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Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China

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Abstract

Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China.

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Notes

  1. The five types of natural hazards accounted for 91.75, 97.22 and 90.51 % of the affected population, death toll and direct economic losses, respectively, in China for the period of 2002–2011 (MCAC 2012).

  2. The eastern region of China includes Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan; the western region includes Shannxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Tibet; and the central region are Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henai, Hubei and Hunan.

  3. Ecological footprint is a negative indicator in terms of capacity for adaptation. The higher the value of ecological footprint, the more resource the human required, which results in more serious impacts on ecology and environment. Therefore, the value of ecological footprint was multiplied by a negative one when calculating the adaptive capacity index.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (2012CB955402) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130748). The authors would like to acknowledge anonymous reviewers for their useful comments which have greatly improved the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Yang Zhou, Yansui Liu & Wenxiang Wu

  2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Ning Li

  3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Ning Li

  4. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Ning Li

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  1. Yang Zhou
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Correspondence to Ning Li.

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Zhou, Y., Liu, Y., Wu, W. et al. Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China. Nat Hazards 78, 257–280 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1713-y

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