Abstract
In the southwestern U.S., wildland fire frequency and area burned have steadily increased in recent decades, a pattern attributable to multiple ignition sources. To examine contributing landscape factors and patterns related to the occurrence of large (⩾20 ha in extent) fires in the forested region of northern Arizona, we assembled a database of lightning- and human-caused fires for the period 1 April to 30 September, 1986–2000. At the landscape scale, we used a weights-of-evidence approach to model and map the probability of occurrence based on all fire types (n = 203), and lightning-caused fires alone (n = 136). In total, large fires burned 101,571 ha on our study area. Fires due to lightning were more frequent and extensive than those caused by humans, although human-caused fires burned large areas during the period of our analysis. For all fires, probability of occurrence was greatest in areas of high topographic roughness and lower road density. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forest vegetation and mean annual precipitation were less important predictors. Our modeling results indicate that seasonal large fire events are a consequence of non-random patterns of occurrence, and that patterns generated by these events may affect the regional fire regime more extensively than previously thought. Identifying the factors that influence large fires will improve our ability to target resource protection efforts and manage fire risk at the landscape scale.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
J.K. Agee (1998) ArticleTitleThe landscape ecology of western forest fire regimes Northwest Sci. 72 24–34
F.P. Agterberg (1989) ArticleTitleComputer programs for mineral exploration Science 245 76–81
F.P. Agterberg Q. Cheng (2002) ArticleTitleConditional independence test for weights-of-evidence modeling Nat. Resour. Res. 11 249–255 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1021193827501
C.D. Allen (2002) Lots of lightning and plenty of people: An ecological history of fire in the upland Southwest T.R. Vale (Eds) FireNative Peoples, and the Natural Landscape Island Press Covelo, CA, USA 143–193
C.D. Allen M. Savage D.A. Falk K.F. Suckling T.W. Swetnam T. Schulke P.B. Stacey P. Morgan M. Hoffman J.T. Klingel (2002) ArticleTitleEcological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective Ecol. Appl. 12 1418–1433
P.M. Attiwill (1994) ArticleTitleThe disturbance of forest ecosystems: the ecological basis for conservative management Forest Ecol. Manage. 63 247–300 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0378-1127(94)90114-7
T.C. Bailey A.C. Gatrell (1995) Interactive Spatial Data Analysis Longman Group Limited Essex, UK
Barrows J.S. 1978. Lightning fires in southwestern forests. Final Report to USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. Cooperative Agreement 16-568-CA. Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Bonham-Carter G.F., Agterberg F.P. and Wright D.F. 1989. Weights of evidence modelling: a new approach to mapping mineral potential. In: Agterberg F.P and Bonham-Carter G.F. (eds.) Statistical Applications in the Earth Sciences. Geological Survey of Canada paper 89-9, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, pp. 171–183.
R.T. Brown J.K. Agee J.F. Franklin (2004) ArticleTitleForest restoration and fire: principles in the context of place Conserv. Biol. 18 903–912 Occurrence Handle10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.521_1.x
M.W. Brunson B.A. Shindler (2004) ArticleTitleGeographic variation in social acceptability of wildland fuels management in the western United States Soc. Nat. Resour. 17 661–678 Occurrence Handle10.1080/08941920490480688
J.A. Cardille S.J. Ventura M.G. Turner (2001) ArticleTitleEnvironmental and social factors influencing wildfires in the Upper Midwest, United States Ecol. Appl. 11 111–127
P. Case B. Banks E. Butler R. Gosnell (2000) Assessing potential wildfire effects on people R.N. Sampson R.D. Atkinson J.W. Lewis (Eds) Mapping Wildfire Hazards and Risks The Haworth Press New York, NY, USA 159–176
Y.H. Chou R.A. Minnich R.A. Chase (1993) ArticleTitleMapping probability of fire occurrence in the San Jacinto Mountains, California Environ. Manage. 17 129–140 Occurrence Handle10.1007/BF02393801
P.J. Clark F.C. Evans (1954) ArticleTitleDistance to nearest neighbor as a measure of spatial relationships in populations Ecology 35 445–453 Occurrence Handle10.2307/1931034
W.W. Covington (2000) ArticleTitleHelping western forests heal: the prognosis is poor for U.S. forest ecosystems Nature 408 135–136 Occurrence Handle11089949 Occurrence Handle1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3cXotFCjtL4%3D Occurrence Handle10.1038/35041641
W.W. Covington P.Z. Fulé M.M. Moore S.C. Hart T.E. Kolb J.N. Sackett M.R. Wagner (1997) ArticleTitleRestoring ecosystem health in ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest J. Forest. 95 23–29
W.W. Covington M.M. Moore (1994) ArticleTitleSouthwestern ponderosa forest structure and resource conditions: changes since Euro-American settlement J. Forest. 92 39–47
Dahms C.W. and Geils B.W. (eds.) 1997. An assessment of forest ecosystem health in the Southwest. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RM-GTR-295. Fort Collins, CO, USA.
