[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/ skip to main content
research-article

Energy procurement strategies in the presence of intermittent sources

Published: 16 June 2014 Publication History

Abstract

The increasing penetration of intermittent, unpredictable renewable energy sources such as wind energy, poses significant challenges for utility companies trying to incorporate renewable energy in their portfolio. In this work, we study the problem of conventional energy procurement in the presence of intermittent renewable resources. We model the problem as a variant of the newsvendor problem, in which the presence of renewable resources induces supply side uncertainty, and in which conventional energy may be procured in three stages to balance supply and demand. We compute closed-form expressions for the optimal energy procurement strategy and study the impact of increasing renewable penetration, and of proposed changes to the structure of electricity markets. We explicitly characterize the impact of a growing renewable penetration on the procurement policy by considering a scaling regime that models the aggregation of unpredictable renewable sources. A key insight from our results is that there is a separation between the impact of the stochastic nature of this aggregation, and the impact of market structure and forecast accuracy. Additionally, we study the impact on procurement of two proposed changes to the market structure: the addition and the placement of an intermediate market. We show that addition of an intermediate market does not necessarily increase the efficiency of utilization of renewable sources. Further, we show that the optimal placement of the intermediate market is insensitive to the level of renewable penetration.

References

[1]
K. Arrow, T. Harris, and J. Marschak. Optimal inventory policy. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pages 250--272, 1951.
[2]
F. Baldovin and A. Stella. Central limit theorem for anomalous scaling due to correlations. Physical Review E, 75(2), 2007.
[3]
J. Barton and D. Infield. Energy storage and its use with intermittent renewable energy. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 19(2):441--448, 2004.
[4]
E. Y. Bitar, R. Rajagopal, P. P. Khargonekar, K. Poolla, and P. Varaiya. Bringing wind energy to market. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 27(3):1225--1235, 2012.
[5]
G. Bowden, P. Barker, V. Shestopal, and J. Twidell. The weibull distribution function and wind power statistics. Wind Engineering, 7:85--98, 1983.
[6]
D. W. Cai and A. Wierman. Inefficiency in forward markets with supply friction. In IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2013.
[7]
California independent service operator market processes. 2011.
[8]
J. Cochran, L. Bird, J. Heeter, and D. Arent. Integrating variable renewable energy in electric power markets: Best practices from international experience. Technical Report NREL/TP6A00-53732, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2012.
[9]
E. A. DeMeo, G. A. Jordan, C. Kalich, J. King, M. R. Milligan, C. Murley, B. Oakleaf, and M. J. Schuerger. "Accommodating wind's natural behavior". IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, 5(6):59--67, 2007.
[10]
S. Fink, C. Mudd, K. Porter, and B. Morgenstern. Wind energy curtailment case studies, 2009. NREL subcontract report NREL/SR-550-46716.
[11]
Western Wind and Solar Integration Study. Technical report, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO., 2010.
[12]
C. M. Goldie and C. Klüppelberg. Subexponential distributions. A Practical Guide to Heavy Tails: Statistical Techniques and Applications, pages 435--459, 1998.
[13]
S. Graves, H. Meal, S. Dasu, and Y. Qui. Two-stage production planning in a dynamic environment. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, 1985.
[14]
Global wind 2009 report. Renewable Energy House, Brussels, Belgium, 2009.
[15]
C. Harris. Electricity Markets: Pricing, Structures and Economics (The Wiley Finance Series). Wiley, 2006.
[16]
W. Hausman. Sequential decision problems: A model to exploit existing forecasters. Management Science, pages 93--111, 1969.
[17]
D. Heath and P. Jackson. Modeling the evolution of demand forecasts with application to safety stock analysis in production/distribution systems. IIE Transactions-Industrial Engineering Research and Development, 26(3):17--30, 1994.
[18]
J. P. Hennessey Jr. Some aspects of wind power statistics. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 16(2):119--128, 1977.
[19]
M. Khouja. The single-period (news-vendor) problem: literature review and suggestions for future research. Omega, 27(5):537--553, 1999.
[20]
J. H. Kim and W. B. Powell. Optimal energy commitments with storage and intermittent supply. Operations Research, 59(6):1347--1360, 2011.
[21]
D. S. Kirschen and G. Strbac. Fundamentals of Power System Economics. Wiley, 2004.
[22]
N. Li, L. Chen, and S. Low. Optimal demand response based on utility maximization in power networks. In IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2011.
[23]
S. Madaeni and R. Sioshansi. The impacts of stochastic programming and demand response on wind integration. Energy Systems, 4(2):109--124, 2013.
[24]
S. Meyn, M. Negrete-Pincetic, G. Wang, A. Kowli, and E. Shafieepoorfard. The value of volatile resources in electricity markets. In IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, pages 1029--1036, 2010.
[25]
J. Nair, S. Adlakha, and A. Wierman. Energy procurement strategies in the presence of intermittent sources. http://users.cms.caltech.edu/ adamw/papers/Wind-preprint.pdf, 2014. Full version.
[26]
D. M. Newbery. Competition, contracts, and entry in the electricity spot market. The RAND Journal of Economics, pages 726--749, 1998.
[27]
E. L. Porteus. Foundations of Stochastic Inventory Theory. Stanford Business Books, 2002.
[28]
R. Rajagopal, E. E. Bitar, P. Varaiya, and F. Wu. Risk-limiting dispatch for integrating renewable power. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 44(1):615--628, 2013.
[29]
Southern california edison renewable energy. 2011.
[30]
N. Secomandi and S. Kekre. Optimal energy procurement in spot and forward markets. Working Paper, 2012.
[31]
K. Sigman. A primer on heavy-tailed distributions. Queueing Syst. Theory Appl., 33(1--3):261--275, 1999.
[32]
E. Silver, D. Pyke, R. Peterson, et al. Inventory management and production planning and scheduling, volume 3. Wiley New York, 1998.
[33]
R. Sioshansi and D. Hurlbut. Market protocols in ERCOT and their effect on wind generation. Energy Policy, 38(7):3192--3197, 2010.
[34]
S. Stoft. Power System Economics: Designing Markets for Electricity. Wiley-IEEE Press, 2002.
[35]
S. Umarov, C. Tsallis, and S. Steinberg. On a q-central limit theorem consistent with nonextensive statistical mechanics. Milan journal of mathematics, 76(1):307--328, 2008.
[36]
P. Varaiya, F. Wu, and J. Bialek. Smart operation of smart grid: Risk-limiting dispatch. Proceedings of the IEEE, 99(1):40--57, 2011.
[37]
T. Wang, A. Atasu, and M. Kurtulus. A multiordering newsvendor model with dynamic forecast evolution. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 14(3):472--484, 2012.
[38]
R. Wiser. Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States - A Status Report with Data Through 2007. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL Paper LBNL-154E, 2008.
[39]
Y. Zhou, A. Scheller-Wolf, N. Secomandi, and S. Smith. Managing wind-based electricity generation in the presence of storage and transmission capacity, 2012. Under submission.

