1. Introduction
The global forest area has continued to shrink, but the loss of forest cover is slowing. The reason for this lies in the expansion of tree plantations, which offsets part of the forest cover loss. Particularly, among the top 10 countries with increasing forest areas, China has been leading overwhelmingly in terms of the expansion of tree plantations. Even in tropical regions, India, Chile, and Vietnam have achieved a remarkable annual expansion of the area of tree plantations by 266 thousand ha, 149 thousand ha, and 126 thousand ha, respectively [
1]. Moreover, forest cover loss has been halted through tree planting and forest conservation activities.
Vietnam is the only country in Southeast Asia that ranks in the top ten countries with increasing forest areas. It can be argued that Vietnam’s strategy for forest resource management is the most comprehensive from the viewpoint of policy implementation. The Vietnamese government implemented a forest resource management policy encompassing four aspects: forest plantation for the rehabilitation of forests (natural forest) and the expansion of forest resources (plantation forest) from 1992, an export ban on timber for resource nationalism and sustained forest resources from 1992, gradual and areal extension of logging bans in natural forests for conservation from 1992, 1997, and 2014, and a partial timber import ban for legality from 2014 [
2,
3]. In terms of Vietnam’s policies regarding planted forest resources, comprehensive efforts have been made from the establishment of planted forests to the development of wood processing industry. The area of planted forests has been expanding along with an increase in timber demand [
3].
Vietnam’s forest area had decreased by more than 5 million ha by 1990 due to the Vietnam War, conversion to farmland, and increased demand for timber [
4,
5]. To rectify this, plantation policies were introduced to restore barren lands to forested areas. Furthermore, Program 327 introduced in 1992 and the Five Million Hectare Reforestation Program (5MHRP) introduced in 1997 stimulated tree planting through government funding [
5,
6]. In addition, forestland was allocated and leased under the 1994 Decree on “Allocation of forestland to organizations, households, and individuals” and the 1999 Forest Land Allocation (FLA) program on “Allocation and lease of forestland to organizations, households, and individuals for long-term and stable use for forestry purposes”. Consequently, on-farm tree planting has increased [
5]. The area of planted forests managed by companies fluctuated between approximately 600 thousand ha and 800 thousand ha, but the area managed by households and communities continued to expand from 730 thousand ha in 2002 to 1.7 million ha in 2019 [
7].
Remarkable developments have been observed in the wood processing industry in Vietnam. In addition to planted and natural forests where raw materials for the wood processing industry were obtained, timber was imported from countries such as Laos and Cambodia. Each source is greatly influenced by the policies. Since the introduction of plantation policies in the 1990s, the area of planted forests has been expanding. On the other hand, a ban on logging in natural forests was introduced in 2014. The supply of timber from natural forests was systematically halted, except for that from auctions of seized timber from illegal logging or from the excess originating from road construction [
2] (
Figure 1). Furthermore, imported timber accounts for two-thirds of the raw materials used in the wood processing industry [
8,
9,
10]. However, a ban on timber imports from Laos and Cambodia was introduced in 2014, leading to a decline in timber supply. Therefore, the current sources of raw materials mainly consist of timber imports from countries other than Laos and Cambodia, including the supply from domestic planted forests. Timber imports from African countries have increased in recent years, but issues such as delayed delivery have been highlighted [
2]. Consequently, expectations for planted forests as a source of timber have risen higher than ever before. Furthermore, the acquisition of forest certification for planted forests in Vietnam is growing in terms of area and number. The concern for illegality is lower than that of timber from natural forests and imported timber, which is also a factor contributing to the growth in demand for planted forests [
11]. As a result, inquiries about timber from planted forests have been increasing in recent years for the production of medium density fiberboard (MDF) and wood pellets, in addition to their conventional use for producing paper, lumber, and glued laminated timber (
Figure 1). The increased demand for wood pellets is due to their growing use as fuel in large-scale wood biomass power plants that were established under Japan’s feed-in-tariff system. Moreover, Vietnam’s recent economic growth has brought about an increase in consumption among middle- and low-income earners, leading to an increased demand for furniture manufacturing that uses timber from planted forests [
2].
