Abstract
One of the major drawbacks of the existing fuzzy time series forecasting models is the fact that they only provide a single-point forecasted value just like the output of the traditional time series methods. Hence, they cannot provide a decision analyst more useful information. The aim of this present research is to design an improved fuzzy time series forecasting method in which the forecasted value will be a trapezoidal fuzzy number instead of a single-point value. Furthermore, the proposed method may also increase the forecasting accuracy. Two numerical data sets were used to illustrate the proposed method and compare the forecasting accuracy with three fuzzy time series methods. The results of the comparison indicate that the proposed method can generate forecasting values that are more accurate.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.References
S.M. Chen (1996) ArticleTitleForecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series Fuzzy Sets and Systems 81 311–319 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0165-0114(95)00220-0
S.M. Chen (2002) ArticleTitleForecasting enrollments based on high-order fuzzy time-series Cybernetics and Systems 33 1–16 Occurrence Handle10.1080/019697202753306479
S.M. Chen J.R. Hwang (2000) ArticleTitleTemperature prediction using fuzzy time series IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man, & Cybernetics 30 263–275 Occurrence Handle10.1109/3477.836375
K.H. Huarng (2001a) ArticleTitleHeuristic models of fuzzy time series for forecasting Fuzzy Sets and Systems 123 369–386 Occurrence Handle1864183 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0165-0114(00)00093-2
K.H. Huarng (2001b) ArticleTitleEffective lengths of intervals to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series Fuzzy Sets and Systems 123 387–394 Occurrence Handle1864184 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0165-0114(00)00057-9
J.R. Hwang S.M. Chen C.H. Lee (1998) ArticleTitleHandling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series Fuzzy Sets and System 100 217–228 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0165-0114(97)00121-8
H.S. Lee M.T. Chou (2004) ArticleTitleFuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy time series International Journal of Computer Mathematics 81 781–789 Occurrence Handle02128001 Occurrence Handle2172027 Occurrence Handle10.1080/00207160410001712288
National Science Council (1995–2004). Indicator of science and technology Republic of China. R.O.C.: National Science Council.
Q. Song B.S. Chissom (1993a) ArticleTitleFuzzy forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series-Part 1 Fuzzy Sets and Systems 54 1–9 Occurrence Handle1215569 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0165-0114(93)90355-L
Q. Song B.S. Chissom (1993b) ArticleTitleFuzzy Time Series and Its Models Fuzzy Sets and Systems 54 269–277 Occurrence Handle1215569 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0165-0114(93)90372-O
Q. Song B.S. Chissom (1994) ArticleTitleFuzzy forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series-Part 2 Fuzzy Sets and Systems 62 1–8 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0165-0114(94)90067-1
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, HT. An improved fuzzy time series forecasting method using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy Optim Decis Making 6, 63–80 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10700-006-0025-9
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10700-006-0025-9