Cited By

View all
  • (2023)Towards Forecast Markets For Enhanced Peer-to-Peer Electricity Trading2023 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm)10.1109/SmartGridComm57358.2023.10333930(1-7)Online publication date: 31-Oct-2023
  • (2023)Profit Maximization of Retailers with Intermittent Renewable Sources and Energy Storage Systems in Deregulated Electricity Market with Modern Optimization Techniques: A ReviewRenewable Energy Focus10.1016/j.ref.2023.10049247(100492)Online publication date: Dec-2023
  • (2021)On incorporating forecasts into linear state space model Markov decision processesPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences10.1098/rsta.2019.0430379:2202(20190430)Online publication date: 7-Jun-2021
  • Show More Cited By

Index Terms

  1. Energy procurement strategies in the presence of intermittent sources

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image ACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review
    ACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review  Volume 42, Issue 1
    Performance evaluation review
    June 2014
    569 pages
    ISSN:0163-5999
    DOI:10.1145/2637364
    Issue’s Table of Contents
    • cover image ACM Conferences
      SIGMETRICS '14: The 2014 ACM international conference on Measurement and modeling of computer systems
      June 2014
      614 pages
      ISBN:9781450327893
      DOI:10.1145/2591971
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

    Publisher

    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 16 June 2014
    Published in SIGMETRICS Volume 42, Issue 1

    Check for updates

    Author Tags

    1. electricity markets
    2. newsvendor problem
    3. procurement
    4. renewable energy
    5. wind energy

    Qualifiers

    • Research-article

    Funding Sources

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • Downloads (Last 12 months)29
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)1
    Reflects downloads up to 19 Dec 2024

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    Cited By

    View all
    • (2023)Towards Forecast Markets For Enhanced Peer-to-Peer Electricity Trading2023 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm)10.1109/SmartGridComm57358.2023.10333930(1-7)Online publication date: 31-Oct-2023
    • (2023)Profit Maximization of Retailers with Intermittent Renewable Sources and Energy Storage Systems in Deregulated Electricity Market with Modern Optimization Techniques: A ReviewRenewable Energy Focus10.1016/j.ref.2023.10049247(100492)Online publication date: Dec-2023
    • (2021)On incorporating forecasts into linear state space model Markov decision processesPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences10.1098/rsta.2019.0430379:2202(20190430)Online publication date: 7-Jun-2021
    • (2017)A Multi-Timescale and Bilevel Coordination Approach for Matching Uncertain Wind Supply With EV Charging DemandIEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering10.1109/TASE.2016.258518014:2(694-704)Online publication date: Apr-2017
    • (2017)Nash-equilibrium electricity portfolios in the smart grid: A genetic annealing solution2017 5th International Istanbul Smart Grid and Cities Congress and Fair (ICSG)10.1109/SGCF.2017.7947601(56-59)Online publication date: Apr-2017
    • (2016)Incentivizing intelligent customer behavior in smart-gridsProceedings of the Twenty-Fifth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence10.5555/3060621.3060675(380-386)Online publication date: 9-Jul-2016
    • (2015)Wind farm portfolio optimization under network capacity constraintsEuropean Journal of Operational Research10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.080247:2(560-574)Online publication date: Dec-2015
    • (2019)Convex Prophet InequalitiesACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review10.1145/3305218.330525046:2(85-86)Online publication date: 17-Jan-2019
    • (2019)Convex Prophet InequalitiesACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review10.1145/3305218.330523346:2(39-41)Online publication date: 17-Jan-2019
    • (2019)Temperature Overloads in Power Grids Under Uncertainty: A Large Deviations ApproachIEEE Transactions on Control of Network Systems10.1109/TCNS.2019.29224926:3(1161-1173)Online publication date: Sep-2019
    • Show More Cited By

    View Options

    Login options

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    Media

    Figures

    Other

    Tables

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media