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arXiv:2312.16878 (physics)
[Submitted on 28 Dec 2023 (v1), last revised 2 Sep 2024 (this version, v3)]

Title:Voting power in the Council of the European Union: A comprehensive sensitivity analysis

Authors:Dóra Gréta Petróczy, László Csató
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Abstract:The Council of the European Union (EU) is one of the main decision-making bodies of the EU. Many decisions require a qualified majority: the support of 55% of the member states (currently 15) that represent at least 65% of the total population. We investigate how the power distribution, based on the Shapley-Shubik index, and the proportion of winning coalitions change if these criteria are modified within reasonable bounds. The power of the two countries with about 4% of the total population each is found to be almost flat. The level of decisiveness decreases if the population criterion is above 68\% or the states criterion is at least 17. The proportion of winning coalitions can be increased from 13.2% to 20.8% (30.1%) such that the maximal relative change in the Shapley-Shubik indices remains below 3.5% (5.5%). Our results are indispensable in evaluating any proposal for reforming the qualified majority voting system.
Comments: 22 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables
Subjects: Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph); Computer Science and Game Theory (cs.GT); Theoretical Economics (econ.TH)
MSC classes: 91A80, 91B12
Cite as: arXiv:2312.16878 [physics.soc-ph]
  (or arXiv:2312.16878v3 [physics.soc-ph] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2312.16878

Submission history

From: László Csató [view email]
[v1] Thu, 28 Dec 2023 08:07:33 UTC (39 KB)
[v2] Tue, 4 Jun 2024 16:00:34 UTC (45 KB)
[v3] Mon, 2 Sep 2024 10:52:59 UTC (45 KB)
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