Modeling/predicting the evolution trend of osn-based applications

While various models have been proposed for generating social/friendship network graphs, the dynamics of user interactions through online social network (OSN) based applications remain largely unexplored. We previously developed a growth model to capture static weekly snapshots of user activity graphs (UAGs) using data from popular Facebook gifting applications. This paper presents a new continuous graph evolution model aimed to capture microscopic user-level behaviors that govern the growth of the UAG and collectively define the overall graph structure. We demonstrate the utility of our model by applying it to forecast the number of active users over time as the application transitions from initial growth to peak/mature and decline/fatique phase. Using empirical evaluations, we show that our model can accurately reproduce the evolution trend of active user population for gifting applications, or other OSN applications that employ similar growth mechanisms. We also demonstrate that the predictions from our model can guide the generation of synthetic graphs that accurately represent empirical UAG snapshots sampled at different evolution stages.