Knicks Morning News (2024.11.21)

Nice showing last night, both by the Knicks and you guys who stayed up late.

Meanwhile Sixer Schadenfreude is the gift that keeps on giving. 2-12 with the 27th SRS, yet people still take them seriously.

“When Philly gets healthy” is the new “when RJ becomes consistent.” I just hope it doesn’t end up with the Sixers landing their Tim Duncan. Embiid as David Robinson fits too well and I don’t have the stomach for it.

Thibodeau, a spokesman against load management, said the secret to health is consistent conditioning.

“There’s a value of being in great shape all the time,” Thibodeau said. “So, you have to do all the things you can to prepare yourself to endure a long season. I think when you look at the players that have been durable, it’s usually the ones that are in unbelievable shape, who stay in shape year-round and prepare themselves for what they’re going to go through.”

Max, i can’t watch the games out west, it’s too late for me, so I miss your recaps. 😉

Did OG hurt his left arm last night?

That would be a problem.

https://x.com/KnicksFanTv/status/1859456405163417876

But reading the game thread was already a lot of fun… 😀

“Defense looking a lot better”
“Knicks off the ball defenders are totally clueless”
“Some solid exterior defense there from Towns”
“No defense! It’s like watching an all star game…”
“That was a highlight team defensive possession”
“No big lead is safe enough for the Knicks defense…”
“Safe to say this has been the best half of defense so far this season?”
“KAT on D…no bueno”

…all these comments in the same thread! 😀

Like everyone here, I’m thoroughly enjoying our play on offense right now. I am also not drawing any conclusions beyond the reality that we are beating teams that it would be highly embarrassing to lose to, although increasingly convincingly. Obviously Utah falls into that category as well, although they have a lot of talent and can beat anyone on any given night. Then we have Denver and Dallas. I’d sign up for 2 of 3 right now.

But even if we lose 2 of the next 3, which I think is more likely, for me, the season doesn’t really start until we face some top teams who are healthy and gelled while we are also healthy and gelled. This is the time for chemistry-building, and that is going very well. The only thing that would change my thinking right now is is we beat both of DEN and DAL. I’m sure those teams are looking forward to those games and will have answers for KAT and Brunson that the teams we are beating right now don’t have. They also have offenses that will shred our shitty D unless we work out some kinks.

The defense looked really good for short stretches. It’s the best we’ve been rotating on defense all season. Some really strong possessions that burnt a lot of the shot clock. Booker was able to bail them out of some of those, and there was still a lot of poor defense, but it was the first time getting a glimpse of what the defense could be.

It was also kind of a blowout, so they may have taken their foot off the pedal at times. If we shoot like this, we won’t need to play too much defense.

It really is amazing how much better KAT is on offense than Julius — or, at least, how much easier his points come. I didn’t look at the trade as a wash, because clearly KAT was better and more versatile. But I didn’t think the gap was quite this large. The question is no longer whether it was an upgrade over Julius, but whether the quantum leap in our overall offense from playing KAT at the 5 will outweigh the challenges our defense will face with KAT at the 5 instead of a classic Thibs rim protector type.

After this next 3-game ordeal, we have a very soft strech that will be crucial in terms of piling up needed wins and securing a foothold in the standings:
@CHA
vs. NOP
vs. ORL w/o Banchero
vs. CHA
vs. DET
@ TOR
@ MIN
@ NOP
vs. TOR
vs. SAS
@ ORL possibly w/ Banchero
@ WAS
@ WAS again
vs. UTA on New Year’s Day

There’s also those pesky ISM games, but if we stay healthy but aren’t somewhere around 10 games over .500 by then I’d be very disappointed.

“I like that we won but I don’t like how our D looks.

I don’t disagree, per se, but come on, they totally didn’t even take this game seriously, they were so sure they were kicking their asses (and they were right). If their D fails in a tougher game, I’ll be concerned, but not in a laugher like this.”

We don’t have our shit together enough to be able to consider any game a “laugher.” I mean, we lost to the Bulls.

“Did OG hurt his left arm last night?

That would be a problem.

https://x.com/KnicksFanTv/status/1859456405163417876.”

Didn’t he keep playing after that?

One of the issues with being all in is that these kinds of wins mean much less to me than they did previously. I remember back in the ’90s when it seemed like the only games that really counted were those against teams like the Bulls, Cavs, Pacers, etc.

Right now I still have the shitty aftertaste of our humiliating losses to Boston, Cleveland, and Indiana in my mouth. Until we play those guys again, I’m not going to get giddy over whupping either the dregs or teams missing superstars.

I will, however, love to see us take a game from one of Denver or Dallas…that would go a long way in giving me confidence that we will fare better when those teams come back around.

KAT now up to 6.9 BPM for the season… Randle’s highest career mark was 3.8.

I don’t think we’ll get the full picture of our defense until we see Mitch back, or at least Precious, so I’m holding my opinions on it. It’s not looking good, but there’s potential to be much better once everyone settles down.

FWIW, our starting unit seems to have played better defense than the 2nd unit for once. It was Sims, Payne, and the mixed lineups that struggled. One game, but those are the guys we need to lock it down.

So this is a negative take after a fairly delirious win, so with a grain of salt. But about halfway through the fourth, I was like, where’s Mikal and OG? It boiled down to JB and KAT taking turns punishing the Suns, which normally I’d be totally down with (and it was fun to watch). But first, I kept thinking I’d be miffed if I was OG or Mikal (flashbacks to pickup games with narcissists), and second they got off to that great start because of impeccable ball movement and all five guys scoring at will, not two guys scoring at will.

We were good enough to maintain the lead after that by sending our two offensive juggernauts to do their thing again and again. but basically the Suns were playing us even then. Better teams could shut Jalen and/or KAT down, and we lose that game. It’s a dangerous practice.

One of the issues with being all in is that these kinds of wins mean much less to me than they did previously. I remember back in the ’90s when it seemed like the only games that really counted were those against teams like the Bulls, Cavs, Pacers, etc.

