New travel time prediction algorithms for intelligent transportation systems

Recently, travel time prediction has become a crucial part of trip panning and dynamic route guidance for many advanced traveler information and transportation management systems. Moreover, a scalable prediction system with high accuracy is critical for the successful deployment of ATIS (Advanced Travelers Information Systems) in road networks. In this paper, we propose two travel time prediction algorithms using naïve Bayesian classification and rule-based classification. Both classification techniques provide a velocity class to be used for measuring travel time accurately. Our algorithms exhibit high accuracy in predicting travel time when using a large amount of historical traffic database. In addition, our travel time prediction algorithms are suitable for road networks with arbitrary travel routes. It is shown from our performance comparison, our travel time prediction algorithms significantly outperform the existing prediction algorithms, such as the link-based algorithm, the switching model, and the linear regression algorithm. In addition, it is revealed that our algorithm using naïve Bayesian classification is better on the performance of mean absolute relative error than our algorithm using rule-based classification.