[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/ skip to main content
research-article

Modeling and analysis of cascading failures in projects: : A complex network approach

Published: 01 January 2019 Publication History

Highlights

This study draws attention to the cascading failures in project.
Complex network theory is applied to develop cascading failures model to mimic the catastrophe spreading process in project.
This study can be applied to evaluate the impact of cascading failures on the project.
This study can be applied to identify the possibility of large cascades.
This study can give guidance to managers in developing preventive measures to reduce cascade failure risk.

Abstract

Due to the complex integration of the tasks in a project, the failure of a single task can trigger extremely large-scale failures and destroy a considerable part of the overall project. To investigate cascading failures in projects, in this paper, the project is first abstracted as a weighted directed network composed of tasks and task interactions, after which a cascade model that takes account of the project’s self-protection mechanism is developed to examine a failure propagation process originates from a single task failure. The model is then applied to examine cascading failures in a project under three types of single task failures with varying parameters. The experiment results demonstrate that the method is very effective in predicting cascading failures, evaluating the impact of cascading failures on the project, and identifying large cascades. The insights gained from the simulation results have implications for managers in the implementation of protective measures to mitigate cascading failure risk and avert project catastrophes.

References

[1]
S. Boccaletti, V. Latora, Y. Moreno, M. Chavez, D.-U. Hwang, Complex networks: Structure and dynamics, Physics Reports 424 (4) (2006) 175–308.
[2]
C. Chapman, S. Ward, Project risk management: Processes, techniques, and insights, Wiley, 2003.
[3]
L.F. Costa, F.A. Rodrigues, G. Travieso, P.R.V. Boas, Characterization of complex networks: A survey of measurements, Advances in Physics (2005) 167–242.
[4]
P. Crucitti, V. Latora, M. Marchiori, Model for cascading failures in complex networks, Physical Review E Statistical Nonlinear & Soft Matter Physics 69 (4 Pt 2) (2004) 045104.
[5]
I. Dobson, Estimating the propagation and extent of cascading line outages from utility data with a branching process, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 27 (4) (2012) 2146–2155.
[6]
C. Ellinas, Modelling indirect interactions during failure spreading in a project activity network, Scientific Reports (2018) 8.
[7]
C. Ellinas, The domino effect: An empirical exposition of systemic risk across project networks, Production and Operations Management (2018).
[8]
C. Ellinas, N. Allan, C. Durugbo, A. Johansson, How robust is your project? From local failures to global catastrophes: A complex networks approach to project systemic risk, PLoS One 10 (11) (2015) e0142469.
[9]
C. Ellinas, N. Allan, A. Johansson, Project systemic risk: Application examples of a network model, International Journal of Production Economics 182 (2016) 50–62.
[10]
X. Fang, Q. Yang, W. Yan, Modeling and analysis of cascading failure in directed complex networks, Safety Science 65 (2014) 1–9.
[11]
K.-I. Goh, B. Kahng, D. Kim, Universal behavior of load distribution in scale-free networks, Physical Review Letters 87 (27) (2001) 278701.
[12]
M. Granovetter, Threshold models of collective behavior, American Journal of Sociology 83 (6) (1978) 1420–1443.
[13]
T.E. Harris, The theory of branching processes, Courier Corporation, 2002.
[14]
S. Hasan, S.V. Ukkusuri, A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making, Transportation Research Part B 45 (10) (2011) 1590–1605.
[15]
X. Huang, I. Vodenska, S. Havlin, H.E. Stanley, Cascading failures in bi-partite graphs: Model for systemic risk propagation, Scientific Reports 3 (2013) 1219.
[16]
J. Kim, I. Dobson, Approximating a loading-dependent cascading failure model with a branching process, IEEE Transactions on Reliability 59 (4) (2010) 691–699.
[17]
R. Kinney, P. Crucitti, R. Albert, V. Latora, Modeling cascading failures in the North American power grid, The European Physical Journal B-Condensed Matter and Complex Systems 46 (1) (2005) 101–107.
[18]
Y. Koç, M. Warnier, R.E. Kooij, F.M. Brazier, An entropy-based metric to quantify the robustness of power grids against cascading failures, Safety Science 59 (2013) 126–134.
[19]
B. Mirzasoleiman, M. Babaei, M. Jalili, M. Safari, Cascaded failures in weighted networks, Physical Review E 84 (4) (2011) 046114.
[20]
F. Mohammadipour, S.J. Sadjadi, Project cost–quality–risk tradeoff analysis in a time-constrained problem, Computers & Industrial Engineering 95 (2016) 111–121.
[21]
Motter, A.E. & Yang, Y. (2017). The unfolding and control of network cascades. arXiv preprint arXiv:1701.00578.
[22]
A.E. Motter, Y.-C. Lai, Cascade-based attacks on complex networks, Physical Review E 66 (6) (2002) 065102.
[23]
C. Muriana, G. Vizzini, Project risk management: A deterministic quantitative technique for assessment and mitigation, International Journal of Project Management 35 (3) (2017) 320–340.
[24]
M.E. Newman, The mathematics of networks, The New Palgrave Encyclopedia of Economics 2 (2008) (2008) 1–12.
[25]
K. Park, Y.C. Lai, N. Ye, Characterization of weighted complex networks, Physical Review E Statistical Nonlinear & Soft Matter Physics 70 (2) (2004) 026109.
[26]
A. Qazi, J. Quigley, A. Dickson, K. Kirytopoulos, Project complexity and risk management (ProCRiM): Towards modelling project complexity driven risk paths in construction projects, International Journal of Project Management 34 (7) (2016) 1183–1198.
[27]
J. Rijke, S. van Herk, C. Zevenbergen, R. Ashley, M. Hertogh, E. ten Heuvelhof, Adaptive programme management through a balanced performance/strategy oriented focus, International Journal of Project Management 32 (7) (2014) 1197–1209.
[28]
B.H. Tabrizi, S.F. Ghaderi, A robust bi-objective model for concurrent planning of project scheduling and material procurement, Computers & Industrial Engineering 98 (2016) 11–29.
[29]
L. Tang, K. Jing, J. He, H.E. Stanley, Complex interdependent supply chain networks: Cascading failure and robustness, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 443 (2016) 58–69.
[30]
H. Thamhain, Managing risks in complex projects, Project Management Journal 44 (2) (2013) 20–35.
[31]
R.J. Turner, M. Huemann, F.T. Anbari, C.N. Bredillet, Perspectives on projects, Construction Management & Economics 30 (30) (2010) 416–420.
[32]
M. Van Eeten, A. Nieuwenhuijs, E. Luiijf, M. Klaver, E. Cruz, The state and the threat of cascading failure across critical infrastructures: The implications of empirical evidence from media incident reports, Public Administration 89 (2) (2011) 381–400.
[33]
J. Wang, Mitigation strategies on scale-free networks against cascading failures, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 392 (9) (2013) 2257–2264.
[34]
J.-W. Wang, L.-L. Rong, Robustness of the western United States power grid under edge attack strategies due to cascading failures, Safety Science 49 (6) (2011) 807–812.
[35]
J. Wang, N. Yang, Y. Zhang, Y. Song, Development of the mitigation strategy against the schedule risks of the R&D project through controlling the cascading failure of the R&D network, Physica A Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications (2018) 508.
[36]
D.J. Watts, A simple model of global cascades on random networks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99 (9) (2002) 5766.
[37]
Z.-X. Wu, G. Peng, W.-X. Wang, S. Chan, E.W.-M. Wong, Cascading failure spreading on weighted heterogeneous networks, Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2008 (05) (2008) P05013.
[38]
J. Zeng, M. An, N.J. Smith, Application of a fuzzy based decision making methodology to construction project risk assessment, International Journal of Project Management 25 (6) (2007) 589–600.
[39]
Y. Zeng, R. Xiao, Modelling of cluster supply network with cascading failure spread and its vulnerability analysis, International Journal of Production Research 52 (23) (2014) 6938–6953.

