknowledge the Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Energy (MOWIE) and the Ethiopian Meteorological Service Agency for providing essential hydrological and meteorological inputs.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Tasgara, T.D., Kumar, B. Assessment of land use/land cover change impact on streamflow: a case study over upper Guder Catchment, Ethiopia. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 9, 6 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-022-00783-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-022-00783-1