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Using the SLEUTH Model to Evaluated and Analyze the Impact of Urban Sprawl on Agricultural Land in the cities of Kenitra and Mehdia (MOROCCO)

Published: 14 November 2017 Publication History

Abstract

In recent decades, urbanization has seen a remarkable increase, particularly in agglomerates surrounded by rural areas. This phenomenon is developing to the detriment of agricultural land, especially in the Gharb area, which is one of the important food sources for Morocco. The "modeling of urban sprawl using the SLEUTH model" refects the urban dynamics of the cities of Kenitra and Mehdia in the year 2050 and quantifies in terms of surface area the perimeter that will be urbanized by nibbling on agricultural land. In order to do this, the modeling was based on a model input data preparation, a coarse, fine and final calibration procedure and a forecast simulation of urban sprawl between the current and the year 2050.
An analysis of the history of urban evolution has shown that the average annual spatial expansion rate (TESMA) is about 3.57% between 1990 and 2014. The analysis of the urban prediction here at 2050 gave a TESMA forecast of around 2.43%. The expansion shows a decline compared to the period from 1990 to 2014 but which will occupy an area that exceeds 10000 ha which will show a tripling of the current urban. The present situation is critical and requires the elaboration of a Master Plan for Urban Development, the protection of which will be a requirement.

References

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Von Ungern-Sternberg et Da Cunha, Mai 2003, Impacts of urban sprawlProf. Von Ungern-Sternberg et Da Cunha.
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Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de Sebbou, Diagnostics du territoire, Rapport de l'année 2010.
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Jantz, C.A., Goetz, S.J., Shelley, M.K., 2003. Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore Washington metropolitan area. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 30, 25 1--271.
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Candau, J. Rasmussen, S. and Clarke, K. C. 2000 Âń Structure and Dynamics of a Coupled Cellular Automaton for Land Use/Land Cover Change. 4th International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling (GIS/EM4). Banff, Alberta, Canada, September.
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Clarke, K.C., Gazulis, N, Dietzel, C.K., and Goldstein, N.C., 2007, A decade of SLEUTHing: Lessons learned from applications of a cellular automaton land use change model.
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Dietzel C. and Keith C Clarke, 2007, Toward Optimal Calibration of the SLEUTH Land Use Change Model, research article, pages 34,43 and 44.
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Lillesand, R.W. Kiefer & J.W. Chipman, 2004, Remote Sensing and Image Interpretation, Fifth Edition, International Edition.
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Dar Al Omrane, 2014, Orientations du SDAU Kénitra, Rapport de la 1ére phase. Pages 23, 24 et 25.
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Dar Al Omrane, 2014, Orientations du SDAU Kénitra, Rapport de la 1ére phase. Pages 23, 24 et 25.
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EL shalabi M. et al., 2012, Modelling urban growth evolution and land-use changes using GIS based cellular automata and SLEUTH models: the case of Sana'a metropolitan city, Yemen.
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Belfquih Mustapha, Abderafik Chiliah, Charafi Zoubeir, Mostafa Faouzi, Rochdi, Bouazza Essaidi, Charif Meddaoui., 2012, Impact study of urbanization on agricultural land and elaboration of an action plan for land protection in seven regional agricultural development boards, pp: 18--22.

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  1. Using the SLEUTH Model to Evaluated and Analyze the Impact of Urban Sprawl on Agricultural Land in the cities of Kenitra and Mehdia (MOROCCO)

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    ICCWCS'17: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Computing and Wireless Communication Systems
    November 2017
    512 pages
    ISBN:9781450353069
    DOI:10.1145/3167486
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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    Publication History

    Published: 14 November 2017

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    Author Tags

    1. Cellular automata
    2. GIS
    3. Land-use change
    4. SLEUTH
    5. Urban sprawl
    6. remote sensing
    7. supervised classification

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