Abstract
This paper is among the first to report on the full integration of basin-scale models that include projections of the demand and supply of water and energy for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sector users. We link two widely used regional planning models that allow one to study the impact of rising climate variability on water and electricity use in Sacramento, California. Historic data combined with the current energy and water system configuration was used to assess the implications of changes in temperature and precipitation. Climate simulations suggest that electricity imports to the region would increase during hot dry spells, when regional power production is most constrained. In particular, regional imports of electricity would increase over 35 % in hot dry years, assuming a 4 °C increase in average temperature and a 25 % decrease in average precipitation.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Additional detail about resource demand and supply functions are included in a supplemental table.
Consumnes withdrawals and consumption average 5000 acre-feet per year.
References
Alawaji S, Smiai MS, Rafique S (1995) PV-powered water pumping and desalination plant for remote areas in Saudi Arabia. Appl Energy 52(2–3):283–289
Alcamo J (2003) WaterGAP: development and application of a global model for water withdrawals and availability. Hydrol Sci J 48(3):317–37
Bazillian M, Rogner H, Howells M, Hermann S, Arent D, Gielen D, Steduto P, Mueller A, Komor P, Tol RSJ, Yumkella KK (2011) Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach. Energy Policy 39(12):7896–7906
Campana PE, Li H, Yan J (2013) Dynamic modelling of a PV pumping system with special consideration on water demand. Appl Energy 112:635–645
Cayan D (2014) Preliminary selection of GCMs for the representative climate scenarios for CA. Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Pers Commun
Dale L, Dogrul E, Brush C, Kadir K, Chung F, Miller M, Vicunia S (2013) Simulating the impact of drought on central valley hydrology, groundwater and cropping. Br J Environ Clim Chang 3(3):271–291
De Fraiture C (2007) Integrated water and food analysis at the global and basin level. An application of WATERSIM. Water Resour Manag 21:185–98
Dubreuil A, Assoumou E, Bouckaert S, Selosse S, Maizi N (2013) Water modeling in an energy optimization framework—the water-scarce middle east context. Appl Energy 101:268–279
Hermann S, Welsch M, Ericsdotter, Segerström R, Howells, MI, Young C, Alfstad T, Rogner H-H, Steduto P (2012) Climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interlinkages in Burkina Faso: an analysis of agricultural intensification and bioenergy production. Nat Res Forum 36(4)
Howells M, Rogner H-H, Strachan N, Heap C, Huntington H, Kypreos S, Hughes A, Silveira S, DeCarolish J, Bazillian M, Roehrl A (2011) OSeMOSYS: the open source energy modeling system: an introduction to its ethos, structure and development. Energy Policy 39(10):5850–5870.2
Howells M, Hermann S, Welsch M, Bazilian M, Segerström R, Alfstad T, Gielen D, Rogner H-H, Fischer G, van Velthuizen H, Wiberg D, Young C, Roehrl RA, Mueller A, Steduto P, Ramma I (2013) Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies. Nat Clim Chang 3:621–626
Karali N (2012) Design and development of a large scale energy model. Ph.D. Thesis. Bogazici University. Istanbul, Turkey; 2012
Koch H, Vögele S (2013) Hydro-climatic conditions and thermoelectric electricity generation-Part I: development of models. Energy 63:42–51
Labadie JW, Baldo ML, Larson R (200) MODSIM: decision support system for river basin management: documentation and user manual. Department of Civil Engineering. Colorado State University
Loulou R, Goldstein G, Noble K (2004) Documentation for the MARKAL family of models. IEAETSAP; 2004
Loulou R, Remne U, Kanudia A, Lehtila A, Goldstein G (2005) Documentation for the TIMES model part i. Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme, Paris
Madani K, Lund, JR (2010) Estimated impacts of climate warming on California’s high elevation hydropower. Climatic Change 102(3-4):521–538
Ould-Amrouchea S, Rekioua D, Hamidat A (2010) Modelling photovoltaic water pumping systems and evaluation of their CO2 emissions mitigation potential. Appl Energy 87(11):3451–3459
Pierce DW, Das T, Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Miller NL, Bao Y, Kanamitsu M, Yoshimura K, Snyder MA, Sloan LC, Franco G, Tyree M (2012) Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling. Climate Dynam 40:839–856
Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) (2013) Private data from SMUD for Sacramento region weekly and monthly electricity demand and generation in 2010. 2012. Sacramento Regional Water Authority (RWA). Private data from RWA for Sacramento region weekly water demand in 2010
Sattler S, Macknick D, Yates D, Flores-Lopez F, Lopez A, Rogers J (2012) Linking electricity and water models to assess electricity choices at water-relevant scales. Environ Res Lett 7(4):045804
Schrattenholzer L (1981) The energy supply model MESSAGE. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Stillwell AS, Clayton ME, Webber ME (2011) Technical analysis of a river basin-based model of advanced power plant cooling technologies for mitigating water management challenges. Environ Res Lett 6(3):034015
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). Long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system user guide for version 2011. <http://www.energycommunity.org/documents/LEAP2011UserGuideEnglish.pdf> [last accessed October 2014]
Van der Voort E, Donnie E, Thonet C, Bois d’Enghien E, Dechamps C, Guilmot J (1984) Energy supply modeling package EFOM-12C Mark 1 mathematical description. Commission of the European Comminities, Louvain-a-Neuve
van Vliet MTH, Vögele S, Rübbelke D (2013) Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices. Environ Res Lett 8:035010
Vicuna S, Dale L, Dracup J (2011) Climate change impacts on the operation of two high elevation hydropower systems in California. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0301-8
Welsch M, Hermann S, Howells M, Rogner HH, Young C, Rammad I, Bazilian M, Fischer G, Alfstad T, Gielen D, Le Blanch D, Röhrl A, Steduto P, Müller A (2014) Adding value with CLEWSModelling the energy system and its interdependencies for Mauritius. Appl Energy 113:1434–1445
Yates D, Sieber J, Purkey D, Huber-Lee A (2005a) WEAP21: a demand, priority, and preferencedriven water planning model. Water Int 30(4):487–500
Yates D, Purkey D, Sieber J, Huber-Lee A, Galbraith H (2005b) WEAP21: a demand, priority, and preference-driven water planning model: part 2, aiding freshwater ecosystem service evaluation. Water Int 30(4):501–512
Yates D, Purkey D, Sieber J, Vasquez Lavin F, Guerrero S, Hanemann M (2013) Using economic and other performance measures to evaluate a municipal drought plan. Water Policy 15(4):648–668
Acknowledgments
This work was supported in parts by the California Energy Commission and by Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) funding from Berkeley Lab, provided by the Director, Office of Science, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors would further like to express their gratitude to Joe O’Hagan, Sacramento Municipal Utility District, SEI, Water Forum, and the Regional Water Authority for useful comments and discussions throughout the study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
ESM 1
(XLSX 18 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dale, L.L., Karali, N., Millstein, D. et al. An integrated assessment of water-energy and climate change in sacramento, california: how strong is the nexus?. Climatic Change 132, 223–235 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1370-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1370-x