A Comparative Study of Methods for Collective Prediction Determination Using Interval Estimates

Recently, research on the Wisdom of Crowd (WoC) has been widely expanded by supporting interval values as an additional representation of underlying predictions. Accordingly, instead of giving single values, ones can express their predictions on a given cognition problem in the form of interval values1. For such a representation, many methods have been proposed for aggregating underlying predictions based on their midpoints. In this case, of course, the outputs of the proposed methods are single values. In some situations, however, the aggregated prediction in the form of interval value can be better representation of underlying predictions. In the current study, we present a comparison of the use of different approaches for aggregating individual predictions including Interval Aggregation and MidPoint Aggregation. Experimental studies have been conducted to determine how do different aggregation methods influence the quality of the obtained collective prediction.