Modeling Sequential Online Interactive Behaviors with Temporal Point Process

The massively available data about user engagement with online information service systems provides a gold mine about users' latent intents. It calls for quantitative user behavior modeling. In this paper, we study the problem by looking into users' sequential interactive behaviors. Inspired by the concepts of episodic memory and semantic memory in cognitive psychology, which describe how users' behaviors are differently influenced by past experience, we propose a Long- and Short-term Hawkes Process model. It models the short-term dependency between users' actions within a period of time via a multi-dimensional Hawkes process and the long-term dependency between actions across different periods of time via a one dimensional Hawkes process. Experiments on two real-world user activity log datasets (one from an e-commerce website and one from a MOOC website) demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in capturing the temporal dependency between actions in a sequence of user behaviors. It directly leads to improved accuracy in predicting the type and the time of the next action. Interestingly, the inferred dependency between actions in a sequence sheds light on the underlying user intent behind direct observations and provides insights for downstream applications.