Exploring the Relationship Between Very-High-Resolution Satellite Imagery Data and Fruit Count for Predicting Mango Yield at Multiple Scales
<p>Location of mango farms in the three mango growing regions of Australia.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Flowchart showing the sequence of procedure steps used in this study to generate the results.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Example of 18 tree locations on the classified NDVI map (<b>a</b>) and on the ESRI basemap image (<b>b</b>). The points with L, M and H prefixes represent the different tree vigour classes of low, medium and high, respectively.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Summary of fruits counted (<b>a</b>) per farm and (<b>b</b>) heterogeneity of cultivar yield distribution from 2015 to 2021. The numerical values and black dots associated with each boxplot represent the number of trees of that particular cultivar and outliers, respectively.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Correlation between fruit count and the 24 VIs using the entire datasets of 1958 datapoints. The green and red colour ramps show the strength and direction of the correlation being positive and negative, respectively.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Distribution of slopes for CIRE_1 with average slope and standard deviation.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Relationships identified between RENDVI and fruit count: (<b>a</b>) and (<b>b</b>) were positive for 2016 and 2017, (<b>c</b>) negative for 2020 and (<b>d</b>) non-existent for 2021.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>RF prediction of fruit count using all individual tree datasets (combined model). The different coloured points represent the sampled trees from the respective farms and regions. n = 390 represents the number of datapoints (20%) used for model validation.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>RF-based location (region) prediction of fruit count in the (<b>a</b>) Northern Territory (NT), (<b>b</b>) Northern Queensland (N–QLD) and (<b>c</b>) South East Queensland (SE–QLD). The different coloured points represent the sampled trees on a given farm in the respective regions.</p> "> Figure 10
<p>RF-based variable importance plots for models from (<b>a</b>) combined datasets, (<b>b</b>) Northern Territory (NT), (<b>c</b>) Northern Queensland (N–QLD) and (<b>d</b>) South East Queensland (SE–QLD) and the best (<b>e</b>) seasonal and (<b>f</b>) cultivar models.</p> "> Figure 11
<p>Comparison of total actual and predicted yield for the 51 validation points (blocks per season) obtained from 29 unique blocks with available actual harvest data from 2016 to 2021.</p> "> Figure 12
<p>An example of a tree-level yield variability map derived from the RF-based combined model (<b>right</b>). The RGB image of the mango orchard mapped is shown on the (<b>left</b>). The legend presents an industry-based categorization of yield variability ranging from low (0–55) to high (139–170) for this study.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- Explore the relationships between VIs derived from WV2 and WV3 imagery and fruit count at the individual tree level, using data sourced from different growing seasons, locations and cultivars.
- Evaluate a range of analytics to determine if a generic crop load (yield) model can be derived between canopy reflectance and yield.
- Validate the accuracies of a generic model for estimating fruit number at the individual tree and orchard block level.
- Produce tree-level yield variability maps.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Field Data Collection
2.3. Satellite Data
Spectral Data Extraction and VI Calculation
2.4. Data Analysis
2.4.1. Correlation Analysis
2.4.2. Linear Regression and Slope Analysis
2.4.3. Random Forest Prediction of Fruit Count
2.4.4. Model Evaluation
2.4.5. Yield Variability Mapping
3. Results
3.1. Exploratory Data Analysis
3.2. Exploring the Relationship Between VIs and Fruit Count
3.2.1. All Data Aggregation Results
3.2.2. Separate Cultivar and Region Regression Results
3.2.3. Individual Block Meta-Regression Analysis Results
- Location (region): the mean of all slopes tested was not significantly different from zero in the NT, whereas one VI (SIPI with p = 0.023) in the N–QLD and two VIs (N1RENDVI with p = 0.041 and CIRE_1 with p = 0.038) in the SE–QLD regions were significantly different from zero.
- Cultivar: there were significant differences in the mean of the slopes for all VIs except SIPI for both KP and Calypso and N1_N2NDVI for LJ.
- Season: The mean of the slopes for 2015, 2020 and 2021 was not significantly different from zero and the null hypothesis was therefore accepted. However, slopes were significantly different in the 2016, 2017 and 2019 seasons.
