[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/ skip to main content
research-article

Informed Options Trading Prior to Takeover Announcements: : Insider Trading?

Published: 01 December 2019 Publication History

Abstract

We quantify the pervasiveness of informed trading activity in target companies’ equity options before the announcements of 1,859 U.S. takeovers between 1996 and 2012. About 25% of all takeovers have positive abnormal volumes, which are greater for short-dated, out-of-the-money calls, consistent with bullish directional trading before the announcement. Over half of this abnormal activity is unlikely due to speculation, news and rumors, trading by corporate insiders, leakage in the stock market, deal predictability, or beneficial ownership filings by activist investors. We also examine the characteristics of option trades litigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for alleged illegal insider trading. Although the characteristics of such trades closely resemble the patterns of abnormal option volume in the U.S. takeover sample, we find that the SEC litigates only about 8% of all deals in it.
This paper was accepted by Lauren Cohen, finance.

References

[1]
Acharya VV, Johnson TC (2010) More insiders, more insider trading: Evidence from private-equity buyouts. J. Financial Econom. 98(3):500–523.
[2]
Agrawal A, Nasser T (2012) Insider trading in takeover targets. J. Corporate Finance 18(3):598–625.
[3]
Ahern KR (2017) Information networks: Evidence from illegal insider trading tips. J. Financial Econom. 125(1):26–47.
[4]
Ambrose BW, Megginson WL (1992) The role of asset structure, ownership structure, and takeover defenses in determining acquisition likelihood. J. Financial Quant. Anal. 27(4):575–589.
[5]
Andrade G, Mitchell M, Stafford E (2001) New evidence and perspectives on mergers. J. Econom. Perspect. 15(2):103–120.
[6]
Arnold T, Erwin G, Nail L, Nixon T (2006) Do option markets substitute for stock markets? Evidence from trading on anticipated tender offer announcements. Internat. Rev. Financial Anal. 15(3):247–255.
[7]
Arshadi N (1998) Insider trading liability and enforcement strategy. Financial Management 27(2):70–84.
[8]
Arshadi N, Eyssell TH (1991) Regulatory deterrence and registered insider trading: The case of tender offers. Financial Management 20(2):30–39.
[9]
Asquith P (1983) Merger bids, uncertainty, and stockholder returns. J. Financial Econom. 11(1–4):51–83.
[10]
Bainbridge SM (2007) Bainbridge’s Securities Law: Insider Trading, 2nd ed. (Foundation Press, New York).
[11]
Barras L, Scaillet O, Wermers R (2010) False discoveries in mutual fund performance: Measuring luck in estimated alphas. J. Finance 65(1):179–216.
[12]
Bester A, Martinez VH, Rosu I (2018) Cash mergers and the volatility smile. Working paper, HEC Paris, Jouy-en-Josas, France.
[13]
Bhattacharya U (2014) Insider trading controversies: A literature review. Annual Rev. Financial Econom. 6(1):385–403.
[14]
Billett M, Xue H (2007) The takeover deterrent effect of open market share repurchases. J. Finance 62(4):1827–1850.
[15]
Black F (1975) Fact and fantasy in use of options. Financial Analysts J. 31(36–41):61–72.
[16]
Bodnaruk A, Massa M, Simonov A (2009) Investment banks as insiders and the market for corporate control. Rev Financial Stud. 22(12):4989–5026.
[17]
Bris A (2005) Do insider trading laws work? Eur. Financial Management 11(3):267–312.
[18]
Campbell JY, Lo AW, MacKinlay AC (1996) The Econometrics of Financial Markets (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).
[19]
Cao HH, Ou-Yang H (2009) Differences of opinion of public information and speculative trading in stocks and options. Rev. Financial Stud. 22(1):299–335.
[20]
Cao C, Chen Z, Griffin JM (2005) Informational content of option volume prior to takeovers. J. Bus. 78(3):1073–1109.
[21]
Chakravarty S, McConnell JJ (1997) An analysis of prices, bid/ask spreads, and bid and ask depths surrounding Ivan Boesky’s illegal trading in Carnation’s stock. Financial Management 26(2):18–34.
[22]
Chakravarty S, McConnell JJ (1999) Does insider trading really move stock prices? J. Financial Quant. Anal. 34(2):191–209.
[23]
Chan K, Ge L, Lin T-C (2015) Informational content of option trading on acquirer announcement return. J. Financial Quant. Anal. 50(5):1057–1082.
[24]
Chesney M, Crameri R, Mancini L (2015) Detecting informed trading activities in the options markets. J. Empirical Finance 33:263–275.
[25]
Clements M, Singh H (2011) An analysis of trading in target stocks before successful takeover announcements. J. Multinational Financial Management 21(1):1–17.
[26]
Cohen L, Frazzini A, Malloy CJ (2010) Sell-side school ties. J. Finance 65(4):1409–1437.
[27]
Cohen L, Malloy C, Pomorski L (2012) Decoding inside information. J. Finance 67(3):1009–1043.
[28]
Collin-Dufresne P, Fos V, Muravyev D (2017) Informed trading and option prices: Theory and evidence from activist trading. Working paper, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
[29]
Cornell B, Sirri ER (1992) The reaction of investors and stock prices to insider trading. J. Finance 47(3):1031–1059.
[30]
Cremers M, Weinbaum D (2010) Deviations from put-call parity and stock return predictability. J. Financial Quant. Anal. 45(2):335–367.
[31]
Cremers MKJ, Nair VB, John K (2009) Takeovers and the cross-section of returns. Rev. Financial Stud. 22(4):1409–1445.
[32]
Crimmins SJ (2013) Insider trading: Where is the line? Columbia Bus. Law Rev. 2:330–368.
[33]
DeMarzo PM, Fishman MJ, Hagerty KM (1998) The optimal enforcement of insider trading regulations. J. Political Econom. 106(3):602–632.
[34]
Dennis DK, McConnell JJ (1986) Corporate mergers and security returns. J. Financial Econom. 16(2):143–187.
[35]
Dodd P (1980) Merger proposals, management discretion and stockholder wealth. J. Financial Econom. 8(2):105–137.
[36]
Easley D, O’Hara M, Srinivas PS (1998) Option volume and stock prices: Evidence on where informed traders trade. J. Finance 53(2):431–465.
[37]
Fishe RP, Robe MA (2004) The impact of illegal insider trading in dealer and specialist markets: Evidence from a natural experiment. J. Financial Econom. 71(3):461–488.
[38]
Fishman MJ (1989) Preemptive bidding and the role of the medium of exchange in acquisitions. J. Finance 44(1):41–57.
[39]
