Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Wuhua River Basin
<p>Location map of the river basin.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>(<b>a</b>) Interannual change and (<b>b</b>) Cumulative departure curves of the average temperature in the river basin from 1961 to 2013.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>(<b>a</b>) Interannual change and (<b>b</b>) Cumulative departure curves of the average precipitation in the river basin from 1961 to 2013.</p> "> Figure 3 Cont.
<p>(<b>a</b>) Interannual change and (<b>b</b>) Cumulative departure curves of the average precipitation in the river basin from 1961 to 2013.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>(<b>a</b>) Interannual change and (<b>b</b>) Cumulative departure curves of the runoff.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Mann–Kendall (M–K) curves of the temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the river basin.</p> "> Figure 5 Cont.
<p>Mann–Kendall (M–K) curves of the temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the river basin.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>(<b>a</b>) Time–frequency distribution of the real part of the wavelet coefficient and (<b>b</b>) Wavelet variance change curve of temperature.</p> "> Figure 6 Cont.
<p>(<b>a</b>) Time–frequency distribution of the real part of the wavelet coefficient and (<b>b</b>) Wavelet variance change curve of temperature.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>(<b>a</b>) Time–frequency distribution of the real part of the wavelet coefficient and (<b>b</b>) the wavelet variance change curve of precipitation.</p> "> Figure 7 Cont.
<p>(<b>a</b>) Time–frequency distribution of the real part of the wavelet coefficient and (<b>b</b>) the wavelet variance change curve of precipitation.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>(<b>a</b>) Time–frequency distribution of the real part of the wavelet coefficient and (<b>b</b>) The wavelet variance change curve of runoff.</p> "> Figure 8 Cont.
<p>(<b>a</b>) Time–frequency distribution of the real part of the wavelet coefficient and (<b>b</b>) The wavelet variance change curve of runoff.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Land use types in the Wuhua River Basin in 1990 and 2013.</p> "> Figure 10
<p>Departure curves of (<b>a</b>) annual runoff and precipitation and (<b>b</b>) annual runoff and temperature.</p> "> Figure 10 Cont.
<p>Departure curves of (<b>a</b>) annual runoff and precipitation and (<b>b</b>) annual runoff and temperature.</p> "> Figure 11
<p>Interannual runoff and precipitation changes in the river basin.</p> "> Figure 12
<p>Regression analysis on the average annual runoff with respect to precipitation.</p> "> Figure 13
<p>Precipitation-runoff double accumulation curve.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Research Methods
2.3.1. Mann–Kendall Test
2.3.2. Wavelet Analysis
2.3.3. Double-Mass Curve
- (1)
- Precipitation sequences and runoff sequences are cumulatively calculated. The cumulative curve of precipitation ∑P–runoff ∑Q is plotted to determine the year in which human activities began to affect the runoff. The curve can be divided into two periods, namely, the reference period and the change period, and the dividing time point is the cutoff point.
- (2)
- The ∑P and ∑Q data for the change period are analyzed based on the corresponding data for the reference period by using LR. Consequently, the fitting equation for the cumulative precipitation and the runoff in the period, where a is the slope and b is the ∑Q-intercept:
- (3)
- ∑P in the change period is substituted into the Equation (3) to obtain the simulated cumulative runoff depth ∑Q′ in the change period. If ∑Q′ is assumed to be the same as the underlying surface conditions in the reference period, then the runoff is unaffected by human activities.
- (4)
- The calculation is inversed based on the superposition principle of cumulative values. With the simulated value ∑Q′, the simulated runoff depth Q′ is calculated inversely, and the difference between the measured runoff in the change period and the averaged value indicates the impact of human activities on the runoff in the River Basin.
3. Results
3.1. Analysis on the Trends, Discontinuities, and Periodicities of the Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff
3.1.1. Analysis on the Change Trends of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in 1961–2013
3.1.2. Discontinuities in Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff
3.1.3. Periodicities of the Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff
3.2. Relationship Between Land Use and Runoff
3.3. Impacts of Climate Changes and Human Activities on Runoff
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Cultivated Land | Forestland | Grassland | Watershed | Construction Land | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area/km2 | 1990 | 313.19 | 1417.2 | 42.73 | 17.2 | 42.51 |
2013 | 187.9 | 1322.62 | 138.66 | 15.06 | 168.11 | |
Rate of change in the area/% | From 1990 to 2013 | −40 | −6.67 | 224.5 | −12.44 | 295.46 |
From 1990 to 2013 | Grassland | Cultivated Land | Construction Land | Forestland | Watershed | Total in 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cultivated land | 4.13 | 94.85 | 9.90 | 81.09 | 2.68 | 185.44 |
Forestland | 21.82 | 106.85 | 1.96 | 1145.84 | 1.58 | 1315.66 |
Grassland | 9.80 | 41.21 | 5.04 | 83.56 | 2.42 | 138.03 |
Watershed | 0.79 | 2.47 | 0.68 | 4.21 | 8.29 | 15.94 |
Construction land | 4.66 | 68.31 | 24.73 | 83.77 | 2.11 | 167.87 |
Total in 1990 | 42.73 | 313.19 | 41.51 | 1416.46 | 17.2 | 1832 |
From 1990 to 2013 | Grassland | Cultivated Land | Construction Land | Forestland | Watershed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cultivated land | 2.22 | 51.15 | 1.56 | 43.73 | 1.34 |
Forestland | 1.99 | 9.39 | 0.12 | 88.29 | 0.2 |
Grassland | 4.2 | 31.31 | 0.75 | 60.55 | 3.2 |
Watershed | 4.94 | 15.5 | 1.13 | 26.41 | 52 |
Construction land | 2.62 | 45.15 | 3.78 | 47.06 | 1.35 |
Year | Precipitation | Runoff Per Ten Thousand Tons | Impact of Precipitation | Impact of Human Activities | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(mm) | Actual Value | Calculated Value | Total Reduction | Quantity Affected/Hundred Million m3 | Contribution Factor | Quantity Affected/ Hundred Million m3 | Contribution Factor | |
1981–1985 | 1586.3 | 10.29 | ||||||
1986–1989 | 1336.1 | 7.14 | 7.59 | 3.15 | 0.45 | 14.3% | 2.7 | 85.7% |
1990–1999 | 1428.2 | 8.31 | 8.68 | 1.98 | 0.37 | 18.7% | 1.61 | 81.3% |
2000–2009 | 1487.8 | 8.64 | 9.25 | 1.65 | 0.61 | 37% | 1.04 | 63% |
2010–2013 | 1478.9 | 7.44 | 8.13 | 2.85 | 0.69 | 24.2% | 2.16 | 75.8% |
1986–2013 | 1443.6 | 8.46 | 8.72 | 1.83 | 0.26 | 14.2% | 1.57 | 85.8% |
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Zhang, Z.; Wan, L.; Dong, C.; Xie, Y.; Yang, C.; Yang, J.; Li, Y. Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Wuhua River Basin. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103405
Zhang Z, Wan L, Dong C, Xie Y, Yang C, Yang J, Li Y. Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Wuhua River Basin. Sustainability. 2018; 10(10):3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103405
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Zhengdong, Luwen Wan, Caiwen Dong, Yichun Xie, Chuanxun Yang, Ji Yang, and Yong Li. 2018. "Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Wuhua River Basin" Sustainability 10, no. 10: 3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103405
APA StyleZhang, Z., Wan, L., Dong, C., Xie, Y., Yang, C., Yang, J., & Li, Y. (2018). Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Wuhua River Basin. Sustainability, 10(10), 3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103405