3.3. Random Forest Prediction of Fruit Count at the Individual Tree Level
3.3.1. Fruit Count Prediction Using Combined Datasets
3.3.2. Individual Tree Fruit Count Prediction Using Data Subsets (Location, Cultivar and Season)
3.4. Validation of Combined and Subset (Location, Season and Cultivar) Predicted Fruit Count Models at the Block Level
3.5. Yield Variability Mapping for a Block at the Tree Level
4. Discussion
4.1. Relationship Between VIs and Fruit Count
4.2. RF Prediction Using All Datasets and Subsets
4.3. Validation of Predicted Fruit Count Models at the Block Level
4.4. Mapping the Spatial Variability of Tree Yield in an Orchard Block
4.5. Limitations of the Study
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Region | Farm | No. of Blocks | Season | Cultivar | No. of Sampled Trees | Satellite | Image Acquisition Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NT | Farm 1 | 6 | 2016 2017 2019 2020 2021 | Calypso | 432 * | WV3 WV3 WV3 WV3 WV2 | 23-10-2016 16-08-2017 27-08-2019 27-08-2020 01-09-2021 |
Farm 2 | 5 | 2020 2021 | KP, R2E2, Parvin | 158 * | WV3 WV3 | 27-09-2020 23-09-2021 | |
Farm 3 | 6 | 2020 2021 | KP, R2E2 | 144 * | WV3 WV3 | 27-09-2020 23-09-2021 | |
Farm 4 | 5 | 2020 2021 | KP, R2E2, LG, LJ | 180 | WV3 WV2 | 04-11-2020 16-11-2021 | |
Farm 5 | 2 | 2020 2021 | Calypso | 36 * | WV3 WV3 | 27-09-2020 23-09-2021 | |
Farm 6 | 2 | 2020 2021 | HG | 72 | WV3 WV2 | 04-11-2020 16-11-2021 | |
Farm 7 | 2 | 2016 2019 | KP, R2E2 | 72 | WV3 WV3 | 23-10-2016 27-08-2019 | |
Farm 8 | 5 | 2019 2020 | Calypso, HG | 126 * | WV3 WV3 | 08-12-2019 07-11-2020 | |
Farm 9 | 4 | 2020 | KP, R2E2, Keitt | 72 | WV3 | 07-11-2020 | |
N–QLD | Farm 10 | 4 | 2019 2021 | Calypso | 144 | WV3 WV3 | 08-12-2019 07-11-2020 |
Farm 11 | 4 | 2019 2020 | KP, HG, R2E2 | 108 * | WV3 WV3 | 08-12-2019 07-11-2020 | |
Farm 12 | 2 | 2020 | KP, R2E2 | 36 | WV3 | 07-11-2020 | |
Farm 13 | 3 | 2019 2020 | Calypso | 108 | WV3 WV3 | 06-12-2019 06-12-2020 | |
SE–QLD | Farm 14 | 5 | 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 | Calypso, HG, R2E2 | 270 * | WV2 WV3 WV3 WV3 WV3 | 02-09-2015 23-09-2016 14-05-2017 06-12-2019 06-12-2020 |
Total | 55 | 1958 |
Image Band | Band Name | Wavelength (nm) |
---|---|---|
1 | Coastal (C) | 400–450 |
2 | Blue (B) | 450–510 |
3 | Green (G) | 510–580 |
4 | Yellow (Y) | 585–625 |
5 | Red (R) | 630–690 |
6 | Red-edge (RE) | 705–745 |
7 | NIR-1 | 770–895 |
8 | NIR-2 | 860–900/1040 * |
Vegetation Index | Formula | Reference |
---|---|---|
Red-edge Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (RENDVI) | (RE − R)/(RE + R) | [28] |
Normalized difference Red-edge index (N1/RENDVI) | (NIR1 − R)/(NIR1 + RE) | [29] |
Normalized difference Red-edge index 1 (N1RENDVI) | (NIR1 − RE)/(NIR1 + RE) | [29] |
Normalized difference Red-edge index 2 (N2RENDVI) | (NIR2 − RE)/(NIR2 + RE) | [29] |
Transformed Chlorophyll Absorption in Reflectance Index (TCARI) | 3 × ((RE − R) − 0.2 × (RE − G) × (RE/R)) | [30] |
Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) | (NIR1 − B)/(NIR1 + R) | [31] |
Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (CB SIPI) | NIR1 − CB)/(NIR1 + CB) | [31] |
Normalized Difference NIR Index (N1/N2NDVI) | (NIR1 − R)/(NIR1 + NIR2) | [32] |
Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (N1GNDVI) | (NIR1 − G)/(NIR1 + G) | [33] |
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (N1NDVI) | (NIR1 − R)/(NIR1 + R) | [34] |
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (N2NDVI) | (NIR2 − R)/(NIR2 + R) | [34] |
Renormalized Difference Vegetation Index 1 (RDVI1) | (NIR1 − R)/(SQRT(NIR1 + R)) | [32] |
Renormalized Difference Vegetation Index 2 (RDVI2) | (NIR2 − R)/(SQRT(NIR2 + R)) | [32] |
