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The link between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey: evidence from dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations

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Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey. Dynamic ARDL method was used for the period 1960–2015. According to the findings, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between long-term urbanization and CO2. If urbanization increased by 1%, carbon emissions increased by 0.02%. There is a similar relationship between the shocks that will occur in population growth and CO2 emission in the long term. However, there is a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between the two variables. In the relationship between GDP and CO2, there is a positive relationship in the long term. GDP increase of 1% increases CO2 emissions by 0.11%. There is a similar relationship between long-term GDP shocks and CO2 emissions. According to short-term analysis results, energy consumption increases CO2 emissions by the same rate as GDP. However, the astonishing result of the study emerges here. Empirical results show that a long-term positive shock in energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions and a negative shock increases pollution. According to these results, Turkey has not reached the point of sustainable growth. For this reason, this developing country needs to make regulatory implementations and determine future policies for these impacts affecting air pollution.

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Contributions

Writing—original draft, conceptualization: AA; writing—original draft: BA; data curation: BO; supervision, project administration: AA

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Author notes

  1. Alper Aslan, Buket Altinoz and Baki Ozsolak contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Aviation Management, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey

    Alper Aslan

  2. Vocational School, Nisantasi University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Buket Altinoz

  3. Graduate School of Social Sciences, Nevsehir HBV University, Nevşehir, Turkey

    Baki Ozsolak

Authors
  1. Alper Aslan
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  2. Buket Altinoz
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  3. Baki Ozsolak
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Correspondence to Alper Aslan.

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Aslan, A., Altinoz, B. & Ozsolak, B. The link between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey: evidence from dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 52370–52380 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14408-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14408-1

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