Right now I still have the shitty aftertaste of our humiliating losses to Boston, Cleveland, and Indiana in my mouth. Until we play those guys again, I’m not going to get giddy over whupping either the dregs or teams missing superstars.

I mean, sure. But there is something to be said about knowing there’s a Knicks game on TV and tuning in knowing that there’s a good chance they’re going to win and getting to watch them smack a team down like they did in the first quarter. 5 years ago I’d look at the schedule and see us going up against a barely 500 team and be hesitant to watch cause I thought we’d possibly get blown out. Or I’d watch a game thinking they got this only to watch them get down by 20 by the 2nd quarter. I like going to bed happy on a regular basis because my team won the game.

And then when we do go up against the Celtics or whoever, there isn’t some huge fear we’re going to get embarrassed (although that can still happen). I actually think we might beat them!

So yeah, a lot of the games are meaningless, but I’m not hanging my hopes on us eeking out a January win against Detroit off the back of Frank finally hitting a few 3’s or some other false hope bullshit.

There’s a lot to love about the way KAT is playing. He’s a legit MVP candidate right now, at least on the offensive end. He’s punishing mismatches, blowing by bigs, scoring efficiently from everywhere, and making heady plays. His defense is as bad as advertised but his rebounding on the defensive end is as good as it gets, mitigating at least some of that.

But imho, we got him for games like the two coming up in Denver and Dallas. Denver has Jokic and a bunch of guys who will get to the rim. Dallas has multiple bigs to throw at him and Doncic and Kyrie will be targeting him. He has to stay out of foul trouble and do something special in the fourth quarter for me to get all that excited about him at this point. Last January after acquiring OG we beat Minny, crushed healthy versions of Denver and Philly, and were destroying Miami when Randle went down. I need to see KAT be the centerpiece of a run like that before I get too worked up about his gaudy stats.

Wowsers. You never realize how important Achiuwa is to this roster until you give up 122 to the KD & Beal-less Suns.

Offense was great though! I’m trying not to read too much into this win streak because we haven’t played good teams, as even Phoenix was a bad team last night because of health. But we seem to be able to find ways to score from all over. Brunson’s stats are proof of that. Still at 25ppg with his usual shooting splits..but right now he’s at a career high 7.2 apg!! Even Hart is at 6! The ball is moving and it’s great to see. If we can manage to shoot another 5-10 threes a game..we might be able to average 120 a game right along with Boston and maybe GS

On a side note, I was again impressed with the play of Sims on both ends but especially at the rim and in space on D. I wonder whether that game where Huk played 30 minutes lit a fire under him.

His TOV% is a crazy 27.3%…is that all do to illegal screens? He has set some bone-crushers in the last couple of games, Bub Carrington is probably still hurting.

That’s Sir Carlton Carrington to you, sir.

It’s hard to believe that we are still dead last in pace. Seems like we’ve been running and gunning a lot more than in the past.

His TOV% is a crazy 27.3%…is that all do to illegal screens? He has set some bone-crushers in the last couple of games, Bub Carrington is probably still hurting.

He also never shoots the ball. If we fed him the ball more out of PnR the number would look better… it’d still be really bad though.

I wouldn’t worry too much about the defense last night. I thought they were able to tighten it up when the Suns were threatening. Most of the night, though, the Suns were shooting 3s every other possession because they were so far behind (I think it was the most 3PAs by an opponent since the opening game against Boston).

Shams:

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic has sustained a wrist injury and is expected to miss time, sources tell ESPN.

Dallas game just got a bit easier.

If anyone missed my post last night, our 16 first quarter fast break points would’ve been our 3rd highest total of the season for an entire game.

Only our games against Detroit and Milwaukee were higher. We also had 16 in our 2nd game against Brooklyn.

Shams:

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic has sustained a wrist injury and is expected to miss time, sources tell ESPN.

Dallas game just got a bit easier.

We should sweep this road trip.

Honestly I’m scared shitless by our defense rn.

I’m not panicking until at least one of Mitch and Precious comes back, but as of now if shots don’t fall we’re doomed. We couldn’t stop a team of 5 Kendrick Perkins.

Edit: Dallas has multiple bigs to throw at him and Doncic’s replacement and Kyrie will be targeting him.

Has Jokic rejoined the team? I think he’s been out for a while.

We’re #2 in offensive rating, mainly built off being #2 in eFG% and #4 in TOV%. That’s a pretty nice recipe. When we win, it’s because we bludgeon teams with ruthless offensive efficiency and don’t turn the ball over. Seems preferable to “miss but very often get the offensive rebound.”

We also have a 10-5 Pythag, which would project to a 54-win season. We’re starting to reliably beat the cupcakes we’re supposed to beat.

Somebody who is wise at this blog (I don’t remember who) suggested recently that the team should switch up the defensive strategy and go for more steals. We’re 29th in defensive TOV% and also low in defensive eFG%. We’re not good at stopping teams from scoring anyway, so might as well gamble and go for more turnovers and end possessions that way. We won’t, but we should.

Other noticings:
The Good: we are 8th in assists per game but 4th in TOV%.
The Bad: we are 3rd in FT% but 29th in FTA. Mikal Bridges, that means you!
The Ugly: We have dropped from 1st in OReb% to 22nd. However, we are 1st in opponent’s DReb%. I guess that happens when a lot of your shots go in!

Also sort of ugly: we generate the fewest turnovers in the NBA, which is probably a big reason for our slow pace. It’s not like we don’t want to or like to run…in the first Q last night we had a bunch of steals that led to quick transition buckets. KAT had some really nice outlet passes as well, hopefully we will see more of that.

Looks like JK and I are co-scrutiizing the B-R team page…

“Has Jokic rejoined the team? I think he’s been out for a while.”

He has been out for undisclosed “personal reasons” so it would seem that his healthy return is more likely than not, but who knows? While I would like the win, I really want to see how we fare against them with Jokic.

I don’t know. Long term I’m not THAT worried about the defense.

