Abstract
In the future, a significant proportion of Northern forests may become intensively managed through the planting of monospecific stands of native or introduced trees, and the use of multiple silvicultural treatments such as forest fertilization. Such an intensification of management in selected parts of the landscape is suggested by different zoning models, for example the Triad approach, which is under evaluation in some regions of North America. In this study, based on Fennoscandian conditions, we predicted landscape-scale extinction risks of five hypothetical model insect species dependent on fresh dead wood from Norway spruce (Picea abies), by simulating colonizations and local extinctions in forest stands. Intensified forestry applied to 50% of the spruce stands led to strongly increased extinction risks of all species during the following 150 years. For one species—the sun-exposure specialist—there were strong effects already after 50 years. The negative effects of intensive plantation forestry could be compensated for by taking greater biodiversity conservation measures in other managed forests or by setting aside more forests. This is consistent with the Triad model, which is according to our analyzes an effective way to decrease extinction risks, especially for the short-dispersing species and the species associated with closed forest. A zoning of forest land into intensive forestry, conventional forestry, and set asides may be better at combining increased timber production and maintenance of biodiversity in comparison to landscapes where all production forests are managed in the same way.
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Acknowledgments
This study was financed by the “MINT-project” which was a commission from the Swedish Government (Jo 2008/1885) to SLU, and Future Forests, a multidisciplinary research programme supported by the Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA), the Swedish Forestry Industry, the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Umeå University, and the Forestry Research Institute of Sweden.
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Appendix
Appendix
Outcome from the sensitivity analyzes. Four variants of the normal species (see main text) are modeled, representing different ranges of variation of the local extinction risk according to the local amount of dead wood. The bar diagrams show the predicted extinction risk for species at a landscape level 250 years into the future in relation to the proportion of intensively managed stands. “No compensation” implies that no compensation efforts were conducted, and consequently the mean volume of dead wood at the landscape level varies among the scenarios. “Management” implies that a constant dead wood volume was maintained through increased conservation concern in all conventionally managed forest, and “Set asides” implies that a constant landscape-scale dead wood volume was maintained by setting aside a larger proportion of forest for free development (Fig. 4).
Extinction risk for a species with a local extinction varying between 10 and 50% (i.e. the “normal” species)
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Ranius, T., Roberge, JM. Effects of intensified forestry on the landscape-scale extinction risk of dead wood dependent species. Biodivers Conserv 20, 2867–2882 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-011-0143-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-011-0143-8