Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sikkim: A Comparison of AHP and Fuzzy AHP Models
<p>(<b>a</b>) An overview map of India showing the geographical location of Sikkim in the northeastern part of the country (highlighted in red). (<b>b</b>) A topographic map of Sikkim, displaying elevation variations across its four districts (North, West, South, and East Sikkim). (<b>c</b>) A detailed map of Sikkim illustrating its river systems (in red), lakes (in blue), glaciers (light blue), and contour lines indicating elevation changes. The map highlights the intricate hydrological features and topography critical to the study of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) susceptibility.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Overall methodology flowchart used in the study.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Illustrations of the critical parameters analyzed in this study. (<b>a</b>) Glacial Lake volume (in cubic meters). (<b>b</b>) Glacial Lake Area (in sq.km), categorizing the lakes by size, where larger areas correlate with higher flood potential due to larger water storage. (<b>c</b>) Elevation Map (in meters), highlighting the topographical variance across Sikkim, which affects water flow dynamics and flood pathways. (<b>d</b>) Slope Map (in degrees), illustrating the steepness of the terrain, a key factor in assessing water movement, erosion, and landslide potential. (<b>e</b>) Avalanche Zonation Map, identifying regions at different levels of avalanche risk. (<b>f</b>) Rockfall Zonation Map, which pinpoints areas vulnerable to rockfalls, another factor contributing to the risk of outburst floods. (<b>g</b>) Seismic Activity Map. (<b>h</b>) Distance to River (in meters), indicating proximity to drainage channels. (<b>i</b>) Rainfall Distribution Map (in mm/year), showing areas with high rainfall.</p> "> Figure 3 Cont.
<p>Illustrations of the critical parameters analyzed in this study. (<b>a</b>) Glacial Lake volume (in cubic meters). (<b>b</b>) Glacial Lake Area (in sq.km), categorizing the lakes by size, where larger areas correlate with higher flood potential due to larger water storage. (<b>c</b>) Elevation Map (in meters), highlighting the topographical variance across Sikkim, which affects water flow dynamics and flood pathways. (<b>d</b>) Slope Map (in degrees), illustrating the steepness of the terrain, a key factor in assessing water movement, erosion, and landslide potential. (<b>e</b>) Avalanche Zonation Map, identifying regions at different levels of avalanche risk. (<b>f</b>) Rockfall Zonation Map, which pinpoints areas vulnerable to rockfalls, another factor contributing to the risk of outburst floods. (<b>g</b>) Seismic Activity Map. (<b>h</b>) Distance to River (in meters), indicating proximity to drainage channels. (<b>i</b>) Rainfall Distribution Map (in mm/year), showing areas with high rainfall.</p> "> Figure 3 Cont.
<p>Illustrations of the critical parameters analyzed in this study. (<b>a</b>) Glacial Lake volume (in cubic meters). (<b>b</b>) Glacial Lake Area (in sq.km), categorizing the lakes by size, where larger areas correlate with higher flood potential due to larger water storage. (<b>c</b>) Elevation Map (in meters), highlighting the topographical variance across Sikkim, which affects water flow dynamics and flood pathways. (<b>d</b>) Slope Map (in degrees), illustrating the steepness of the terrain, a key factor in assessing water movement, erosion, and landslide potential. (<b>e</b>) Avalanche Zonation Map, identifying regions at different levels of avalanche risk. (<b>f</b>) Rockfall Zonation Map, which pinpoints areas vulnerable to rockfalls, another factor contributing to the risk of outburst floods. (<b>g</b>) Seismic Activity Map. (<b>h</b>) Distance to River (in meters), indicating proximity to drainage channels. (<b>i</b>) Rainfall Distribution Map (in mm/year), showing areas with high rainfall.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>GLOF Susceptibility Maps of the Sikkim region, showing the variation in risk classification based on two different methodologies. (<b>a</b>) Shows the susceptibility map generated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, and (<b>b</b>) shows the results derived from the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP). The maps classify GLOF risk into five categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High, depicted by different colors, with areas in red indicating the highest risk of outburst events.