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Anomaly detection via feature-aided tracking and hidden Markov models

Published: 01 January 2009 Publication History

Abstract

The problem of detecting an anomaly (or abnormal event) is such that the distribution of observations is different before and after an unknown onset time, and the objective is to detect the change by statistically matching the observed pattern with that predicted by a model. In the context of asymmetric threats, the detection of an abnormal situation refers to the discovery of suspicious activities of a hostile nation or group out of noisy, scattered, and partial intelligence data. The problem becomes complex in a low signal-to-noise ratio environment, such as asymmetric threats, because the "signal" observations are far fewer than "noise" observations. Furthermore, the signal observations are "hidden" in the noise. In this paper, we illustrate the capabilities of hidden Markov models (HMMs), combined with feature-aided tracking, for the detection of asymmetric threats. A transaction-based probabilistic model is proposed to combine HMMs and feature-aided tracking. A procedure analogous to Page's test is used for the quickest detection of abnormal events. The simulation results show that our method is able to detect the modeled pattern of an asymmetric threat with a high performance as compared to a maximum likelihood-based data mining technique. Performance analysis shows that the detection of HMMs improves with increase in the complexity of HMMs (i.e., the number of states in an HMM).

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Published In

cover image IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans  Volume 39, Issue 1
Special section: Best papers from the 2007 biometrics: Theory, applications, and systems (BTAS 07) conference
January 2009
279 pages

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IEEE Press

Publication History

Published: 01 January 2009
Revised: 14 July 2007
Received: 01 September 2006

Author Tags

  1. Anomaly detection
  2. anomaly detection
  3. asymmetric threats
  4. change detection
  5. hidden Markov models

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  • (2016)Asymmetric Threat Modeling Using HMMsIEEE Transactions on Signal Processing10.1109/TSP.2016.252958464:10(2587-2601)Online publication date: 1-May-2016
  • (2010)Segmentation of human body parts using deformable triangulationIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans10.1109/TSMCA.2010.204027240:3(596-610)Online publication date: 1-May-2010
  • (2009)A statistical threat assessmentIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans10.1109/TSMCA.2009.202761139:6(1307-1315)Online publication date: 1-Nov-2009
  • (undefined)Detectability prediction of hidden Markov models with cluttered observation sequences2016 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP)10.1109/ICASSP.2016.7472482(4269-4273)

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