Mitch and Precious will help a lot. But, more importantly, defense is, ultimately, a team thing. Brunson and KAT aren’t great defenders (that’s being kind) but we have good defenders on the team and the longer this core plays together, the better they will get. You know Thibs will keep working on it till they get better.

Nobody complains about defense during game threads more than I do but I’m slowly getting used to the fact that we’re so good offensively we can play bad defense and still easily win games by 20 pts.

I’ve mentioned before, a couple of years ago Knicks were 3rd in offensive rating and 19th in defense which were their same exact rankings when they won 54 games in 2013. Denver won the championship ranking 15th in defensive efficiency. This Knicks team probably won’t sniff being a Top 10 defense but if they can be just an average defensive team they’ll have a legit chance of winning it all.

Any theories on why Kolek was in the rotation instead of Dadiet last night?

The Ugly: We have dropped from 1st in OReb% to 22nd

I’m seeing us at 15th on BKRef.

In something that endlessly annoys me, nba.com has different stats (because they count possessions and BKRef estimates based on box scores and maybe some other differences). If only NBA.com were more user friendly… Anyway, we’re listed at 13th on NBA.com due to whatever difference there is.

In big picture terms, the end of Moneyball has worked out pretty much exactly as planned. So that’s a plus for those of us who hated it and called for its end, and thanks to Leon and the FO for seeing it and following through. The next step for them in managing that particular project is to make sure Thibs doesn’t somehow revert and F everything back up.

I do see the low FTr as a potential issue come the bigger games and playoff time. They’re currently 24th in FT/FGA. Admittedly, this is nothing more than hunch and intuition; I have no idea if it’s supported by numbers. The question would be whether excellent overall offenses with low FT/FGA underperform offensively in the playoffs.(*) I’ve done no actual research on it whatsoever. The hunch is simply that it’s seemingly on its face nice, all else equal, to be able to get to the line to dampen cold streaks in shooting come tougher defenses and playoff time.

(*) Or I guess also whether such offenses are more volatile or more prone to bounceback.

“I’m seeing us at 15th on BKRef.”

Yeah my mistake, I was looking at ORebs per game, not OReb%.

If you had to choose between the Magic and their high level defense and below average offense or the Knicks with our below average defense and off the charts offense, which team would you bet on to go far in the playoffs?

Yeah, I’m seeing us at 15th in ORB% at 24.2 on RealGM.

Very oddly, the Raptors are first at 31.2 (who the hell is doing all of that rebounding for them?) and the Bucks are last at 19.4. Seriously, how is that even possible with Mr. Antetokounmpo on the squad?

I guess it’s largely Jakob Poeltl for the Raptors. I hate that he’s averaging 17/12 for them on 60.8 percent FG shooting, all way over his career averages.

“If you had to choose between the Magic and their high level defense and below average offense or the Knicks with our below average defense and off the charts offense, which team would you bet on to go far in the playoffs?”

Us.

Calling a strategy in a salary capped league “Moneyball” is not something I quite understand. The whole idea of Moneyball as employed by Billy Beane was trying to win with less financial resources than your opponent, which does not apply to a salary capped league.

I’m not trying to be difficult here, I just don’t understand the construct. What does “Moneyball” mean to you? Does it basically mean “having Julius Randle on the team” or is there more to it than that?

Another lens to consider is the “season” page of B-R.

We are 20th in ORebs per 100 possessions at 9.9. Interestingly, teams below us include the Thunder, Wolves and Cavs. The Celts are only 0.4 above the Knicks and are 18th.

It means playing an offense no one else plays and winning extra games because no one bothers to specially prepare for it during the long, boring regular season. (And then when they do have time and inclination to prepare, not functioning at nearly as high a level — Hawks 2021 as an example.)

There are probably some personnel decisions and impacts that flow from that, but that’s its fundamental core.

Its opposite is just playing normally and winning games because you have better players who are better at playing normally. That’s what they do now.

“Moneyball” never had anything to do with Julius Randle.

Fun (or not so much fun) with advanced stats. No wonder we can so easily make them tell whatever story we want them to.

Another lens to consider is the “season” page of B-R.

We are 20th in ORebs per 100 possessions at 9.9. Interestingly, teams below us include the Thunder, Wolves and Cavs. The Celts are only 0.4 above the Knicks and are 18th.

I think it’s because we just make so many damn shots. Can’t get boards if the ball goes in.

It is now well over 4 weeks since Precious was injured, so the initial 2-4 week re-evaluation window has passed. I guess they really don’t want to take any chances with him. Thankfully, Sims is picking him up lately.

which team would you bet on to go far in the playoffs?

Traditional thinking says the game slows down and defense and rebounding wins in the playoffs. But that thinking might be outdated in today’s game. I certainly think it’s important still and that the game does become more defense oriented, but I guess I trust us to step up our defense more than I trust the Magic to suddenly become a great offensive machine?

So we went to the second round of the playoffs twice in a row and only didn’t make it to the conference finals due to massive amounts of injuries, including our best player breaking his hand. But Moneyball, y’all!

(not to mention that the Heat actually moneyballed their way to the NBA finals in 2023)

“Traditional thinking says the game slows down and defense and rebounding wins in the playoffs. But that thinking might be outdated in today’s game.”

Not really.

Cyber – just a little bit of context on my comment about Towns’ exterior defense, ie perimeter defense. He actually did a fantastic job of guarding someone on the perimeter, using his feet, and then blocking the shot.

I wanted to add at the time that it seemed like the kind of sequence that portended well for him being a 4 defensively when Mitch comes back. He was surprisingly able on that possession.

But in genrral he is terrible on defense. I’d be interested to see where the biggest leaks are. It feels like he rotates late and slowly.

I said “might” lol.

I don’t know. Grind them down teams rarely win it all, though. Knicks always came up short in the 90’s to teams that were better offensively. Not that those teams weren’t also good at defense but usually we were better but still lost because our offense wasn’t as good.

The teams that win it all are usually in the top 5 for both defense and offense but somehow it gets translated to defense is all that matters in the playoffs.

