[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/ Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism: do natural disasters incite terror?

  • Published:
Public Choice Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A novel and important issue in contemporary security policy is the impact of natural disasters on terrorism. Natural disasters can strain a society and its government, creating vulnerabilities which terrorist groups might exploit. Using a structured methodology and detailed data on terrorism, disasters, and other relevant controls for 167 countries between 1970 and 2007, we find a strong positive impact of disaster-related deaths on subsequent terrorism incidence and fatalities. Furthermore, the effects differ by disaster type and GDP per capita. The results consistently are significant and robust across a multitude of disaster and terrorism measures for a diverse set of model specifications.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
£29.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (United Kingdom)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abadie, A. (2006). Poverty, political freedom, and the roots of terrorism. American Economic Review, 96(2), 50–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Albala-Bertrand, J. M. (1993). The political economy of large natural disasters: with special reference to developing countries. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Albala-Bertrand, J. M. (2000). Complex emergencies versus natural disasters: an analytical comparison of causes and effects. Oxford Development Studies, 28(2), 187–204.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allison, P. D., & Waterman, R. P. (2002). Fixed–effects negative binomial regression models. Sociological Methodology, 32(1), 247–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Atkinson, S. E., Sandler, T., & Tschirhart, J. (1987). Terrorism in a bargaining framework. Journal of Law and Economics, 30(1), 1–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Azam, J.-P., & Delacroix, A. (2006). Aid and the delegated fight against terrorism. Review of Development Economics, 10(2), 330–334.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Azam, J.-P., & Thelen, V. (2008). The roles of foreign aid and education in the war on terror. Public Choice, 135(3–4), 375–397.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bandyopadhyay, S., Sandler, T., & Younas, J. (2011). Foreign aid as counterterrorism policy. Oxford Economic Papers, 63(3), 423–447.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basuchoudhary, A., & Shughart, W. F. II (2010). On ethnic conflict and the origins of transnational terrorism. Defence and Peace Economics, 21(1), 65–87.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benmelech, E., & Berrebi, C. (2007). Human capital and the productivity of suicide bombers. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3), 223–238.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berman, E., & Laitin, D. D. (2008). Religion, terrorism and public goods: testing the club model. Journal of Public Economics, 92(10–11), 1942–1967.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berrebi, C., & Klor, E. F. (2006). Terrorism and electoral outcomes: theory and evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(6), 899–925.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berrebi, C., & Klor, E. F. (2008). Are voters sensitive to terrorism? Direct evidence from the Israeli electorate. American Political Science Review, 102(3), 279–301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berrebi, C., & Lakdawalla, D. (2007). How does terrorism risk vary across space and time? An analysis based on the Israeli experience. Defense and Peace Economics, 18(2), 113–131.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bolin, B. (2007). Race, class, ethnicity, and disaster vulnerability. In H. Rodríguez, E. L. Quarantelli & R. R. Dynes (Eds.), Handbook of disaster research (pp. 113–129). New York: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N. P., & Theisen, O. M. (2010). Implications of climate change for armed conflict. In R. Mearns & A. Norton (Eds.), Social dimensions of climate change: equity and vulnerability in a warming world (pp. 75–102). Washington: The World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burgoon, B. (2006). On welfare and terror: social welfare policies and political-economic roots of terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(2), 176–203.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cannon, T. (1994). Vulnerability analysis and the explanation of natural disasters. In A. Varley (Ed.), Disasters, development and the environment (pp. 13–30). Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) (2010a). EM-DAT: the OFDA/CRED international disaster database. Brussels: Université Catholique de Louvain.

    Google Scholar 

  • Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) (2010b). EM-DAT: explanatory notes. Resource document. Université Catholique de Louvain. http://www.emdat.be/explanatory-notes. Accessed 20 April 2010.

  • Cohen, C., & Werker, E. D. (2008). The political economy of natural disasters. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52(6), 795–819.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dugan, L., LaFree, G., & Piquero, A. (2005). Testing a rational choice model of airline hijackings. Criminology, 43(4), 1031–1065.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (2000). Is transnational terrorism becoming more threatening? Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(3), 307–332.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (2002). Patterns of transnational terrorism, 1970–1999: alternative time-series estimates. International Studies Quarterly, 46(2), 145–165.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (2006). Distribution of transnational terrorism among countries by income class and geography after 9/11. International Studies Quarterly, 50(2), 367–393.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., Sandler, T., & Gaibulloev, K. (2011). Domestic versus transnational terrorism: data, decomposition, and dynamics. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), 355–371.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Escaleras, M., Anbarci, N., & Register, C. A. (2007). Public sector corruption and major earthquakes: a potentially deadly interaction. Public Choice, 132(1), 209–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freedom House (2010). Freedom in the world: the annual survey of political rights and civil liberties. Washington: Freedom House.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gates, R. M., & US Department of Defense (2010). Quadrennial defense review report. Washington: US Department of Defense.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hasan, S. S. (2010). Pakistan suicide bomb on police, children among dead. Online article. BBC. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11195797. Accessed 15 July 2011.