Frino A, Satchell S, Wong B, Zheng H (2013) How much does an illegal insider trade? Internat. Rev. Finance 13(2):241–263.
[40]
Griffin JM, Hirschey NH, Kelly PJ (2011) How important is the financial media in global markets? Rev. Financial Stud. 24(12):3941–3992.
[41]
Griffin JM, Shu T, Topaloglu S (2012) Examining the dark side of financial markets: Do institutions trade on information from investment bank connections? Rev. Financial Stud. 25(7):2155–2188.
[42]
Guercio DD, Odders-White E, Ready M (2017) The deterrence effect of the securities and exchange commission’s enforcement intensity on illegal insider trading: Evidence from run-up before news events. J. Law and Econom. 60(2):269–307.
[43]
Han B (2008) Investor sentiment and option prices. Rev. Financial Stud. 21(1):387–414.
[44]
Heitzman S, Klasa S (2017) Informed trading reactions to new private information: Evidence from nonpublic merger negotiations. SSRN Working Paper 1938436, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.
[45]
Hu J (2014) Does option trading convey stock price information? J. Financial Econom. 111(3):625–645.
[46]
Huang HC, Tung PS (2016) How does divergence of opinions affect the relative trading activity and information content in option and stock prior to takeover announcement? Quart. Rev. Econom. Finance 60(May):162–171.
[47]
Jarrell GA, Poulsen AB (1989) Stock trading before the announcement of tender offers: Insider trading or market anticipation? J. Law. Econom. Organ. 5(2):225–248.
[48]
Jayaraman N, Frye MB, Sabherwal S (2001) Informed trading around merger announcements: An empirical test using transaction volume and open interest in options market. Financial Rev. 36(2):45–74.
[49]
Jayaraman N, Mandelker G, Shastri K (1991) Market anticipation of merger activities: An empirical test. Managerial Decision Econom. 12(6):439–448.
[50]
Jensen MC, Ruback RS (1983) The market for corporate control: The scientific evidence. J. Financial Econom. 11(1–4):5–50.
[51]
Jin W, Livnat J, Zhang Y (2012) Option prices leading equity prices: Do option traders have an information advantage? J. Accounting Res. 50(2):401–432.
[52]
John K, Koticha A, Narayanan R, Subrahmanyam MG (2003) Margin rules, informed trading in derivatives and price dynamics. NYU Working Paper FIN-01-038, New York University, New York.
[53]
Johnson TL, So EC (2012) The option to stock volume ratio and future returns. J. Financial Econom. 106(2):262–286.
[54]
Kacperczyk MT, Pagnotta E (2018) Chasing private information. SSRN Working Paper 2695197, Imperial College London, London.
[55]
Kedia S, Zhou X (2014) Informed trading around acquisitions: Evidence from corporate bonds. J. Financial Markets 18(March):182–205.
[56]
Keown AJ, Pinkerton JM (1981) Merger announcements and insider trading activity: An empirical investigation. J. Finance 36(4):855–869.
[57]
Klapper M (2013) The Nature of Informed Option Trading: Evidence from the Takeover Market (Anchor Academic Publishing, Hamburg, Germany).
[58]
Kothari SP, Warner JB (2007) Econometrics of event studies. Espen Eckbo B, ed. Handbook of Corporate Finance: Empirical Corporate Finance, vol. 1 (Elsevier, Amsterdam), 3–36.
[59]
Levy H, Yoder JA (1993) The behavior of option implied standard deviations around merger and acquisition announcements. Financial Rev. 28(2):261–272.
[60]
Liu D, Lung PP, Lallemand J (2015) Anticipation of takeovers in stock and options markets. Internat. Rev. Econom. Finance 39(September):19–35.
[61]
Lowry M, Rossi M, Zhu Z (2019) Informed trading by adviser banks? A look at options holdings ahead of mergers. Rev. Financial Stud. 32(2):605–645.
[62]
Mandelker G (1974) Risk and return: The case of merging firms, J. Financial Econom. 1(4):303–335.
[63]
Meulbroek LK (1992) An empirical analysis of illegal insider trading. J. Finance 47(5):1661–1699.
[64]
Meulbroek LK, Hart C (1997) The effect of illegal insider trading on takeover premia. Eur. Finance Rev. 1(1):51–80.
[65]
Morrison-Foerster (2013) Insider trading Annual review. Report, Morrison & Foerster, San Francisco.
[66]
Ordu U, Schweizer D (2015) Executive compensation and informed trading in acquiring firms around merger announcements. J. Banking Finance 55(June):260–280.
[67]
Palepu KG (1986) Predicting takeover targets: A methodological and empirical analysis. J. Accounting Econom. 8(1):3–35.
[68]
Pan J, Poteshman AM (2006) The information in option volume for future stock prices. Rev. Financial Stud. 19(3):871–908.
[69]
Podolski EJ, Truong C, Veeraraghavan M (2013) Informed options trading prior to takeovers: Does the regulatory environment matter? J. Internat. Financial Markets Institutions Money 27(December):286–305.
[70]
Poteshman AM (2006) Unusual option market activity and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. J. Bus. 79(4):1703–1726.
[71]
Roberts MR, Whited TM (2012) Endogeneity in empirical corporate finance, Harris M, Stulz R, eds. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, vol. 2B (Elsevier, Oxford, UK), 493–572.
[72]
Roll R, Schwartz E, Subrahmanyam A (2010) O/S: The relative trading activity in options and stock. J. Financial Econom. 96(1):1–17.
[73]
Sanders RW, Zdanowicz JS (1992) Target firm abnormal returns and trading volume around the initiation of change in control transactions. J. Financial Quant. Anal. 27(1):109–129.
[74]
Schwert G (1996) Markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions, J. Financial Econom. 41(2):153–192.
[75]
Shafer M (2012) The option-to-stock volume ratio and acquisition targets. SSRN Working Paper 2060339, Providence College School of Business, Providence, RI.
[76]
Solomon D, Scholtes E (2015) What are we meeting for? The consequences of private meetings with investors. J. Law Econom. 58(2):325–355.
[77]
Spyrou S, Tsekrekos A, Siougle G (2011) Informed trading around merger and acquisition announcements: Evidence from the UK equity and options markets. J. Futures Markets 31(8):703–726.
[78]
Subramanian A (2004) Option pricing on stocks in mergers and acquisitions. J. Finance 59(2):795–829.
[79]
Tse-Chun L, Xiaolong L (2015) Why do option prices predict stock returns? J. Banking Finance 52(March):17–28.
[80]
Wang X (2013) What does the SEC choose to investigate? J. Econom. Bus. 65(January–February):14–32.
[81]
Xing Y, Zhang X, Zhao R (2010) What does the individual option volatility smirk tell us about future equity returns? J. Financial Quant. Anal. 45(3):641–662.