For me, I just trust we’ll get there.

I personally am not interested in Mitch Robinson coming back, playing major minutes, and re-clogging the lane. Luckily, I don’t think that’s going to happen; either his ankle isn’t going to heal — it’s a stress repetition injury and one surgery/rehab has already failed — or he’s going to be traded.

I ain’t giving up the open lane, KAT feeding cutters from the high post and trifecta line, and all the rest for a couple extra offensive rebounds and blocked shots.

I have no issue with him playing backup minutes, I guess. But reverting is not an option.

Thibs is going to have to do this without his vaunted “rim protection.” If he can’t, get someone who can.

Any theories on why Kolek was in the rotation instead of Dadiet last night?

He looks more polished on defense to me. Dadiet was great on those 2 defensive possessions against the Wizards in iso, but he doesn’t always finish with a good contest.

He’ll be in decent position then the ball handler will take a step back or fadeaway and Dadiet will jump straight up with his arms going straight up, or slightly to the side for some reason. The ball handler ends up with a ton of space and the basket is easily visible. Dadiet needs to close out that extra step or at least stick his arms towards the ball.

I’m sure there’s other stuff like Kolek understanding rotations better and I bet he looks great in practice based on his scouting report and just being 4 years older.

I’m not trying to be difficult here, I just don’t understand the construct. What does “Moneyball” mean to you? Does it basically mean “having Julius Randle on the team” or is there more to it than that?

E started off with the proposition that Thibs could never coach a team with a good offense. When the Knicks developed a team with a good offense, he had to adjust, so he argued that the Knicks only had a good offense because Thibs got them to play hard in the regular season and they were able to do hustlebunny shit to score. This was a glaring mistake because it could never work in the post season. Anyone who knew basketball could see that. The sky was simply blue. After it did work in the post season E has decided to declare victory

It is now well over 4 weeks since Precious was injured, so the initial 2-4 week re-evaluation window has passed. I guess they really don’t want to take any chances with him. Thankfully, Sims is picking him up lately.

Precious is expected to start practicing during the road trip.

Mitch is shooting the ball a bit. Can’t run yet. He’s also with the team.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/21/sports/knicks-receive-positive-injury-updates-on-precious-achiuwa-mitchell-robinson/

“The teams that win it all are usually in the top 5 for both defense and offense but somehow it gets translated to defense is all that matters in the playoffs.”

I don’t think anyone thinks that “defense is all that matters.” Only that defense is critically important and that teams that are all offense e.g. the D’Antoni Suns and Rockets, get exposed sooner or later. Our defense right now is pretty bad. If we are going to get past the second round, it has to be much, much better than it has been. If it doesn’t, I wouldn’t put a first round exit out of the question.

The good news is, I am pretty confident that it will get better. Thibs will see to that.

It’s bewildering we got KAT for the price we paid, and I loved the guys we sent out! But like, players of his caliber are the hardest thing to find in the NBA and we got him pretty painlessly. I’d be apoplectic as a Wolves fan (as best I can tell they mostly are).

OG is outplaying the hell out of the price we paid for him too. The one straggler remains Bridges, who did actually make a layup last night he theoretically could’ve been fouled on, but alas, he was not.

Also want to reiterate that Jamal Crawford was amazing. He started off good but really got in rhythm with Breen as the game went on. Really hope we keep him around for a while.

“Traditional thinking says the game slows down and defense and rebounding wins in the playoffs. But that thinking might be outdated in today’s game.”

Pace slowed down in the playoffs last year from 98.5 in the regular season to 92.6 in the playoffs. Others can do the other years if they’re so inclined; null hypothesis is that this happens pretty much every playoff season.

Jamal is a likeable guy and I could see it working out. Alas, he’s no Clyde.

I so want both Clyde and Breen to be there for a championship season.

“Precious is expected to start practicing during the road trip.

Mitch is shooting the ball a bit. Can’t run yet. He’s also with the team.”

Thanks, EB…I needed that!

Okay, well it’s a bit weird to frame that as “Moneyball” but I guess that is just a semantic debate and not all that interesting. I prefer having a high eFG% and low turnovers to a high offensive rebound rate and low turnovers just as you do. I’ve long clamored for a high eFG% offense and lo and behold, here it is.

Defensively, it still feels like the overall strategy is just kind of off. Need to do more ball hawking. The “stay with your man and don’t foul” approach isn’t really working. Thibs seems to be making some tweaks around the edges but I’m skeptical that the approach matches the personnel.

I also agree with E about Mitch. Mitch should be a situational player, a different look that we can throw at opponents if, say, Alperen Sengun is continually roasting you or if an opponent is bludgeoning you repeatedly with high screen actions. 20 MPG as a defensive specialist might be just the right role for him.

The one straggler remains Bridges, who did actually make a layup last night he theoretically could’ve been fouled on, but alas, he was not.

I think he’s been better the last few games about cutting into space without the ball to set himself up for that jumper, which he’s hitting as well as some people hit layups anyways. He’s 61% from 3-10ft and 60.5% from 11-16ft. That’s gotta be unsustainable, right?

But I’m never surprised when it goes in even off a bounce or a roll because it lands softly and has a beautiful backwards spin to it.

I still want to see him on ball more.

Prediction: OG is out with the arm thing and will be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks. Towns gets hurt before his return and we never seem them healthy at the same time again.

They’re both playing too well for this to continue.

Bridges’ shooting touch is definitely wildly impressive, there’s just only so much efficiency juice to squeeze out of 10-16 footers. He avoids the rim to an almost comical degree–I half-expect him to pull up (and make) a short mid ranger even when he’s out on his own in transition.

He’s definitely been better lately and his TS% would be .598 as is if he was making 37% of his 3PA, it’s just frustrating because it feels like there’s so much low-hanging fruit. I know he’s never been a big at-rim scorer but he’s taken it to a whole new level of avoidance this year.

The good news is if all he does is straighten out the 3PT shooting, we probably have the best offense in the NBA.