It is not difficult to predict that a shortage of raw materials will occur in response to such a significant increase in demand. Responses to the shortage of raw materials were observed by changing the tree species, such as the old growth of Douglas fir (
Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) to southern yellow pine (
Pinus echinate Mill.,
Pinus palustris Mill,
Pinus taeda L., and
Pinus elliottii Engelm.) in the United States [
12] and from meranti (
Shorea spp.) to falcata (
Paraserianthes falcataria (L.) Nielsen) [
13]. In addition, since the 1990s, a shift from natural forest timber to plantation forest timber has been seen as a global trend. The movement toward sustainable forest management, the expansion of industrial tree planting, and the promotion of the timber industry in timber exporting countries were behind this trend [
14]. However, in Vietnam, significant changes in tree species have already been observed in acacia, eucalyptus, and rubber. In the case of shortage of raw materials, is it possible for such changes in tree species among these? Or will it follow the same path as Thailand where a natural forest logging ban was issued in 1989 due to significant deforestation, and since then, the use of domestic plantation timber has been focused on to overcome an import-dependent constitution [
15,
16,
17]? That is, the area of fast-growing plantation forests increased, and based on this, the export of wood chips and pulp, particle boards, and fiber boards was promoted. Thailand and Vietnam have something in common with the diversity of products and the existence of a large export market such as Asia and Europe. On the one hand, Thailand has adopted a strategy based on contract plantation with local people in private lands in order to avoid conflict with local people. As a result, Thailand could not compete with the productivity of Brazil and Indonesia, which mainly consisted of large-scale industrial plantation, and there was a limit of expanding the scale and strengthening international competitiveness [
18]. This may be a barrier in the future in Vietnam, where the proportion of plantation forest area managed by local people is large. What kind of path will Vietnam take in the situation of a raw material shortage and multiple possible scenarios to deal with it? It is necessary to understand and analyze the behaviors of the country, regions, companies, and farmers.
Concerning sawn timber for furniture export and for furniture for high-income earners, Iwanaga et al. [
2] found that material changes pertaining to African timber are occurring because of the prohibition against obtaining timber from domestic natural forests and importing from Laos and Cambodia. We explore changes in the resource supply behavior of forestry companies and resource procurement strategies of companies that manufacture lumber for glued laminated timber, which has been in conventional demand. Such demand comes amid the decreased supply of timber due to a ban on timber importation from Laos and Cambodia, and in response to increased production of new products such as MDF and wood pellets in addition to increased furniture production. Furthermore, we explore the trends in raw material consumption and manufacturing pertaining to MDF and wood pellets. Moreover, we explore the trend of using certified timber in the wood industry, which has a growing demand in Vietnam and is closely related to planted forest operations. In addition, we discuss issues and future developments surrounding the supply and demand for timber from planted forests.
4. Discussion
As a result of the plantation and land policies introduced in the 1990s, the area of planted forests in Vietnam has expanded. The key figures behind the expansion are households and communities that manage forests and plantation sites (
Figure 3). In terms of forest classification by purpose, production forests accounted for over 80% of the expansion. It is apparent that these forests are intended for timber harvesting. Following the ban on logging in natural forests imposed in 2014, planted forests became the cornerstone of timber harvesting in the nation. Furthermore, since 2015, after the ban on timber importation from Laos and Cambodia was introduced, the area intended for tree planting, which was provisionally managed by the People’s Committee before being allocated to households under the FLA program, has significantly increased, which is not unrelated to these policies. Planted forests established by on-farm tree planting, which are expected to continue to increase in the future, are intended to compensate for declining timber supply as a result of the two policies.
A nationwide planted forest expansion can be observed, and in terms of region, a remarkable increase has taken place in Northern Midlands and Mountainous regions and North Central Coast and Central Coastal regions. In particular, North Central Coast and Central Coastal regions, which have a long coastline, serve as a wood processing base. Located in the North Central Coast region, which borders Laos, Quang Tri Province has a large area of planted forests. The province, which has also advanced in terms of forest certification, was particularly affected by the ban on timber imports from Laos. Therefore, the following changes occurred in the province: the supply of timber decreased, timber prices rose, timber imports from Africa increased, a shift occurred toward obtaining raw materials from planted forests, and the diameter of timber harvested from planted forests increased (
Table 1).