  • Hegre, H., & Sambanis, N. (2006). Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(4), 508–535.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirshleifer, J. (1991). The paradox of power. Economics & Politics, 3(3), 177–200.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huxley, T. (2005). The tsunami and security: Asia’s 9/11? Survival, 47(1), 123–132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahn, M. E. (2005). The death toll from natural disasters: the role of income, geography, and institutions. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(2), 271–284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krieger, T., & Meierrieks, D. (2011). What causes terrorism? Public Choice, 147(1), 3–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krueger, A. B., & Laitin, D. D. (2008). Kto kogo? A cross-country study of the origins and targets of terrorism. In P. Keefer & N. Loayza (Eds.), Terrorism, economic development, and political openness (pp. 148–173). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Krueger, A. B., & Malecková, J. (2003). Education, poverty and terrorism: is there a causal connection? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 119–144.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lai, B. (2007). “Draining the swamp”: an empirical examination of the production of international terrorism, 1968–1998. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 24(4), 297–310.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landes, W. M. (1978). An economic study of US aircraft hijacking, 1961–1976. Journal of Law and Economics, 21(1), 1–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landsea, C. W. (2000). El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones. In H. F. Diaz & V. Markgraf (Eds.), El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: multiscale variability and global and regional impacts (pp. 149–181). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Le Billon, P., & Waizenegger, A. (2007). Peace in the wake of disaster? Secessionist conflicts and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Transactions—Institute of British Geographers, 32(3), 411–427.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, Q., & Schaub, D. (2004). Economic globalization and transnational terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2), 230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McDowall, S., & Wang, Y. (2009). An analysis of international tourism development in Thailand: 1994–2007. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 14(4), 351–370.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mustafa, D. (1998). Structural causes of vulnerability to flood hazard in Pakistan. Economic Geography, 74(3), 289–305.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2010a). Global terrorism database. College Park: University of Maryland.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2010b). Global terrorism database: data collection methodology. Resource document. University of Maryland. http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/using-gtd/. Accessed 24 April 2010.

  • National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2010c). Global terrorism database: codebook. Resource document. University of Maryland. http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/downloads/Codebook.pdf. Accessed 24 April 2010.

  • Nel, P., & Righarts, M. (2008). Natural disasters and the risk of violent civil conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 52(1), 159–185.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olson, R. S., & Drury, A. C. (1997). Un-therapeutic communities: a cross-national analysis of post-disaster political unrest. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 15(2), 221–238.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pelling, M., & Dill, K. (2006). Natural disasters as catalysts of political action. Media Development, 53(4), 7–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Piazza, J. A. (2007). Draining the swamp: democracy promotion, state failure, and terrorism in 19 Middle Eastern countries. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 30(6), 521–539.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piazza, J. A. (2008). Incubators of terror: do failed and failing states promote transnational terrorism? International Studies Quarterly, 52(3), 469–488.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Political Risk Services (2011). International country risk guide. New York: Political Risk Services.

    Google Scholar 

  • Renner, M., & Chafe, Z. (2007). Beyond disasters: creating opportunities for peace. Washington: WorldWatch Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robison, K., Crenshaw, E., & Jenkins, J. C. (2006). Ideologies of violence: the social origins of Islamist and Leftist transnational terrorism. Social Forces, 84(4), 2009–2026.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shakir, A. (2010). UN halts aid distribution after female suicide bomber kills 46 in Pakistan. Online article. Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-25/pakistan-blast-kills-38-people-edhi-ambulance-service-spokesman-reports.html. Accessed 15 July 2011.

  • Shughart, W. F. II (2006). An analytical history of terrorism, 1945–2000. Public Choice, 128(1), 7–39.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simcoe, T. (2007). XTPQML: stata module to estimate fixed-effects Poisson quasi-ml regression with robust standard errors. Boston: Boston College Department of Economics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sobel, R. S., & Leeson, P. T. (2006). Government’s response to hurricane Katrina: a public choice analysis. Public Choice, 127(1), 55–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sorensen, J. H. (2000). Hazard warning systems: review of 20 years of progress. Natural Hazards Review, 1(2), 119–125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Varner, B. (2010). Pakistan flood aid helps fight terrorism as peace ‘fragile,’ Qureshi says. Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-20/pakistan-flood-aid-helps-fight-terrorism-as-peace-fragile-qureshi-says.html. Accessed 21 May 2011.

  • Walton, M. (2005). Scientists: Sumatra quake longest ever recorded. CNN. http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/05/19/sumatra.quake/index.html. Accessed 21 April 2011.

  • Waraich, O. (2010). Religious minorities suffering worst in Pakistan floods. Online article. Time. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2015849,00.html. Accessed 15 July 2011.

  • Weinberg, L. B., & Eubank, W. L. (1998). Terrorism and democracy: what recent events disclose. Terrorism and Political Violence, 10(1), 108–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • West, M., Sanches, J. J., & McNutt, S. R. (2005). Periodically triggered seismicity at Mount Wrangell, Alaska, after the Sumatra earthquake. Science, 308(5725), 1144–1146.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., & Davis, I. (2003). At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters (2nd ed.). London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wooldridge, J. M. (1999). Distribution-free estimation of some nonlinear panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 77–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge/London: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2010). World development indicators. Washington: World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Claude Berrebi or Jordan Ostwald.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Berrebi, C., Ostwald, J. Earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism: do natural disasters incite terror?. Public Choice 149, 383 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9868-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9868-x

Keywords

JEL Classification

Navigation