“Okay, well it’s a bit weird to frame that as “Moneyball” but I guess that is just a semantic debate and not all that interesting.”

I do think there is a “traditional” application of the term “Moneyball” in the NBA, even given the salary cap. I think that the Knicks, Heat, and Thunder are good examples of teams that have applied Moneyball principles, to varied effect.

E’s co-opting of the term to describe the 2020-24 Knicks is sort of self-serving. It clearly was working, and if the team had stood pat, retained iHart, and used their picks more judiciously, there was a clear path to being a top-3 team with decent championship odds. They got a bit unlucky with iHart and Presti pounced.

Bridges is .477 for his career from the short midrange (3-16′) so if anyone’s wondering if his current trend of shooting like Jokic from there will hold up: probably not.

That’s not even a bad number, it’s just that without getting to the foul line, one needs to be crazy efficient from 2 to be viable.

His FT/FGA is down a staggering 79% so we could be looking at an RJ Barret-esque TS if his shot diet stays the same while regressing to his career percentages.

To improve his 3pt% Bridges could just stop with the end of quarter heaves.

“Prediction: OG is out with the arm thing and will be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks. Towns gets hurt before his return and we never seem them healthy at the same time again.

They’re both playing too well for this to continue.”

What kind of person gets some kind of twisted pleasure by posting shit like this? Sort of like that guy who comes to a wedding and loudly criticizes the band and the food while cutting rancid farts and telling everyone that the marriage is doomed anyway so why bother having a good time?

If you take out the heaves, Mikal’s TS% goes up to .573. He’s taken 4. Only Kolek and Deuce have taken heaves and they’re both at 1.

Chris Paul hit slightly over 50% from midrange from age 27 till now. Same with KD. I doubt Mikal continues to hit 60% but maybe he’s improved enough to match those numbers with his lower volume and being able to pick his spots. Anyone know a midrange shooter that could be higher than those guys?

I remember there was a feature on Chris Paul and how good his mid range jumper is which listed the top 5 all time in mid range FG%. It wasn’t even that high, ranged from high 40’s into I believe barely above 50%. I remember Allan Houston was in the Top 5 along with guys like Dirk, Nash, KD and CP3.

I’m not all that worried about Mikal, beyond that he was never worth anywhere close to what we gave up for him.

20 MPG as a defensive specialist might be just the right role for him.

I imagine Thibs will try out some double big stuff with Precious first and if it’s successful you could do 16 minutes of mitch as backup C and some double big minutes and for playing Philly or Denver maybe you start Mitch at C

Re: mid-range, it seems that he’s not really being contested on lots of those attempts (hence the lack of FT attempts), and if that continues, he should be able to stay above 50%. If DeMar Derozan was allowed to take those shots with that much space, he’s be over 60% too. The key is that DeRozan gets to the line a lot on shots that don’t count as attempts. It would be okay if Mikal’s percentage in the midrange drops if he gets to the line more. If not, the only way for him to get his TS% up, or even maintain it at it’s current shitty level, will be to start hitting his 3’s.

Remarkably Mugsy Bogues made 57% of his mid range FGAs in 1996-97

To improve his 3pt% Bridges could just stop with the end of quarter heaves.

That would only bring him up to .329. The real solution would be to stop with the non-corner 3s since he is shooting a scintillating 20% on those (11/54).

What kind of person gets some kind of twisted pleasure by posting shit like this?

A miserable fool, I admit. It doesn’t give me pleasure, it’s just what I think will happen.

24 minutes of Mitch seems fine. I love Mitch but I don’t think we need 32 minutes of him.

I also am pretty skeptical we get much of anything from him this year. I hate to say that because obviously I love him but the writing seems to be on the wall.

Bridges is going to be fine. I think the shooting is just variance. The D can improve a bit but having him out there with OG and Hart makes for switching paradise. I think having a reliable interior defender would help them a lot.

Quite a smooth reentry for IHart last night. No rust looks like from the box score.

OG is 1st among guards in contested shots per game at 7.3, Dyson Daniels is 2nd at 6.4.

OG is 2nd among forwards in contested shots per game for players with at least 10 games, Dray is 1st but plays C 26% of the time by BkRef. He’s on both lists because NBA positional assignments are weird, the forward list has a bunch of centers on it.

OG is also 4th in deflections per game among players with at least 10 games.

He drops if you use per minute stats with a lot of bench players jumping him. There’s no per possession numbers, which would help offset the Knicks 30th ranked pace.

Anyone know a midrange shooter that could be higher than those guys?

Jokic’s touch inside the arc is absolutely bananas. He makes Shaq look inefficient from 2-point range. Over 60% from 3-10 in the last 3 full seasons. In 2023 he shot .675 on twos overall!

From the longer midrange, Durant is pretty much the GOAT. Long-2 FG% pretty caps around 50% for the best of the best, so it’s still not a great shot unless you can draw some Embiid-like fouls.

“I imagine Thibs will try out some double big stuff with Precious first and if it’s successful you could do 16 minutes of mitch as backup C and some double big minutes and for playing Philly or Denver maybe you start Mitch at C.”

Great. Now I can’t stop thinking about Oreos. Grrrreeeeaaaat.

Unfortunately, I don’t think Mikal is going to be fine unless he fixes his fugly form on above-the-break 3s. Once teams figure out he can’t shoot from there anymore, they’ll cover him more closely on the 2s and his percentage there will drop, plus it will clog things up for everyone else.

Ultimately, though it’s sort of marginally ok now, a shot diet of 10-16 foot jumpers, never getting to the line, and laying full-on brick from the above the break trifecta line isn’t viable.

“A miserable fool, I admit.”

Please try harder not to be one.

“It doesn’t give me pleasure, it’s just what I think will happen.”

No you don’t. It’s just the latest installment of your vapid, utterly predictable and unfunny, and largely unwanted schtick.

There are ways to be constructively pessimistic without resorting to this kind of dumb shit. I think most of us would greatly appreciate it if you tried harder to find that balance. For example, Mikal has not been good, and it’s fair to feel that his game has topped out and on the decline, making the trade for him a massive blunder. Any way you can try to see the nuance here?