According to our interviews with forestry companies, the harvest of timber from planted forests has increased for each of the companies since the first half of the 2010s. It can be indicated that the increase in the supply of timber from planted forests offset the impact of the ban on logging in natural forests and that of the ban on timber importation from some countries (
Table 2). Furthermore, as the capacity of timber supply from planted forests increased, the number of companies that would use it as a raw material also increased in the 2000s. One category of companies is glued laminated timber manufacturers, whose timber consumption has increased. Meanwhile, timber prices have also risen (
Table 4).
Looking at the timber suppliers of these companies, it became apparent that more companies than farmers have become suppliers of acacia timber and rubber (
Table 5). Forestry companies started planting and harvesting only acacias or rubber more intensively than before. An increasing number of farmers have planted and harvested pine trees, aiming for a niche. On the other hand, farmer groups have had a growing presence as suppliers of acacia timber and rubber wood, similar to forestry companies. It can be pointed out that they are utilizing economies of scale alongside forestry companies.
The raw materials used by the manufacturer of MDF, which is a wood product with new demand, all came from planted forests. A total of 70% to 80% of the raw materials used by the MDF manufacturer was supplied by farmers. Furthermore, as the MDF manufacturer started operating an additional mill in 2016, its consumption of timber from planted forests increased 2.5 times. The output of the manufacturer of wood pellets, which is also a wood product with new demand, has been increasing year by year. The demand for timber by farmers has also increased accordingly. The MDF and wood pellet manufacturers consumed more timber from on-farm plantations than from industrial plantations.
According to statistics, the area of planted forests in Vietnam has been increasing, reaching 4.3 million ha in 2019, 38% of which was managed by households and communities, whereas forestry companies managed only 16% of the total area (
Figure 3). However, as shown in
Table 3, forestry companies’ yield per unit of land area is 151 m
3 per ha, while that for small-scale forest owners is 92 m
3 per ha, which indicates that the productivity of industrial tree plantations is significantly higher. The calculation of annual growth indicates higher value in small-scale forest owners (forestry companies: 15.1 m
3, small-scale forest owners: 18.4 m
3), and it can be said the difference of yield per unit of land area is affected by rotation age (forestry companies: 10 years, small-scale forest owners: 5 years). However, what is important is the difference of management or owned forest area, namely forest companies manage a sufficiently large area for logging every year, on the one hand, small-scale forest owners own a small area that they are able to harvest only once every 5 years. Furthermore, it has been highlighted that there is a difference in the quality of timber at the MDF company. Unlike on industrial tree plantations where trees are well managed, trees are planted on vacant sites within the territory. Therefore, it can be pointed out that due to improper management and the influence of other crops, trees planted on farms suffer from withering and decay. In terms of lumber intended for furniture production, which was not included in this study, preference is given to large-diameter timber from industrial plantations that apply uniform spacing. Furthermore, if exports are anticipated, certification is also required, and the demand for timber from forestry companies accumulates. It can be said that there is significant demand for timber from forestry companies.
Thus, both industrial and on-farm tree planting plays an important role in the wood industry in Vietnam. The sources of supply have been categorized according to their purpose. On the other hand, amid declining supply from sources of raw materials (import and natural forests), inquiries from sawmills and glued laminated timber factories for timber from planted forests have increased. Wood pellet manufacturers reached the point of facing competition for raw material procurement with MDF manufacturers, and the supply of timber from planted forests is becoming scarce.
5. Conclusions
We explored changes in the supply behavior of forestry companies and changes in the resource procurement strategies employed by companies that manufacture lumber for glued laminated timber, which meets conventional demand. This has resulted in export expansion and the emergence of new demand such as MDF and wood pellets, in addition to a reduction in the sources of timber supply as a result of government policies. Moreover, we explored raw material procurement and production trends pertaining to MDF and wood pellets, which are wood products with new demand. Furthermore, we also investigated the situation regarding the acquisition of forest certification by the aforementioned stakeholders. Based on the above, we discuss the issues and future developments pertaining to the supply and demand for timber from planted forests.
