A system dynamics investigation of project portfolio management evolution in the energy sector: Case study: an Iranian independent power producer

Project portfolio management (PPM) is a commonly used technique to align projects with strategy and to ensure adequate resourcing for projects. In this paper, to gain a better understanding of PPM dynamics, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed. To do so, an Iranian independent power producer was used as a case study in the energy sector; moreover, policy options were derived and generalized for such a developer company.

To cope with the complexity of business processes in a power producer company and to formulate an optimum policy, causal relations and loops were derived first and then state-flow diagrams were designed to simulate the problem in the system, as it is usual in the SD methodology.

The proposed model was applied to a real-world case study to rectify managers’ viewpoint about their business dynamics and to formulate new project portfolio strategies to improve the viability of the company. The model proved how a static portfolio analysis can misguide managers in planning their project portfolio strategies, and how effective feedback can improve PPM in developing companies in the energy sector.

Systems approach, especially SD methodology, has been rarely used to analyze PPM problems in the energy sector. This study highlights the implications of feedback and dynamics in PPM and tries to derive optimal value of portfolios.