Wow. Matt Gaetz withdrew. I was almost looking forward to watching the shitshow.

After only one game, Jamal Crawford has already jumped ahead of Alan Hahn on my list of preferred Clyde successors. Though Monica McNutt is probably still at the top. Wally is dead last. Behind Pagliacci.

Jamal’s awesome.

After only one game, Jamal Crawford has already jumped ahead of Alan Hahn on my list of preferred Clyde successors. Though Monica McNutt is probably still at the top. Wally is dead last. Behind Pagliacci.

To be fair, he was already ahead of Wally

On the one hand, it could be SSS; on the other hand, his form based on the eye test has disintegrated … but in any event, Mikal’s trifecta percentage ex-corners has also fallen off a cliff:

’23 Phoenix: .312
’23 Nets: .358
’24 Nets: .355
’25 Knicks: .212

After only one game, Jamal Crawford has already jumped ahead of Alan Hahn on my list of preferred Clyde successors. Though Monica McNutt is probably still at the top. Wally is dead last. Behind Pagliacci.

Oh come on Alan, you’re too good a critic for this. You’ve never even heard my telecast voice! That’s where I really shine; in written form I am merely the Pretty Good Clown Pagliacci.

being that I am in Phoenix…i had to choose between ESPN and the home telecast…i went with ESPN and had to listen to that asshole Scalabrine…who hates the knicks..he’s putrid…

It’s interesting here…the telecasts are on “free TV” since I am on youtube tv…I don’t get that station via streaming…so i had to go out and buy a modern day rabbit ear antenna so I can watch Suns games…

“’23 Phoenix: .312”

nice..mikal’s 15 game sample size is meaningful…but RJ’s is not…only the 32 from last season is real…oh wait…i forgot..its because he isn’t being used properly…nevermind..

Yeah, Jamal was very good last night. It’s such a contrast to Wally who feels like he might be the world’s largest naturally occurring source of testosterone….

Not sure I am ready to commit for the long term but we could definitely do so much worse…

Oh come on Alan, you’re too good a critic for this. You’ve never even heard my telecast voice! That’s where I really shine; in written form I am merely the Pretty Good Clown Pagliacci.

Hey, you’re on the list to begin with, and ahead of Wally!

Jamal Crawford is an MSG broadcaster now? He was a highly-flawed player for the Knicks, but I always rooted for him so hard because he was so likable. He seemed like a supremely intelligent person OFF the court. (Was never sure why he took so many dumb shots on the court, though). I may have to watch a game just for him:)

I think he is filling in on the road. Not sure what the plan is with Jamal. However, as Breen referenced, he is one of the most well liked guys in the NBA in the past couple decades…

With Chet Holmgren out, I suppose that Isaiah Hartenstein is about to become the starting center for the 2025 NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

And Dyson Daniels has had a total of two steals over his past three games. So much for that dream.

Jamal would have been great as a Knick if he had been a 6th man, which is the role he was best suited for.

I mean, he averaged 18/3/4 for us over 37 minutes per game for the five seasons he was with us…….so that’s pretty good, right?

Jamal was a wrong era guy. With his shooting skill, if you Morey out that shot chart I bet he racks up a few .600+ TS% seasons. Dude took over a quarter of his shots from the long midrange area (and hit them at a nice clip, but still).

He was fun to watch though, one of the earlier guys I rooted for in fact, and was great last night on the call.

Jamal was a bit of an empty bucket but quite a lovable one

Jamal was a wrong era guy. With his shooting skill, if you Morey out that shot chart I bet he racks up a few .600+ TS% seasons. Dude took over a quarter of his shots from the long midrange area (and hit them at a nice clip, but still).

He was fun to watch though, one of the earlier guys I rooted for in fact, and was great last night on the call.

He retired 4 years ago still taking 25% of his shots from 16-23ft. It didn’t really make a difference.

Crawford’s 52 pt game against Miami is one of the greatest performances by a Knick I’ve ever seen, at one point during the game he made I believe 16 consecutive field goals.

Allan Houston would be a borderline HOFer if he played in today’s game with a better shot chart.

As much as I love watching Brunson and even Melo when he was on fire nobody I enjoyed watching more than Allan Houston.

Speaking of Crawford, who has the best crossover in the game right now?

I don’t see much crossover art anymore, not the way Jamal or Iverson juked people out of their shoes. Now it’s a simple cross, then go. Probably more effective, just not much fun.

Maybe I just watch too much Knicks basketball with their history of garbage guards and then Brunson who isn’t that kind of guard.

I would go with elegant yet ineffectual for Jamal. Aesthetics were off the charts.

“Speaking of Crawford, who has the best crossover in the game right now?

I don’t see much crossover art anymore, not the way Jamal or Iverson juked people out of their shoes. Now it’s a simple cross, then go. Probably more effective, just not much fun.

Maybe I just watch too much Knicks basketball with their history of garbage guards and then Brunson who isn’t that kind of guard.”

Gotta be Kyrie, right?

I think appearance has something to do with popularity, despite it being a game entirely based on performance. Jamal kind of looks like one of those androids in iRobot that are designed to seem friendly and non-threatening. That has to have something to do with people’s affection for him, because his game was exactly the kind to infuriate most Kbloggers.

Speaking of Crawford, who has the best crossover in the game right now?

Maybe Kyrie or Ja? Steph has a filthy crossover too but he RARELY uses it

i think lamelo’s handle is up there…not sure specifically on the cross over…

Jamal was a cornerstone of one of the most pathetic Knick teams ever assembled, the 2007-2008 Knicks. Some of the Phil Jackson assembled teams were even worse, but those Crawford/Marbury/Eddy Curry/Zack Randolph/Quentin Richardson/Fred Jones Knicks was probably the most pitiful iteration of the Knicks ever, because they were meant to be a finished product. Phil was at least ostensibly building towards something when he assembled a -9.5 SRS team.