V.H. Dale L.A. Joyce S. McNulty R.P. Neilson M.P. Ayres M.D. Flannigan P.J. Hanson L.C. Irland A.E. Lugo C.J. Peterson D. Simberloff F.J. Swanson B.J. Stocks B.M. Wotton (2001) ArticleTitleClimate change and forest disturbances BioScience 51 723–734 Occurrence Handle10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:CCAFD]2.0.CO;2
J.B. Davis (1990) ArticleTitleThe wildland-urban interface: paradise or battleground J. Forest. 88 26–31
L.F. DeBano D.G. Neary P.F. Ffolliott (1998) Fire's Effects on Ecosystems John Wiley and Sons New York, NY, USA
D.A. DellaSala E. Frost (2001) ArticleTitleAn ecologically based strategy for fire and fuels management in national forest roadless areas Fire Manage. Today 61 12–23
M.J.P. Vasconcelos Particlede S. Silva M. Tomé M. Alvim J.M.C. Pereira (2001) ArticleTitleSpatial prediction of fire ignition probabilities: comparing logistic regression and neural networks Photogramm. Eng. Remote Sens. 67 73–81
C. Díaz-Avalos D.L. Peterson E. Alvarado S.A. Ferguson J.E. Besag (2001) ArticleTitleSpace–time modelling of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains, Oregon Can. J. Forest Res. 31 1579–1593 Occurrence Handle10.1139/cjfr-31-9-1579
M.P. Dombeck J.E. Williams C.A. Wood (2004) ArticleTitleWildfire policy and public lands: integrating scientific understanding with social concerns across landscapes Conserv. Biol. 18 883–889 Occurrence Handle10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00491.x
R.T.T. Forman (2000) ArticleTitleEstimate of the area affected ecologically by the road system in the United States Conserv. Biol. 14 31–35 Occurrence Handle10.1046/j.1523-1739.2000.99299.x
P.Z. Fulé T.A. Heinlein W.W. Covington M.M. Moore (2003) ArticleTitleAssessing fire regimes on Grand Canyon landscapes with fire-scar and fire-record data Int. J. Wildland Fire 12 129–145 Occurrence Handle10.1071/WF02060
J.L. Gelbard J. Belnap (2003) ArticleTitleRoads as conduits for exotic plant invasions in a semiarid landscape Conserv. Biol. 17 420–432 Occurrence Handle10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01408.x
J.R. Gosz D.I. Moore G.A. Shore H.D. Grover W. Rison C. Rison (1995) ArticleTitleLightning estimates of precipitation location and quantity on the Sevilleta LTER, New Mexico Ecol. Appl. 5 1141–1150
Graham R.T., McCaffrey S. and Jain T.B. (eds.) 2004. Science basis for changing forest structure to modify wildfire behavior and severity. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-120. Fort Collins, CO, USA.
D.F. Grigal (2000) ArticleTitleEffects of extensive forest management on soil productivity Forest Ecol. Manage. 138 167–185 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00395-9
H.D. Grissino-Mayer T.W. Swetnam (2000) ArticleTitleCentury-scale climate forcing of fire regimes in the American Southwest The Holocene 10 213–220 Occurrence Handle10.1191/095968300668451235
Guyette R.P. and Dey D.C. 2000. Humans, topography, and wildland fire: the ingredients for long-term patterns in ecosystems. In: Proceedings of the Workshop on FirePeopleand the Central Hardwoods Landscape. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report NE-274. Fort Collins, CO, USApp. 28–35.
E.K. Heyerdahl L.B. Brubaker J.K. Agee (2001) ArticleTitleSpatial controls of historical fire regimes: a multiscale example from the interior West, USA Ecology 82 660–678 Occurrence Handle10.2307/2680187
J.E. Keeley C.J. Fotheringham (2001) ArticleTitleHistoric fire regime in southern California shrublands Conserv. Biol. 15 1536–1548 Occurrence Handle10.1046/j.1523-1739.2001.00097.x
Kemp L.D., Bonham-Carter G.F., Raines G.L. and Looney C.G. 2001. Arc-SDM: ArcView extension for spatial data modelling using weights of evidencelogistic regression, fuzzy logic, and neural network analysis. [Online: (http://ntserv.gis.nrcan.gc.ca/sdm/).].
