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Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Bago River Basin, Myanmar

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Abstract

Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle is important for basin scale water resources management. This study aims to investigate the potential impacts of land use and climate change on the hydrology of the Bago River Basin in Myanmar. Two scenarios from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) were used to project the future climate of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Six general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were selected to project the future climate in the basin. An increase of average temperature in the range of 0.7 to 1.5 °C and 0.9 to 2.7 °C was observed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, in future periods. Similarly, average annual precipitation shows a distinct increase in all three periods with the highest increase in 2050s. A well calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the land use and climate change impacts on future stream flows in the basin. It is observed that the impact of climate change on stream flow is higher than the land use change in the near future. The combined impacts of land use and climate change can increase the annual stream flow up to 68 % in the near future. The findings of this study would be beneficial to improve land and water management decisions and in formulating adaptation strategies to reduce the negative impacts, and harness the positive impacts of land use and climate change in the Bago River Basin.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the financial support provided by a Norwegian Scholarship and Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand, to conduct this research. The authors would also like to thank the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar for providing valuable data for the research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand

    Sangam Shrestha & Aung Ye Htut

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  1. Sangam Shrestha
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Correspondence to Sangam Shrestha.

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Shrestha, S., Htut, A.Y. Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Bago River Basin, Myanmar. Environ Model Assess 21, 819–833 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-016-9511-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-016-9511-9

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