That 2007-2008 Isiah Thomas constructed team had Jerome James, Eddy Curry, AND Jared Jeffries on it.

Kyrie is probably the default answer for any ballhandling

Mikal is the new iRobot version of a friendly, nonthreatening NBA player, only this one was given supermodel eyes.

Howard Beck has an article on the Warriors rotation up on the ringer that the minutes police will probably enjoy

Dolan paid $92,000,000 in luxury tax for that 2008 team. It was so luxurious. They even had snap-away sweats and everything.

Any theories on why Kolek was in the rotation instead of Dadiet last night?

Maybe its matchups? At Washington, Kolek would probably have to guard Brogdon or Poole. At Phoenix it might be Jones or Allen.

all time fave (recency bias maybe)…

edit: looks like there’s a whole youtube genre of this stuff…why not…

Somebody start fighting so that I can tell you to knock it off so we can all enjoy what is happening to the Sixers….

(Although I don’t want PG-13 hurt)

OG is outplaying the hell out of the price we paid for him too.

Yes at $37.2M for 0.5 BPM he’s proving to be one of the best bargains in the NBA.

Of course I know BPM doesn’t capture his defensive prowess. For that you have to check out our 116 DRtg, good for 21st in the league.

Who have we had since Ewing who was a better defender than OG?

I find him a lot of fun to watch and I think bemoaning the extra 5 million we threw at him a little nitty. If he can avoid getting injured I predict we will all be quite happy with him at the end of the year.

Who have we had since Ewing who was a better defender than OG?

Camby, Chandler, Mitch, Hartenstein, and Noel, off the top of my head.

And really it’s a lot more than $5M. I thought he was great value at $18M, put it that way.

OG individual performance on D has been outstanding (EB posted the #’s).

And yet our defense sucks.

Solve for X.

X = the impact of one outstanding wing defender is very limited.

That’s why they don’t get paid the big bucks.

OG is the 31st highest paid player in the league. He makes less than Fred Van Vleet, Zach Lavine and Ben Simmons, slightly more than Michael Porter Jr and DeAndre Ayton, and about the same as Brandon Ingram.

He’s probably not a great bargain nor an egregious overpay when you look at the other players who make around the same money. He’s probably giving you something like market value. If he were to go down with an injury right now we would probably fucking suck pretty bad, so I’m going to lean towards “worth the money.” At any rate there are way worse ways to spend $36M on an NBA player.

How fun, it’s Julius and DDV against RJ. All our pals in one telecast.

I think people won’t feel so bad about OG’s deal once the cap goes up. It’s going to be a sea-change in the next few years.

Also, some of us don’t feel bad about the deal even as is. Dude is great, if slightly limited as a creator.

I just want to take back my enthusiasm for watching a Raptors-Wolves game. It’s very painfully G-League. I mean, really bad basketball.

And yet our defense sucks.

Giannis’s OBPM is 6.7, top-10 in the league, the Bucks offense is 18th in the league. By the same logic, Giannis sucks at offense.

Camby, Chandler, Mitch, Hartenstein, and Noel, off the top of my head.

The defense with Hartenstein in the month before OG got there would have been dead last.

Hubert, I hear you, but players of OG’s caliber are not available for 18 million or 25 million.

If I had stipulated wing defender the answer would be easy. He is clearly the best wing stopper I have ever seen on the Knicks.

And again, a hell of a lot of fun to watch.

How fun, it’s Julius and DDV against RJ. All our pals in one telecast.

I was excited to watch it but it’s been a real slog of a game

People say Jared McCain is a good offensive player, yet the Sixers have the 30th ranked offense. Curious!

Those old pals have combined for 8 turnovers in one half.

Chandler’s years with the Knicks, the defense finished 5th, 18th, and 24th.

The first year of Hartenstein we finished 19th. We also had Mitch play 59 games.

And if you’re complaining about OGs OBPM… you do not want to look at Noel’s.

All of Camby’s defenses seem to have been good throughout his prime.

He makes less than Fred Van Vleet,

BPM:

FVV – 3.5
OG – 0.5

Giannis’s OBPM is 6.7, top-10 in the league, the Bucks offense is 18th in the league. By the same logic, Giannis sucks at offense.

Total fail.

Hubert, I hear you, but players of OG’s caliber are not available for 18 million or 25 million.

I see a lot of 0.5 BPM guys available for the vet min.

But what is his Wins Produced though?

I think the impact of his defense is real and he certainly isn’t hurting the offense.

I don’t know, I can agree to disagree on this one. Love watching him and his value seems clear to me.

Hubert, on the one hand you admit that BPM does a poor job of capturing defensive value, but then continuously use BPM to make your case.

Most of Fred VanVleet’s BPM value comes from his DBPM, 71% of it to be exact. OG’s OBPM is almost identical to FVV’s, but FVV is rated as a 2.5 DBPM player while OG is actually rated as a negative defender.

DBPM is a junk stat and fails the smell test over and over again.

Dennis Rodman had a 0.0 BPA on the ‘96 Bulls. They paid him 1/3 of their cap for it and everything turned out fine.

Malik Monk has a higher DBPM than OG

TJ McConnell has a higher DBPM than Rudy Gobert.

Jalen Duren has a higher DBPM than Anthony Davis.

And so on.

rj doing a lot again

OG individual performance on D has been outstanding (EB posted the #’s).

And yet our defense sucks.

Solve for X.

X = the impact of one outstanding wing defender is very limited.

It’s a logical fallacy to conclude that because our defense isn’t good OG’s good individual defense isn’t helping. We are not at the bottom of the league in defense. Our defense could be and probably would be much worse without him.

wrong sport – but holy shit is that some weather going on at the cleveland/pittsburgh game…

just looked at RJ’s stat line, looks pretty offensively efficient, six defensive rebounds…whoa, 3 steals…

Saw a bunch of RJ highlights on Twitter. Amazing game. So happy for him.

