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Self-Conditional Probabilities and Probabilistic Interpretations of Belief Functions

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Abstract

We present an interpretation of belief functions within a pure probabilistic framework, namely as normalized self-conditional expected probabilities, and study their mathematical properties. Interpretations of belief functions appeal to partial knowledge. The self-conditional interpretation does this within the traditional probabilistic framework by considering surplus belief in an event emerging from a future observation, conditional on the event occurring. Dempster's original interpretation, in contrast, involves partial knowledge of a belief state. The modal interpretation, currently gaining popularity, models the probability of a proposition being believed (or proved, or known). The versatility of the belief function formalism is demonstrated by the fact that it accommodates very different intuitions.

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Cooke, R., Smets, P. Self-Conditional Probabilities and Probabilistic Interpretations of Belief Functions. Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 32, 269–285 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016777919808

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016777919808