Cited By

View all
  • (2023)Option Trading Activity, News Releases, and Stock Return PredictabilityManagement Science10.1287/mnsc.2022.454369:8(4810-4827)Online publication date: 1-Aug-2023
  • (2021)Informed Trading Reactions to New Private InformationManagement Science10.1287/mnsc.2020.362967:4(2630-2656)Online publication date: 1-Apr-2021

Index Terms

  1. Informed Options Trading Prior to Takeover Announcements: Insider Trading?
      Index terms have been assigned to the content through auto-classification.

      Recommendations

      Comments

      Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

      Information & Contributors

      Information

      Published In

      cover image Management Science
      Management Science  Volume 65, Issue 12
      December 2019
      508 pages
      ISSN:0025-1909
      DOI:10.1287/mnsc.2019.65.issue-12
      Issue’s Table of Contents

      Publisher

      INFORMS

      Linthicum, MD, United States

      Publication History

      Published: 01 December 2019
      Accepted: 08 April 2018
      Received: 03 December 2015

      Author Tags

      1. civil litigations
      2. derivatives
      3. insider trading
      4. mergers and acquisitions
      5. SEC

      Qualifiers

      • Research-article

      Contributors

      Other Metrics

      Bibliometrics & Citations

      Bibliometrics

      Article Metrics

      • Downloads (Last 12 months)0
      • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
      Reflects downloads up to 13 Jan 2025

      Other Metrics

      Citations

      Cited By

      View all
      • (2023)Option Trading Activity, News Releases, and Stock Return PredictabilityManagement Science10.1287/mnsc.2022.454369:8(4810-4827)Online publication date: 1-Aug-2023
      • (2021)Informed Trading Reactions to New Private InformationManagement Science10.1287/mnsc.2020.362967:4(2630-2656)Online publication date: 1-Apr-2021

      View Options

      View options

      Media

      Figures

      Other

      Tables

      Share

      Share

      Share this Publication link

      Share on social media