(Version: 4.2) 30 DEC
New Additions to Analysis
There is a known issue with games on 31 December. For some reason they are now shoing up in the ESPN API. If they do not show up on the day of the game, I will have to add them in by hand and the scoring will be delayed until I can add in the scores.
Here are the instructions:
- ‘0’ means you have 100% confidence that team ‘A’ will win.
- ‘100’ means you have 100% confidence that team ‘B’ will win.
- ‘50’ means that you have no idea who will win.
- You may update your selections. Selections made after the a game has started will not be counted.
- Provide an email and pin in order to see your current selections in the 'Selections' tab.
- As games are played, you will be able to see other people's selections.
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Scores will be made using the Brier score. Essentially the more confident you are in a correct pick, the better you will score will be. However, don’t be overconfident and wrong, be cause you will be penalized.
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The lower the score the better.
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Here is the formula.
Sumall games(t)[ft-ot]^2
Where
S = total score
n = number of games
t = specific game
ft = probability that you assigned the home team winning of game t
ot = 0 if home team lost, 1 if home team won
Notes:
Lower score is better
You are essentially penalized the squared difference between the outcome of the home team (0/1) and the probability you assigned of the home team winning.