Predicting Potential Threats and Megarisks in Information Technology Development
Pages 48 - 59
Abstract
Abstract
This paper considers the methodological aspects of forecasting the emergence of threats and risks relating to the development of information technologies on the basis of a multicriterion analysis of human interaction with the information environment, as well as problems of information security of a person and society, taking into account the influence of factors such as the globalization of the world economy and the formation of a new technological structure. Informatization, convergence of computer, telecommunication technologies, and multimedia provide a fundamentally new level of civilizational development, increasingly influencing the life of a person and society. From the point of view of a systemic approach, the application of scientific metrics and multidimensional analysis methods, the causal relationships of the emergence of the most dangerous and significant threats and risks of the implementation of information technologies for the economy and society as a whole are investigated. Some conclusions, priorities, and the most urgent tasks of developing an interdisciplinary problem of forecasting the assessment and minimizing risks of information technology development are formulated.
References
[1]
Inozemtsev, V.L., Split civilization: Systemic crisis of industrial epoch, Vopr. Filos., 1999, no. 5, pp. 3–18.
[2]
Praktika globalizatsii: igry i pravila novoi epokhi (Practice of Globalization: Games and Rules of New Epoch), Delyagin, M.G., Ed., Moscow: Infa-M, 2000.
[3]
Fursov, A.I., On the threshold of new world: does there exist a subject of strategic action?, Odnako, 2011, nos. 1–2, pp. 64–66. https://coollib.net/b/240625/read. Cited October 31, 2021.
[4]
Bechmann G. Risk and rationality in a future-oriented society, Rationality in an Uncertain World 2005 Berlin Edition Sigma
[5]
Lenk H. Global TechnoScience and Responsibility: Schemes Applied to Human Values, Technology, Creativity and Globalisation 2007 Berlin LIT
[6]
Gorokhov, V.G. and Syuntyurenko, O.V., Technological risks: Information aspects of society security, Program. Sist. Vychisl. Metody, 2013, no. 4, pp. 344–353.
[7]
Syuntyurenko O.V. The social and economic risks of the development of information technologies Sci. Tech. Inf. Process. 2012 39 113-116
[8]
Syuntyurenko O.V. Network technologies for information warfare and manipulation of public opinion Sci. Tech. Inf. Process. 2015 42 205-210
[9]
Suntyurenko O.V. and Gilyarevskii R.S. Trends and risks of network technologies Sci. Tech. Inf. Process. 2021 48 97-106
[10]
Syuntyurenko O.V. The risks of the digital economy: information aspects Sci. Tech. Inf. Process. 2020 47 104-112
[11]
Bekhmann, G. and Gorokhov, V.G., Social, philosophical, and methodological problems of treating technological risks in the modern society (debates on technological risks in the modern Western literature), Vopr. Filos., 2012, no. 8, pp. 127–136.
[12]
Larina, E.S., Understanding of algorithmic societies: Hybrid intellect and its zombie, Svobodnaya Mysl’, 2017, no. 5. http://www.svom.info/entry/773-ponimanie-algoritmicheskih-obshestv-gibridnyj-inte/. Cited December 27, 2021.
[13]
Delyagin, M.G., Konets epokhi: ostorozhno, dveri otkryvayutsya! (End of Epoch: Warning, Doors Open!), vol. 1: Obshchaya teoriya globalizatsii (General Theory of Globalization), Moscow: IPROG, Knizhnyi Mir, 2019, 12th ed.
[14]
Savel’ev, S., Controlling the human brain. http://poznavatelnoe.tv/savelev_ upravlenie_mozgom. Cited December 23, 2021.
[15]
Doidge N. The That Changes Itself: Stories of Personal Triumph from the Frontiers of Brain Science 2007 New York Viking Press
[16]
Harari Y. Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow 2017 New York Harper
[17]
Le Bon G. Psychologie des foules 1895 Paris Alcan
[18]
Breer, V.V., Novikov, D.A., and Rogatkin, A.D., Upravlenie tolpoi: matematicheskie modeli porogovogo kollektivnogo povedeniya (Controlling the Mass: Mathematical Models of Threshold Collective Behavior), Moscow: LENAND, 2016.
