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Short-term Load Forecasting With Clustered Hybrid Models Based On Hour Granularity

Published: 09 September 2022 Publication History

Abstract

Although the recent technological achievements have noticeable impact on several aspects of daily life, more and more challenges are raised in practice. As it concerns the Energy field, the need for accurate predictions over time-dependent use cases of large scale remains high. Deep learning approaches have already found great acceptance in energy time-series signals, but there is still much space for improvement. Contributing to the task of short-term load forecasting we compose a hybrid method; first it exploits the statistical profiling of input raw-signals validating them through various complexity metrics; then a series of feature-engineering processes are applied, before fitting a specified recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. During the first stage, we use time series clustering to separate time periods in order to capture better temporal patterns. We evaluate our approach using a public dataset that regards the total load consumption of Spain, thus supporting our assumptions about the benefits of leveraging hybrid models for short-term load forecasting. The proposed method outperforms other competitors, including a different RNN architecture and some representative Machine Learning regressors.

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Cited By

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  • (2024)A multi-granularity hierarchical network for long- and short-term forecasting on multivariate time series dataApplied Soft Computing10.1016/j.asoc.2024.111537157(111537)Online publication date: May-2024

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      SETN '22: Proceedings of the 12th Hellenic Conference on Artificial Intelligence
      September 2022
      450 pages
      ISBN:9781450395977
      DOI:10.1145/3549737
      Publication rights licensed to ACM. ACM acknowledges that this contribution was authored or co-authored by an employee, contractor or affiliate of a national government. As such, the Government retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free right to publish or reproduce this article, or to allow others to do so, for Government purposes only.

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      Published: 09 September 2022

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      Author Tags

      1. Load signal decomposition
      2. Long short-term memory networks
      3. Short-term load forecasting
      4. Signal complexity metrics
      5. Time series clustering

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      • (2024)A multi-granularity hierarchical network for long- and short-term forecasting on multivariate time series dataApplied Soft Computing10.1016/j.asoc.2024.111537157(111537)Online publication date: May-2024

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