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Quantitative risk analysis for landslides: the case of the Three Gorges area, China

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was the analysis of life and property risks due to landslides in the Three Gorges area, China. A landslide susceptibility map was created using rough set theory and a support vector machine model. A scenario based on the past landslide frequency and magnitude was used to convert the susceptibility into quantitative hazard maps. The vulnerability was defined quantitatively as a function of landslide intensity and the resistance of at-risk elements. The elements at risk (population, buildings, lifeline engineering, and land resources) were extracted from color aerial photographs, and detailed information regarding these elements was collected via fieldwork. Reconstruction-cost and market-cost approaches were used to estimate the value of property. Quantitative risk maps were developed by integrating the value of the at-risk elements with the vulnerability and landslide hazard datasets. The resulting maps are presented on a continuous scale in which the numerical values indicate the distribution of risk, including the probability of expected economic losses in renminbi (RMB) and loss of lives per map unit for property and residents, respectively. Based on the final risk maps, it is clear that high-risk areas are located in Badong County and other towns and with transportation networks and urbanized areas with dense populations and high property values. Areas of moderate risk were primarily distributed in rural areas and cultivated lands. In addition, the maps show the low-level probability of expected losses in areas where landslide hazard control measures are present or where human activity is sparse, such as unutilized areas and forests. The resulting risk values involve uncertainties and are not precise predictions of future losses, but they may nevertheless help in identifying areas where damage is likely to be greater and where mitigation measures are warranted.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (Grant 2014M560103), the National Program on Key Basic Research Project (Grant 2011CB710601), and the National High-tech R&D Program of China (Grant 2012AA121303). We are grateful to the Headquarters for the Prevention and Control of Geo-hazards in the TGR area for providing data and material. We also thank the editor and anonymous referees for their comments and contributions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. China University of Geosciences, 29A Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, People’s Republic of China

    Ling Peng & Junhuan Peng

  2. China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, 20A Dahuisi Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, People’s Republic of China

    Ling Peng, Suning Xu & Jinwu Hou

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  1. Ling Peng
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Correspondence to Ling Peng.

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Peng, L., Xu, S., Hou, J. et al. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides: the case of the Three Gorges area, China. Landslides 12, 943–960 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0518-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0518-5

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