The national goal is to export more wood products in the future. In particular, the government is considering adjusting tariffs to promote the export of furniture and other products with high added value, rather than products such as woodchips (Decision 5115/QĐ-BNN-TCLN in 2014). Furthermore, with regard to timber harvesting, it has also been recommended that the rotation age be extended from 4–5 years, which is extremely short, to 10 years. Subsidies aimed at this are being prepared (Decision 5115/QĐ-BNN-TCLN in 2014). As much as under the conditions that were not compromised by risk factors such as typhoon damage and/or disease, Blackburn et al. [
22] stated that a higher percentage of 10 years rotation timber could be utilized for sawn timber rather than for 4 years rotation timber, and also calculated that income returns from 10 years rotation timber could be more attractive than the 4 years one. Considering these circumstances, the production of lumber for glued laminated timber, MDF, and furniture is expected to increase. These policy-driven developments may have a significant impact on pellet production.
On the other hand, much of the land that is to be allocated to farmers is still secured in the name of the Forest Management Board and the People’s Committee (
Figure 3). Due to the ban on logging in natural forests and the ban on timber importation from Laos and Cambodia, which was introduced in 2014, timber supply to wood pulp and pellet mills is not likely to be disrupted for some time to compensate for the amount of available timber from the land that will be allocated to farmers. Furthermore, superior quality industrial timber with at least 7–8 years of rotation age is oriented toward lumber manufacturing, while the timber from on-farm plantations is oriented toward woodchips, wood pellets, and MDF, which is likely to continue for some time. The key point in the future will be to find a way to improve the productivity of on-farm tree plantations and the quality of timber from these plantations. The difference in the yield per unit of land area between forestry companies (151 m
3 per ha) and small-scale forest owners (92m
3 per ha) indicates that there is room for up to approximately 60% growth (
Table 3). If the supply of timber for woodchips, wood pellets, and MDF is increased as a result of the improvement, it will be possible to produce and export products with both high and low added value, leading to further export expansion. Annual growth per ha is higher in the forest of small-scale forest owners; however, as mentioned in the “Discussion” section, it should be considered that the available logging area is substantially different in each stakeholder. In addition, the simple approach that lengthens rotation age may not be smoothly accepted by small-scale forest owners, because time preference (time discounting) rate and risks of damage such as that by typhoons will be higher. Therefore, it can be said that increasing the yield per unit by lengthening the rotation age is difficult. The key lies in farmer groups because, as shown in
Table 3 and
Table 5, farmer groups for forest certification are operating more like companies than individual farmers. That is, economies of scale have come into play. This also leads to the improvement of management and operation along with the regulations of the forest certification system, such as fertilization for yield increase, thinning for higher quality of timber, and spacing between trees to avoid withering and decay. Furthermore, by forming groups, farmers gain advantages such as bargaining power, which they do not have individually. Farmer groups are formed upon the acquisition of forest certification. Forest certification not only facilitates the attainment of main objectives such as sustainability and legality, but also promotes the revitalization of farmer forestry. Since the first acquisition of forest certification by a farmer group in 2011, the number of forest certifications obtained by farmer groups has increased, reaching 12 (25 thousand ha) in 2020 [
23].
In this research, we conducted surveys and discussions centered on forestry companies. It could be concluded that plantation forests managed by forestry companies will not expand drastically, because the area is included in state forests and the total or maximum area of state forest has limitations. In addition, the yield per unit of land area in plantation forests managed by forestry companies is already high and will not increase remarkably. Therefore, the amount of timber production will transition to a stabilizing and sustaining stage. As stated in the latter half of the “Conclusion” section, the trend of farmer forestry is also important as a room for the growth of timber production in Vietnamese forestry. In future research, we would like to examine the productivity of small-scale forest owners and farmer groups and the power dynamics in their relationships with the companies.