Abstract
Wildfires are a common threat to the Western Ghats region in India, and many protected areas within the Ghat region have been severely battered in the past. This study aims to identify the wildfire risk zones in the Neyyar wildlife sanctuary using GIS technology. The causative factors selected are land cover types, digital elevation model-derived variables (slope, topographic wetness index, aspect), satellite image-based indices (bare soil index, normalized difference water index), and anthropogenic variables (distance from the settlement, distance from the road). This study used the analytical hierarchy process, a multiple-criteria decision-analysis (MCDA) method to compute the weights. The created map divided the Neyyar wildlife sanctuary's fire risk into five zones. The very high-risk zone accounts for around 13% of the sanctuary area. The analysis found that both natural (land cover types and surface moisture representing factors) and anthropogenic (human activity related) factors are responsible for the spread of fire. The validation of the map using MODIS fire data and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method confirmed that the result is acceptable, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.77 and 0.74 for the training and testing datasets, respectively. Hence, it is confirmed that the method adopted in this study is effective and can be used in other areas having similar climate, topography, and vegetation. The prepared map is of utmost importance to the forest department officials, planners, and decision-makers in adopting effective mitigation measures.
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(Source: Landsat 8, Classification: Maximum likelihood), b slope (Source: SRTM DEM, Classification: Natural breaks), c aspect (Source: SRTM DEM, Classification: Natural breaks), d topographic wetness index (Source: SRTM DEM, Classification: Natural breaks)
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The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Salma, Nikhil, S., Danumah, J.H. et al. Prediction capability of the MCDA-AHP model in wildfire risk zonation of a protected area in the Southern Western Ghats. Environmental Sustainability 6, 59–72 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42398-022-00259-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42398-022-00259-0