[19]
Delyagin, M.G., Konets epokhi: ostorozhno, dveri otkryvayutsya! (End of Epoch: Warning, Doors Open!), vol. 2: Obshchaya teoriya globalizatsii (General Theory of Globalization), Moscow: Politizdat, Knizhnyi Mir, 2020, 12th ed.
[20]
Khodusov, A.N. and Shuklin, S.I., Virtualisation of consciousness and thinking as a basis for development of professional mentality of a graduate, Itegratsiya Obraz., 2011, no. 2, pp. 45–52.
[21]
Delyagin, M., Human-transformer, 2019. https://zavtra.ru/blogs/chelovek-transformer. Cited December 21, 2021.
[22]
Russian software. https://www.tadviser.ru/index.php/. Cited December 21, 2021.
[23]
Larina, E.S. and Ovchinskii, V.S., Chas volka. Vvedenie v khronopolitiku (Hour of the Wolf: Introduction to Chronopolitics), Moscow: Knizhnyi Mir, 2019.
[24]
How was the Internet switched off in Syria. d-russia.ru/otklyuchenie-strany-ot-internetaprecedent-byl.html. Cited December 19, 2021.
[25]
Fursov, A., Virtual worlds and food made of insects: What future is constructed by global elites, 2021. https://zen.yandex.ru/media/govoritfursov/virtualnye-miry-i-eda-iz-nasekomyh-kakoe-buduscee-stroiat-globalnye-elity-andrei-fursov-61a8bb7e548e48235-267b828?&. Cited December 21, 2021.
[26]
Hoffman L.J. Modern Methods of Information Protection 1980 Moscow Sovetskoe Radio
[27]
Today cyber threats: Results of 2020. https://www.ptsecurity.com/ru-ru/research/analytics/cybersecurity-threatscape-2020/. Cited December 17, 2021.
[28]
Computer modeling of biotechnological processes and systems. https://knowledge.allbest.ru/programming/3c0b65635a2bd79a5c43a88421216d27_0.html. Cited December 18, 2021.
[29]
How digital modeling reduces time and costs to developing new models. http://www.dealeron.ru/news/4057. Cited December 21, 2021.
[30]
Bring modeling to masses. https://habr.com/ru/company/dell_technologies/blog/406841/. Cited December 20, 2021.
[31]
IDC: World robotics market increases to 188 billion dollars in 2020, 2017. https://www.computerworld.ru/news/IDC-mirovoy-rynok-robototehniki-k-2020-godu-vyrastet-do-188-milliardov-dollarov. Cited December 21, 2021.
[32]
Brynjolfsson E. and McAfee A. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies 2014
[33]
Industrial robots, www.tadviser.ru/index.php/Статья: Промышленные роботы. Cited December 19, 2021.
[34]
International Robotics Federation presented the list of most advanced countries in robotics. https://rb.ru/story/countrits-withgreae. Cited December 21, 2021.
[35]
Moore’s law. www.tadviser.ru. Cited November 29, 2021.
[36]
Single-event upset. https://wikichi.ru/wiki/Single-event_upset. Cited December 21, 2021.
[37]
O’Neill P.M. and Badhwar G.D. Single event upsets for space shuttle flights of new general purpose computer memory devices IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci. 1994 41 1755-1764
[38]
Carlson P. and De Angelis A. Nationalism and internationalism in science: the case of the discovery of cosmic rays Eur. Phys. J. H 2011 35 309-329
[39]
Hoeffgen S.K., Metzger S., and Steffens M. Investigating the effects of cosmic rays on space electronics Front. Phys. 2020 8 318
[40]
Furry.cat, Object-oriented programming is the largest error of computer sciences, Proglib, 2021. https://proglib.io/p/obektno-orientirovannoe-programmirovanie-samaya-bolshaya-oshibka-kompyuternyh-nauk-2021-01-23?utm_referrer=https%3A%252. Cited January 22, 2021.
[41]
Armstrong, J., Why OO sucks. http://harmful.cat-v.org/software/OO_programming/why_oo_sucks.
[42]
Farewell, object-oriented programming, 2019. https://webdevblog.ru/proshhaj-obektno-orientirovannoe-programmirovanie/. Cited February 4, 2021.