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)Modeling the resilience of liner shipping network under cascading effectsComputers and Industrial Engineering10.1016/j.cie.2024.110559197:COnline publication date: 1-Nov-2024
  • (2024)Robustness analysis of large scientific facilities development network with different cascading failure modesComputers and Industrial Engineering10.1016/j.cie.2024.110281193:COnline publication date: 19-Sep-2024
  • (2024)Resilience improvement of cyber-physical supply chain networks considering cascading failures with mixed failure modesComputers and Industrial Engineering10.1016/j.cie.2023.109812187:COnline publication date: 12-Apr-2024
  • Show More Cited By

Index Terms

  1. Modeling and analysis of cascading failures in projects: A complex network approach
          Index terms have been assigned to the content through auto-classification.

          Recommendations

          Comments

          Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

          Information & Contributors

          Information

          Published In

          cover image Computers and Industrial Engineering
          Computers and Industrial Engineering  Volume 127, Issue C
          Jan 2019
          1352 pages

          Publisher

          Pergamon Press, Inc.

          United States

          Publication History

          Published: 01 January 2019

          Author Tags

          1. Project
          2. Cascading failures
          3. Complex networks
          4. Risk management

          Qualifiers

          • Research-article

          Contributors

          Other Metrics

          Bibliometrics & Citations

          Bibliometrics

          Article Metrics

          • Downloads (Last 12 months)0
          • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
          Reflects downloads up to 07 Jan 2025

          Other Metrics

          Citations

          Cited By

          View all
          • (2024)Modeling the resilience of liner shipping network under cascading effectsComputers and Industrial Engineering10.1016/j.cie.2024.110559197:COnline publication date: 1-Nov-2024
          • (2024)Robustness analysis of large scientific facilities development network with different cascading failure modesComputers and Industrial Engineering10.1016/j.cie.2024.110281193:COnline publication date: 19-Sep-2024
          • (2024)Resilience improvement of cyber-physical supply chain networks considering cascading failures with mixed failure modesComputers and Industrial Engineering10.1016/j.cie.2023.109812187:COnline publication date: 12-Apr-2024
          • (2024)Project portfolio selection considering the hindrance to risk propagation: a dual-objective optimization approachSoft Computing - A Fusion of Foundations, Methodologies and Applications10.1007/s00500-024-09929-z28:20(11945-11969)Online publication date: 1-Oct-2024
          • (2023)A study on risk propagation and traceability of gas storage based on complex networkProceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Systems and Network Security10.1145/3661638.3661703(343-348)Online publication date: 22-Dec-2023
          • (2023)Cascading failures and resilience optimization of hospital infrastructure systems against the COVID-19Computers and Industrial Engineering10.1016/j.cie.2023.109158179:COnline publication date: 1-May-2023
          • (2023)Towards the efficient generation of variant design in product development networks: network nodes importance based product configuration evaluation approachJournal of Intelligent Manufacturing10.1007/s10845-021-01813-z34:2(615-631)Online publication date: 1-Feb-2023
          • (2020)Risk Propagation Model and Simulation of Schedule Change in Construction ProjectsComplexity10.1155/2020/88546092020Online publication date: 7-Dec-2020
          • (2019)A Nonlinear Model for Portfolio Scale Decision-making Considering Project Interdependences2019 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC)10.1109/SMC.2019.8914312(1006-1011)Online publication date: 6-Oct-2019

          View Options

          View options

          Media

          Figures

          Other

          Tables

          Share

          Share

          Share this Publication link

          Share on social media