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>ROC curves illustrating the AUC values for two different methods used in the study, AHP and FAHP. The AHP method achieved an AUC value of 0.92, indicating high accuracy in GLOF susceptibility prediction, while the FAHP method had an AUC value of 0.88, demonstrating a slightly lower but still reliable predictive performance. The ROC curve plots the true positive rate (sensitivity) against the false positive rate, providing a visual assessment of the model’s performance.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Change detection map showing the expansion of high to very high GLOF-susceptible lakes from 1990 to 2023, identified using both the AHP and FAHP methods. The map displays the temporal progression of selected lakes: GL 1, GL 2, GL 3, North Lohnak Lake, South Lohnak Lake, Tso Lhamo, and Khangchung Tso. Different colors represent lake extents at four specific time points, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2023, with darker shades showing earlier lake boundaries and lighter shades indicating more recent expansions.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Line graph illustrating the changes in the area (in sq.km) of selected glacial lakes in Sikkim between 1990 and 2023. The graph tracks the expansion of Gurudongmar 1, Gurudongmar 2, Gurudongmar 3, North Lohnak, South Lohnak, Khangchung Tso, and Tso Lhamo Lake over time. The trends show a general increase in lake areas, indicating progressive glacier melt and lake expansion over the observed period, which correlates with the rising susceptibility to GLOFs.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Glacial Lake Inventory
2.3.2. GLOF Susceptibility
2.3.3. AHP Methods
2.3.4. FAHP Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Assessment of Significance Factors for GLOF Susceptibility
3.2. Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Susceptibility Map Using Comparative Study Between AHP and Fuzzy AHP Method
3.3. Validation with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Area Under the Curve (AUC)
3.4. Change Detection of Glacial Lakes (1990–2023)
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Data Used | Date | Resolution | Purpose | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|
Landsat 5 | 23-12-1990 18-12-2000 30-12-2010 | 30 m | Change Detection of Glacial Lake | USGS Earth Explorer |
Landsat 9 | 26-12-2023 | 30 m | Glacial Lake Inventory | USGS Earth Explorer |
Cartosat 1 | 2005–2014 | 2.5 m | Slope, Elevation, Distance From River, Watershed | Bhuvan Data Portal |
Climate Data | 2003–2021 | Average Annual Rainfall | Chirps data Portal | |
Earthquake Data | 2000–2024 | Seismic Activity | USGS Earthquake Catalog |
References | Formulae |
---|---|
[16] | V = 0.104 × A1.42 |
[20] | V = 0.0578 × A1.4683 |
[36] | V = 0.0522 × A1.1766 |
Level of Importance | Definition | |
---|---|---|
AHP | FAHP | |
1 | (1,1,1) | Equally Preferred |
3 | (2,3,4) | Moderately Preferred |
5 | (4,5,6) | Strongly Preferred |
7 | (6,7,8) | Very Strongly Preferred |
9 | (9,9,9) | Absolutely Preferred |
7 | (6,7,8) | Very Strongly Preferred |
9 | (9,9,9) | Absolutely Preferred |
Parameters | AHP Weight | Fuzzy AHP Weight | Ranking |
---|---|---|---|
Glacial Lake Volume | 14.61 | 17.77 | 1 |
Seismic Activity | 10.18 | 6.48 | 6 |
Glacial Lake Area | 14.61 | 10.2 | 5 |
Elevation | 6.69 | 5.77 | 7 |
Avalanche | 15.1 | 17.22 | 2 |
Rockfall | 15.1 | 16.81 | 3 |
Slope | 13.86 | 16.81 | 4 |
Distance from River | 4.19 | 4.81 | 9 |
Rainfall | 5.66 | 4.13 | 8 |
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Das, A.; Singh, S.K.; Kanga, S.; Sajan, B.; Meraj, G.; Kumar, P. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sikkim: A Comparison of AHP and Fuzzy AHP Models. Climate 2024, 12, 173. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110173
Das A, Singh SK, Kanga S, Sajan B, Meraj G, Kumar P. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sikkim: A Comparison of AHP and Fuzzy AHP Models. Climate. 2024; 12(11):173. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110173
Chicago/Turabian StyleDas, Arindam, Suraj Kumar Singh, Shruti Kanga, Bhartendu Sajan, Gowhar Meraj, and Pankaj Kumar. 2024. "Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sikkim: A Comparison of AHP and Fuzzy AHP Models" Climate 12, no. 11: 173. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110173
APA StyleDas, A., Singh, S. K., Kanga, S., Sajan, B., Meraj, G., & Kumar, P. (2024). Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sikkim: A Comparison of AHP and Fuzzy AHP Models. Climate, 12(11), 173. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110173