[43]
Savchuk, I., Why did object-oriented programming fail?, 2010. http://citforum.ru/gazeta/165/. Cited February 4, 2021.
[44]
Suzdalnitski, I., Object-oriented programming—The trillion dollar disaster: Why it’s time to move on from OOP, Better Program., 2019. https://betterprogramming.pub/object-oriented-programming-the-trillion-dollar-disaster-92a4b666c7c7. Cited February 4, 2021.
[45]
Artificial intelligence in military. https://arsenal-otechestva.ru/article/1503-iskusstvennyj-intellekt-v-voennom-dele. Cited December 21, 2021.
[46]
Stepanov, A., Main directions of application of artificial intelligence in armed forces of leading foreign countries, 2021. https://zavtra.ru/books/osnovnie_napravleniya_primeneniya_iskusstvennogo_intellekta_v_vooruzhennih_silah_vedushih_zarubezhnih_stran. Cited December 21, 2021.
[47]
Torres, P., Agential risks: A comprehensive introduction, J. Evol. Technol., 2016, vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 31–47. https://jetpress.org/v26.2/torres.pdf. Cited December 22, 2021.
[48]
The Silicon Valley of seeds is being created in China. https://agroportal.ua/news/mir/v-kitae-sozdayut-silikonovuyu-dolinu-semyan/. Cited December 22, 2021.
[49]
Nartova, M., Existential risks and uncontrolled digital revolution, TexTérra, 2017. https://texterra.ru/blog/ekzistentsialnye-riski-i-nekontroliruemaya-tsifrovaya-evolyutsiya.html. Cited December 19, 2021.
[50]
Rodionov, I.I., Gilyarevskii, R.S., and Tsvetkova, V.A., Informatsionnaya deyatel’nost’ kak infrastruktura natsional’noi ekonomiki (Informaiton Activity as Infrastructure of National Economy), St. Petersburg: Aleteya, 2016.
[51]
Malinetskii, G.G., Scenarios, strategic risks, and information technologies, Inf. Tekhnol. Vychisl. Sist., 2002, no. 4, pp. 83–108.
[52]
Lyubutov A.S. The method of structural taxonomy: Research potential for analysis of social and spiritual processes Nauchn. Rezul’t. Sotsiol. Upr. 2019 5 58-79
[53]
Rodionov, I.I., Gilyarevskii, R.S., and Tsvetkova, V.A., Neoinformatsionnaya ekonomika i ee obshchestvo. Tendentsii razvitiya (Neoinformation Economy and Its Society: Trends of Development), Moscow: Vseross. Inst. Nauchn. Tekh. Inf. Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2021.
Index terms have been assigned to the content through auto-classification.
Recommendations
The Risks of the Digital Economy: Information Aspects
AbstractThe multidimensional problem of identifying, assessing, and minimizing threats and risks of the development and application of new technologies within the framework of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, whose core element is information technology, ...
Trends and Risks of Network Technologies
AbstractSeveral new directions and trends in the development of network technologies are analyzed by a system approach using scientometric methods and comparative analysis. The spectrum of potential negative consequences of applying new information and ...
Network technologies for information warfare and manipulation of public opinion
This paper explores the impact of new information technologies on the development of social communication and social systems. The properties and features of the modern information environment are analyzed. The factors and technologies of information ...
Comments
Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.Information & Contributors
Information
Published In
© Allerton Press, Inc. 2022. ISSN 0147-6882, Scientific and Technical Information Processing, 2022, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 48–59. © Allerton Press, Inc., 2022. Russian Text © The Author(s), 2022, published in Nauchno-Tekhnicheskaya Informatsiya, Seriya 1: Organizatsiya i Metodika Informatsionnoi Raboty, 2022, No. 3, pp. 1–12.
Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Berlin, Heidelberg
Publication History
Published: 01 March 2022
Received: 13 January 2022
Author Tags
Qualifiers
- Research-article
Contributors
Other Metrics
Bibliometrics & Citations
Bibliometrics
Article Metrics
- 0Total Citations
- 0Total Downloads
- Downloads (Last 12 months)0
- Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
Reflects downloads up to 18 Jan 2025