Abstract
Risk assessment of cascade reservoir dams is not only the key to ensure the safety of the basin, but also the objective requirement of dam risk management. Based on the development status of cascade reservoirs in China, the complexity of dam risk management of cascade reservoirs compared with a single reservoir was analyzed. By reviewing the advances on the studies of dam risk in cascade reservoirs, this paper summarized their limitations in terms of scientificity and practicability. Moreover, some concepts and methods were proposed on the risk assessment of cascade reservoirs: (1) The dam risk of a cascade reservoir was decomposed into own risk and additional risk, the consequence of its dam breach was decomposed into direct loss and potential loss, and an influence coefficient was defined to reflect the risk transmission and superposition degree among cascade reservoirs; (2) The related concepts and formulas for the calculation of dam risk probability and consequence of cascade reservoirs were proposed, which realized the transition of dam risk assessment method from a single reservoir to cascade reservoirs; (3) A project rank classification method for cascade reservoirs was proposed, which took into account not only the project scale and benefits in socioeconomic development, but also the successive dam breaches possibility and consequences. This study is of great significance to clarify the focus of future research and promote the practical application of dam risk management in cascade reservoirs.
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Acknowledgements
This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 52179144,52079127, U2040224, 51679222, 51709239), the Fund of National Dam Safety Research Center (Grant No. CX2021B01), the Young Talent Support Project of Henan Province (Grant No. 2021HYTP024), Program for Science and Technology Innovation Talents in Universities of Henan Province (HASTIT) (Grant No. 22HASTIT011)
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Conceptualization, TW and ZL; methodology, TW and WG; validation ZL and WG; formal analysis, TW and ZL; investigation, TW and YJ; writing—original draft preparation, TW; writing—review and editing, TW and ZL; supervision, ZL; funding acquisition, ZL and WG.
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Wang, T., Li, Z., Ge, W. et al. Risk assessment methods of cascade reservoir dams: a review and reflection. Nat Hazards 115, 1601–1622 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05609-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05609-z