M.E. Lyford S.T. Jackson J.L. Betancourt S.T. Gray (2003) ArticleTitleInfluence of landscape structure and climate variability on a Late Holocene plant migration Ecol. Monogr. 73 567–583
B.D. Malamud J.D.A. Millington G.L.W. Perry (2005) ArticleTitleCharacterizing wildfire regimes in the United States Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102 4694–4699 Occurrence Handle15781868 Occurrence Handle1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXjt1Oiu74%3D Occurrence Handle10.1073/pnas.0500880102
K. McGarigal W.H. Romme M. Crist E. Roworth (2001) ArticleTitleCumulative effects of roads and logging on landscape structure in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado (USA) Landscape Ecol. 16 327–349 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1011185409347
D. McKenzie Z. Gedalof D.L. Peterson P. Mote (2004) ArticleTitleClimatic change, wildfire, and conservation Conserv. Biol. 18 890–902 Occurrence Handle10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00492.x
S.A. Mensing R.G. Elston SuffixJr. G.L. Raines R.J. Tausch C.L. Nowak (2000) ArticleTitleA GIS model to predict the location of fossil packrat (Neotoma) middens in central Nevada West. N. Am. Nat. 60 111–120
L.F. Neuenschwander J.P. Menakis M. Miller R.N. Sampson C. Hardy B. Averill R. Mask (2000) Indexing Colorado watersheds to risk of wildfire R.N. Sampson R.D. Atkinson J.W. Lewis (Eds) Mapping Wildfire Hazards and Risks The Haworth Press New York, NY, USA 35–56
J. Podur D.L. Martell F. Csillag (2003) ArticleTitleSpatial patterns of lightning-caused forest fires in Ontario Ecol. Model. 164 1–20 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00386-1
H.K. Preisler D.R. Brillinger R.E. Burgan J.W. Benoit (2004) ArticleTitleProbability based models for estimation of wildfire risk Int. J. Wildland Fire 13 133–142 Occurrence Handle10.1071/WF02061
J.P. Prestemon J.M. Pye D.T. Butry T.P. Holmes D.E. Mercer (2002) ArticleTitleUnderstanding broadscale wildfire risks in a human-dominated landscape Forest Sci. 48 685–693
G.L. Raines M.J. Mihalasky (2002) ArticleTitleA reconnaissance method for delineation of tracts for regional-scale mineral-resource assessment based on geologic-map data Nat. Resour. Res. 11 241–248 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1021138910662
R.A. Reed J. JohnsonBarnard W.L. Baker (1996) ArticleTitleContribution of roads to forest fragmentation in the Rocky Mountains Conserv. Biol. 10 1098–1106 Occurrence Handle10.1046/j.1523-1739.1996.10041098.x
Sackett S.S. and Haase S.M. 1996. Fuel loadings in southwestern ecosystems of the United States. In: Proceedings of the Symposium on Fire on Madrean Province Ecosystems. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RM-GTR-289. Fort Collins, CO, USApp. 187–192.
Sisk T.D., Prather J.W., Hampton H.M., Aumack E.N., Xu Y. and Dickson B.G. In Press. Participatory landscape analysis to guide restoration of ponderosa pine ecosystems in the American Southwest. Landscape Urban Plan.
D.J. Spiegelhalter (1986) ArticleTitleProbabilistic prediction in patient management Stat. Med. 5 421–433 Occurrence Handle3786996 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:BiiD28bhvVM%3D
Swetnam T.W. 1990. Fire history and climate in the southwestern United States. In: Krammes J.S. (eds.) Proceedings of the Symposium on Effects of Fire Management of Southwestern Natural Resources. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RM-191. Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Swetnam T.W. and Baisan C.H. 1994. Historical fire regime patterns in the southwestern United States since AD 1700. In: Allen C.D. (eds.) Fire Effects in Southwestern Forests. Proceedings of the second La Mesa fire symposium. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RM-GTR286. Fort Collins, CO, USA, pp. 11–32.
T.W. Swetnam J.L. Betancourt (1990) ArticleTitleFire-southern oscillation relations in the southwestern United States Science 249 1017–1020
T.W. Swetnam J.L. Betancourt (1998) ArticleTitleMesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest J. Climate 11 3128–3147 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3128:MDAERT>2.0.CO;2
P.E. Thornton S.W. Running M.A. White (1997) ArticleTitleGenerating surfaces of daily meteorology variables over large regions of complex terrain J. Hydrol. 190 214–251 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03128-9
USDA Forest Service. 1999. National fire occurrence data 1986–1996. [Online: (http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fuelman/).].
USDA Forest Service. 2004. Southwest area wildland fire operations website. [Online: (http://www.fs.fed.us/r3/fire/).].
USDA and USDI [USDA Forest Service and U.S. Department of the Interior] 2000. National fire plan: managing the impact of wildfires on communities and the environment. A report to the President in response to the wildfires of 2000. [Online: (http://www.fireplan.gov)].
Vankat J.L. 1985. Patterns of lightning ignitions in Sequoia National Park, California. In: Proceedings, Symposiumand Workshop on Wilderness Fire USDA Forest Service General Technical Report INT-182, Ogden, UT, USA., pp. 408–411
J.W. Wagtendonk Particlevan (1991) Spatial analysis of lightning strikes in Yosemite National Park P.L. Andrews D.F. Potts (Eds) Proceedings of the 11th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology Society of American Foresters Bethesda, MD, USA 605–611
Weatherspoon C.P. 1996. Fire-silviculture relationships in Sierra forests. In: Sierra Nevada ecosystem project: final report to congress. Assessments and scientific management options, Vol. 2, Section 6. University of California, Centers for Water and Wildland Resources, Davis, CA, USA, pp. 1167–1176.
R.J. Whelan (1995) The Ecology of Fire Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dickson, B.G., Prather, J.W., Xu, Y. et al. Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA. Landscape Ecol 21, 747–761 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-005-5475-x
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-005-5475-x