Modified Simple Ratio (MSR) | (NIR1/R − 1)/(SQRT((NIR1/R) + 1)) | [35] |
Transformed Difference Vegetation Index 1 (TDVI1) | 1.5 × ((NIR1 − R)/(SQRT(NIR12 + R + 0.5)) | [36] |
Transformed Difference Vegetation Index 2 (TDVI2) | 1.5 × ((NIR2 − R)/(SQRT(NIR22 + R + 0.5)) | [36] |
Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) | (NIR1)/(R) | [37,38] |
Yellow Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (Yellow SAVI) | (NIR1 − CB) × (1 + 0.5)/(NIR1 + CB + 0.5) | [39] |
Enhanced Vegetation Index 1 (EVI2N1) | 2.5 × ((NIR1 − R)/(1 + NIR1 + (2.4 × R)) | [40] |
Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2N2) | 2.5 × ((NIR2 − R)/(1 + NIR2 + (2.4 × R)) | [40] |
Chlorophyll Index Green 1 (CIg_1) | (NIR1)/(G) − 1 | [41] |
Chlorophyll Index Green 2 (CIg_2) | (NIR2)/(G) − 1 | [41] |
Chlorophyll Index Red-edge 1 (CIRE_1) | (NIR1)/(RE) − 1 | [41] |
Chlorophyll Index Red-edge 2 (CIRE_2) | (NIR2)/(RE) − 1 | [41] |
Subset | Description | Best Correlation Coefficient (r) | Best Contributing VI (s) |
---|---|---|---|
Cultivar | Calypso | 0.24 | CIRE_2 |
KP | −0.19 | CIRE_2 and CB-SIPI | |
HG | 0.39 | CIRE_2, N2RENDVI, TDVI1 and N1/N2NDVI | |
Parvin | −0.69 | EVI2N2 | |
R2E2 | 0.35 | CB-SIPI | |
LJ | 0.15 | Yellow-SAVI | |
LG | 0.51 | CB-SIPI | |
Keitt | 0.76 | N2RENDVI | |
Region | NT | −0.18 | SIPI |
N–QLD | −0.15 | Yellow-SAVI | |
SE–QLD | 0.34 | CIRE_2 and N2RENDVI |
Regional Model | All 24 Predictors | 10 Top Ranked Predictors | 6 Top Ranked Predictors |
---|---|---|---|
NT | 38.1% | 42.5% | 40.8% |
N–QLD | 36.3% | 37.9% | 36.6% |
SE–QLD | 29.0% | 30.0% | 29.2% |
Model | Description | PRMSE (%) | MAE (No. of Fruits/Block) * | R2 | No. of Calibration Datapoints | No. of Validation Blocks |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Location (Region) | NT | 16.8 | 59.2 | 0.75 | 1940 | 26 |
N–QLD | 61.0 | 41.9 | 0.78 | 8 | ||
SE–QLD | 7.2 | 40.6 | 0.93 | 17 | ||
Season | 2016 | 46.2 | 103.4 | 0.18 | 1940 | 4 |
2017 | 35.8 | 47.8 | 0.17 | 5 | ||
2019 | 7.7 | 39.7 | 0.93 | 18 | ||
2020 | 12.2 | 50.6 | 0.77 | 20 | ||
2021 | 14.4 | 45.7 | 0.97 | 4 | ||
Cultivar † | Calypso | 10.0 | 50.7 | 0.86 | 1940 | 35 |
KP | 174.5 | 76.3 | 0.90 | 6 | ||
HG | 44.5 | 33.4 | 0.19 | 7 | ||
R2E2 | 72.3 | 38.7 | 0.98 | 2 |
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Torgbor, B.A.; Sinha, P.; Rahman, M.M.; Robson, A.; Brinkhoff, J.; Suarez, L.A. Exploring the Relationship Between Very-High-Resolution Satellite Imagery Data and Fruit Count for Predicting Mango Yield at Multiple Scales. Remote Sens. 2024, 16, 4170. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16224170
Torgbor BA, Sinha P, Rahman MM, Robson A, Brinkhoff J, Suarez LA. Exploring the Relationship Between Very-High-Resolution Satellite Imagery Data and Fruit Count for Predicting Mango Yield at Multiple Scales. Remote Sensing. 2024; 16(22):4170. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16224170
Chicago/Turabian StyleTorgbor, Benjamin Adjah, Priyakant Sinha, Muhammad Moshiur Rahman, Andrew Robson, James Brinkhoff, and Luz Angelica Suarez. 2024. "Exploring the Relationship Between Very-High-Resolution Satellite Imagery Data and Fruit Count for Predicting Mango Yield at Multiple Scales" Remote Sensing 16, no. 22: 4170. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16224170
APA StyleTorgbor, B. A., Sinha, P., Rahman, M. M., Robson, A., Brinkhoff, J., & Suarez, L. A. (2024). Exploring the Relationship Between Very-High-Resolution Satellite Imagery Data and Fruit Count for Predicting Mango Yield at Multiple Scales. Remote Sensing, 16(22), 4170. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16224170