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Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method

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Abstract

Hydro-meteorological time series may include trend components mostly due to climate change since about three to four decades. Trend detection and identification in a better and refined manner are among the major current research topics in water resources domain. Even though different methodologies can be found for trend detection in literature, two well-known procedures are the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and recently innovative-Şen trend method, which provides different aspects of the trend. The theoretical basis and application of these two methods are completely different. The MK test gives a holistic monotonic trend without any categorization of the time series into a set of clusters, but the innovative-Şen method is based on cluster and provides categorical trend behavior in a given time series. The main purpose of this paper is to provide important differences between these two approaches and their possible similarities. The applications of the two approaches are given for hydro-meteorological records including relative humidity, temperature, precipitation and runoff from Ergene drainage basin in the north-western part of Turkey. It is observed that although MK trend test does not show significant trend almost in all the cases, the innovative-Şen approach yields trend categorizations as “very low”, “low”, “medium” “high” and “very high”, which should be taken into consideration in future flood (“very high”) and drought (“very low”) studies.

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Acknowledgments

In this study the first and last authors are supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) with grand numbers 1059B141501044 and 1059B141501090 respectively. The authors would like to thank TUBITAK for the support of this study. Also, the authors wish to thank Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) for the supply of long-term monthly mean climatic variables and General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) for sharing flow data in Ergene Basin.

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Author notes

  1. İsmail Dabanlı

    Present address: Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, 29634, SC, USA

  2. Yavuz Selim Güçlü

    Present address: Faculty of Earth Sciences, Hydrogeology Department, King Abdulaziz University, 21589, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering Faculty, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

    İsmail Dabanlı, Zekai Şen & Yavuz Selim Güçlü

  2. Engineering Faculty, Department of Civil Engineering, Fatih Sultan Mehmet Vakif University, Beyoğlu, 34445, Istanbul, Turkey

    Mehmet Öner Yeleğen

  3. Civil Engineering Faculty, Department of Civil Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, Davutpasa, 34220, Istanbul, Turkey

    Eyüp Şişman

  4. State Hydraulic Works (DSI), Çankaya, 06100, Ankara, Turkey

    Bülent Selek

Authors
  1. İsmail Dabanlı
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  2. Zekai Şen
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  5. Bülent Selek
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  6. Yavuz Selim Güçlü
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Correspondence to İsmail Dabanlı.

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Dabanlı, İ., Şen, Z., Yeleğen, M.Ö. et al. Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method. Water Resour Manage 30, 5193–5203 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1478-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1478-4

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