Title:Introduction To Gaussian Process Regression In Bayesian Inverse Problems, With New ResultsOn Experimental Design For Weighted Error Measures

Abstract:Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost of evaluating the data likelihood. To alleviate this problem, we consider using Gaussian process regression to build a surrogate model for the likelihood, resulting in an approximate posterior distribution that is amenable to computations in practice. This work serves as an introduction to Gaussian process regression, in particular in the context of building surrogate models for inverse problems, and presents new insights into a suitable choice of training points. We show that the error between the true and approximate posterior distribution can be bounded by the error between the true and approximate likelihood, measured in the $L^2$-norm weighted by the true posterior, and that efficiently bounding the error between the true and approximate likelihood in this norm suggests choosing the training points in the Gaussian process surrogate model based on the true posterior.