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Urban Rail Revenue Reconciliation Method Based on Passenger Boarding Probability

Published: 03 May 2024 Publication History

Abstract

This paper presents a ticket clearing method based on estimating passenger route selection probabilities. The method assumes that the number of trains waited by passengers at the origin and transfer stations follows a polynomial distribution. By applying maximum likelihood estimation, the probability of waiting for trains at the origin and transfer stations can be obtained, allowing the inference of the probability of routes to be selected. Synthetic data are used to validate the model, showing an accuracy of 90% and indicating its ability to effectively match the actual probability of the route being selected. By using this method, passenger flow on each line can be further estimated, providing better insight into the distribution of passenger flow within the network. The proposed model allows a more detailed analysis of network passenger flow, facilitating more accurate ticket clearing.

References

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Xie, X., Qin, K., Guo, Y., 2020. Multi-path reachable ticket clearing model for urban rail transit networked operation. Urban Mass Transit, 23(10), 143-147. 10.16037/j.1007-869x.2020.10.032.
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Fu, Q., Liu, R., Hess, S. 2014. A Bayesian modelling framework for individual passenger's probabilistic route choices: A case study on the London underground. https://trid.trb.org/view/1289885.
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Chen, B. 2020. Research and application of accurate clearing model for urban rail transit ticket revenue. Urban Mass Transit, 23(3), 31-33. 10.16037/j.1007-869x.2020.03.008.
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IoTAAI '23: Proceedings of the 2023 5th International Conference on Internet of Things, Automation and Artificial Intelligence
November 2023
902 pages
ISBN:9798400716485
DOI:10.1145/3653081
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

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Published: 03 May 2024

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