#maplemamba

A lot of the Players on Steelers/Browns going to end up sick

Julius and Gobert are… uh… not on the same page:

https://bsky.app/profile/wolvesclips.bsky.social/post/3lbiypsewpc2f

That second play was the good ol run into the defense and throw the ball away.

Wolves fans are pretty fed up with both Randle and Gobert. This was also another stinker from DDV.

RJ haterz lol

I am kind of imagining KAT watching that game savoring a glass of 1800 tequila and thanking someone he is a Knick

I’m savoring a glass of Ocho Blanco…

I mean, we’ve seen this from RJ before. He’s capable of going off like this. He’s also capable of going 6-22 or similar for three games in a row. Such is the RJ Barrett experience.

Not really with TOR next to Scottie Barnes

People say Jared McCain is a good offensive player, yet the Sixers have the 30th ranked offense. Curious!

Total fail, part 2.

Why does a average NBA player generate so much talk?

Well on here, nobody in the general media seems to care about him

It’s a logical fallacy to conclude that because our defense isn’t good OG’s good individual defense isn’t helping.

And it’s a mischaracterization of my statement to suggest that was my conclusion.

You quoted it. It’s right there.

Congrats to Aaron Judge a 2x MVP – a player actually worth the discussion

Dennis Rodman had a 0.0 BPA on the ‘96 Bulls. They paid him 1/3 of their cap for it and everything turned out fine.

Jesus of all the fails 🤦🏻‍♂️

This one fails both obvious logic (we’re not a 72 win team) and facts:

Rodman earned $2.5M on that team, or 10% of the salary cap.

That equates to $14M in today’s salary, and at that rate OG would be just fine, too.

Jesus of all the fails 🤦🏻‍♂️

Hubert, Rodman got paid 1/3 for his 0.0 BPM, i.e. after he did it, and the Bulls didn’t falter. They repeated, then repeated again. The stat is useful, but it obviously doesn’t capture the full effect of certain players. The condescending emojis feel great to post, I’m sure, but, c’mon, as if it’s not bad enough what’s happening to the Sixers.

Hubie why are you saying OG is overpaid because the Knicks team defense isn’t good if you don’t mean to say his individual defense isn’t worth the money. He’s probably somewhat overpaid. It is what it is. The Knicks are a good team what is the point of crying about this constantly?

Like at least cry about it after we lose instead of after we win

Precisely, Donnie. They didn’t falter bc they paid him after they built the 72 win team. We paid OG after we built a 50 win team, so it’s a ridiculous comparison. Sequence matters.

Rodman is a good example of how DBPM doesn’t capture a good positional defender’s value.

Rodman didn’t block shots or get lots of steals, but was one of the greatest positional defenders of his era and played heavy minutes on some of the best defensive teams of all time despite contributing nothing on offense. He was truly a game changing defender, but because DBPM is a boxscore-derived statistic, his career is full of DBPM numbers under 1.0.

DBPM routinely finds players like Darrell Walker and Vinnie Johnson to be Rodman’s equals as defenders.

And yet our defense sucks.

Solve for X.

X = the impact of one outstanding wing defender is very limited.

forget all the fancy metrics hubert. over the past five seasons across several thousand minutes and amid differing lineup context, og’s teams have allowed over 4 points fewer pts per 100 when he plays than when he sits.

even this year, with its irretrievably noisy sample, og’s team again allows 3 points fewer per 100 when he plays. this, despite the fact that every other nyk starter shows the reverse effect.

four points per 100, or three for that matter, is not a very limited impact. four points of net rating is the difference between 41 and 51 wins and three gets you 48. is it conceivable that a knick team with kat, jalen, mikal, josh and random defender x would suck 3-4 points worse and be bottom 3 in the nba? it sure as hell is. it is almost always possible for a defense to suck worse than it does, and very possible from ours. every point matters.

you’re allowed to doubt it. but the dbpm and the faux syllogisms are bullshit.

The Knicks are a good team what is the point of crying about this constantly?

I haven’t initiated a single conversation about OG’s worth. Every day someone comes on here to troll “people” who think we overpaid him.

Stop trolling and this will go away.

Troll every day and it won’t.

forget all the fancy metrics hubert. over the past five seasons across several thousand minutes and amid differing lineup context, og’s teams have allowed over 4 points fewer pts per 100 when he plays than when he sits.

Tell me what I’m doing wrong then bc this looks like over the past 5 years Toronto was actually 0.72 pts better defensively without him:

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612761&Season=2023-24,2022-23,2021-22,2020-21,2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1628384&>

If winning 72 games is the barometer, then everybody is overpaid.

The point that you aren’t conceding is that a good team can have a low BPM player play 2000 minutes, even if they are taking up a huge chunk of the cap. Rodman is but one example, and OG is, I think, another, as the Knicks seem to be much better with him on the court ever since he arrived.

Besides, wasn’t your hesitation about paying OG this summer more about durability than about on-court contribution?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2021/on-off/

If you look at the Raps’ opponent offensive rating allowed, it’s lower every year with OG on the floor. This seems like the easiest, most clear cut way to see that stat. Some years more than others, but every season I looked at, the Raps allowed a lower offensive rating with OG on yr floor

Tell me what I’m doing wrong then bc this looks like over the past 5 years Toronto was actually 0.72 pts better defensively without him

you checked the box that only includes games he played, but important information comes when you see what happens when a player is out and his teammates play without him. excluding those minutes leaves you with both a more confounded and far smaller control sample.

and, yes, there are theoretically confounders that can also seep in through bias from the games not played somehow systematically differing from the games played sample, but it is easy to show that those effects are almost always far smaller over large samples like this compared to leaning in the collinearity and pruning the sample to only games played. this is why drapm confirms his net effect post lineup/opponent adjustment and regularization.

Last year with the Knicks it was overwhelming— opponents had -14.5 points lower offensive rating when OG was on the floor. That’s small sample size noise for sure but jeeez.

This year so far it’s -3.0.

Consistent and repeatable across every season of his career that I looked at.

Recent Posts

Recent Comments

Archives

169 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.11.21)”