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The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
  2. Maurizio Baussola & Chiara Mussida, 2014. "Transitions in the Labour Market: Discouragement Effect and Individual Characteristics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 28(2), pages 209-232, June.
  3. Yvonne Adema & Kees Folmer & Gerrit Hugo Heuvelen & Sonny Kuijpers & Rob Luginbuhl & Bas Scheer, 2020. "Unemployment Forecasts: Room for Improvement?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 403-417, September.
  4. Pincheira, Pablo & Hernández, Ana María, 2019. "Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors," MPRA Paper 97855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
  6. Troy Davig & Jose Mustre-del-Rio, 2013. "The shadow labor supply and its implications for the unemployment rate," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2, August.
  7. Murat Tasci, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Long Run: Unemployment Flows and the Natural Rate," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1233, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  8. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2015. "The Ins and Outs of Icelandic Unemployment," Economics wp69, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  9. Pawel M. Krolikowski & Kurt G. Lunsford, 2024. "Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 462-480, April.
  10. Hie Joo Ahn & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered," NBER Working Papers 31241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Oscar Claveria & Ivana Lolic & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra & Petar Soric, 2020. "“Economic determinants of employment sentiment: A socio-demographic analysis for the euro area”," AQR Working Papers 2012001, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2020.
  12. Tomaz Cajner & Andrew Figura & Brendan M. Price & David Ratner & Alison E. Weingarden, 2020. "Reconciling Unemployment Claims with Job Losses in the First Months of the COVID-19 Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Leland D. Crane & Emily Green & Molly Harnish & Will McClennan & Paul E. Soto & Betsy Vrankovich & Jacob Williams, 2024. "Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Bas Scheer, 2022. "Addressing Unemployment Rate Forecast Errors in Relation to the Business Cycle," CPB Discussion Paper 434, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  15. Y. Saks, 2016. "Socio-economic transitions on the labour market : a European benchmarking exercise," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 41-58, December.
  16. Christopher L. Smith, 2013. "The dynamics of labor market polarization," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Fiaschi, Davide & Tealdi, Cristina, 2021. "A General Methodology to Measure Labour Market Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 14254, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  18. Ayşegül Şahin & Murat Tasci & Jin Yan, 2021. "Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections," NBER Working Papers 28445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Ilias Georgakopoulos, 2019. "Income and wealth inequality in Malta: evidence from micro data," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
  20. Vincent Sterk, 2016. "The Dark Corners of the Labor Market," Discussion Papers 1603, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  21. Sterk, Vincent, 2016. "The dark corners of the labor market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86244, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  22. D’Amuri, Francesco & Marcucci, Juri, 2017. "The predictive power of Google searches in forecasting US unemployment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 801-816.
  23. Bruce Fallick & Pawel Krolikowski, 2022. "Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
  24. Kishor, N. Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Nam, Gooan & Rizi, Majid Haghani, 2022. "The local employment effect of house prices: Evidence from U.S. States," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  25. Gábor Pintér, 2019. "House Prices and Job Losses," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 991-1013.
  26. G. C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Jan C. Ours, 2021. "Beyond Okun’s law: output growth and labor market flows," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1387-1409, March.
  27. Brent Meyer & Murat Tasci, 2015. "Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States: use flow rates, mind the trend," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  28. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  29. Lunsford, Kurt G., 2015. "Forecasting residential investment in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 276-285.
  30. Simionescu Mihaela, 2015. "Kalman Filter or VAR Models to Predict Unemployment Rate in Romania?," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 61(3), pages 3-21, June.
  31. Chiara Mussida & Carlo Lucarelli, 2014. "Dynamics and Performance of the Italian Labour Market," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 33-54.
  32. Barnichon, Regis & Garda, Paula, 2016. "Forecasting unemployment across countries: The ins and outs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 165-183.
  33. Reuben Ellul, 2018. "Forecasting unemployment rates in Malta: A labour market flows approach," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
  34. Das, Tirthatanmoy & Polachek, Solomon W., 2017. "Estimating labor force joiners and leavers using a heterogeneity augmented two-tier stochastic frontier," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 156-172.
  35. Ayşegül Şahin & Murat Tasci, 2020. "The Unemployment Cost of COVID-19: How High and How Long?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(09), May.
  36. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2021. "Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle," NBER Working Papers 29222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Robert Dixon & Guay Lim, 2016. "Modelling the dynamics of regional employment–population ratios and their commonality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(2), pages 338-354, February.
  38. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 101-123, February.
  39. Laura Barbieri & Chiara Mussida, 2018. "Structural differences across macroregions: an empirical investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 215-246, May.
  40. Vincent Sterk, 2015. "The Dark Corners of the Labor Market," 2015 Meeting Papers 798, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  41. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.
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