Abstract
Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961–2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months’ extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander, L. V., and Coauthors, 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290.
Barnett, D. N., S. J. Brown, J.M. Murphy, D. M. H. Sexton, and M. J. Webb, 2006: Quantifying uncertainty in changes in extreme event frequency in response to doubled CO2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations. Climate Dyn., 26, 489–511.
Bell, J. L., L. C. Sloan, and M. A. Snyder, 2004: Regional changes in extreme climatic events: a future climate scenario. J. Climate, 17, 81–87.
Boo, K., W. Kwon, and H. Baek, 2006: Change of extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Korea using regional prejection of future climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01701, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023378.
Brunetti, M., M. Maurizio, and N. Teresa, 2001: Changes in total precipitation, rainy days and extreme events in northeastern Italy. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 861–871.
Chi, Y. Z., J. H. He, and Z. W. Wu, 2005: Features analysis of the different precipitation periods in the pre-flood season in South China. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 28, 163–171. (in Chinese)
Cubasch, U., and Coauthors, 2001: Projections of future climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Kim et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 525–582.
Emori, S., and S. J. Brown, 2005: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023272.
Frei, C., and C. Schär, 2001: Detection probability of trends in rare events: Theory and application to heavy precipitation in the Alpine region. J. Climate, 14, 1568–1584.
Frich, P., L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. M. G. Klein Tank, and T. Peterson, 2002: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, 19, 193–212.
Gao, X. J., and Z. C. Zhao, 2002: Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 19, 927–942.
Gao, X. J., J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi, 2006: Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03706, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024954.
Gong, D. Y., and S. W. Wang, 2000: Severe summer rainfall in China associated with the enhanced global warming. Climate Research, 16, 51–59.
Haylock, M., and N. Neville, 2000: Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910–1998. International Journal of Climatolog, 20, 1533–1541.
Hirsch, R. M., J. R. Slack, and R. A. Smith, 1982: Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour. Res., 18, 107–121.
Karl, T. R., R. W. Knight, D. R. Easterling, and R.-G. Quayle, 1996: Indices of climate change for the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 279–292.
Karl, T. R., and R. W. Knight, 1998: Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 231–241.
Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2005: Estimating extremes in the transient climate change simulations. J. Climate, 18, 1156–1173.
Liu, C. Z., H. J. Wang, and D. B. Jiang, 2004: The configurable relationships between summer monsoon and precipitation over East Asia. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 700–712. (in Chinese)
Ma, H., and Q. Q. Wang, 2006: Spatial and temporal variations in Pre-summer flood period precipitation of South China. Plateau Meteorology, 25, 325–329. (in Chinese)
Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and C. Tebaldi, 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023680.
Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Global climate projection. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 748–845.
Ning, L., and Y. F. Qian, 2006: Oscillatory characteristics of sensible heat in North Africa and the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on the rainfall in East China. Plateau Meteorology, 25, 357–365. (in Chinese)
Qian, Y. F., Y. Zhang, J. Jiang, Y. H. Yao, and Z. F. Xu, 2005: The earliest onset areas and mechanism of the tropical Asian Summer Monsoon. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 19, 129–142.
Räisänen, J., 2005: Impact of increasing CO2 on monthlyto-annual precipitation extremes: Analysis of the CMIP2 experiments. Climate Dyn., 24, 309–323.
Rasul, G., Q. Chaudhry, S. X. Zhao, Q. C. Zeng, L. L. Qi, and G. Y. Zhang, 2005: A diagnostic study of heavy rainfall in Karachi due to merging of a mesoscale low and a diffused tropical depression during South Asia Summer Monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 375–391.
Schmidli, J., and C. Frei, 2005: Trends of heavy precipitation and wet and dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th century. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 753–771.
Simmonds, I., D. H. Bi, and P. Hope, 1999: Atmospheric water vapor flux and its association with rainfall over China in summer. J. Climate, 12, 1353–1367.
Tang, Y. B., J. J. Gan, L. Zhao, and K. Gao, 2006: On the climatology of persistent heavy rainfall events in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 23(5), 678–692, doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0678-x.
Trenberth, K. E., 1999: Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change. Climatic Change, 42, 327–339.
Wang, Y. Q., and L. Zhou, 2005: Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961–2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L09707, doi: 10.10292005GL022574.
Wei, F. Y., 1999: Mann Kendall tests. Modern Climate Statistics and Prediction, China Meteorological Press, 69–72. (in Chinese)
Weng, H. Y., A. Sumi, Y. N. Takayabu, M. Minoto, and C. Y. Li, 2004: Interannual-interdecadal variation in large-scale atmospheric circulation and extremely wet and dry summers in China/Japan during 1951–2000, Part II: Dominant timescales. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 789–804.
Wilby, R. L., and T. M. L. Wigley, 2002: Future changes in the distribution of daily precipitation totals across North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(7), 1135, doi: 10.1029/2001GL013048.
Xiong, Z., S. Y. Wang, Z. M. Zeng, and C. B. Fu, 2003: Analysis of simulated heavy rain over the Yangtze River valley during 11–30 June 1998 using RIEMs. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20, 815–824.
Zhai, P. M., X. B. Zhang, H. Wang, and X. H. Pan, 2005: Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J. Climate, 18, 1096–1108.
Zhao, D. M., B. K. Su, and M. Zhao, 2006: Soil moisture retrieval from satellite images and its application to heavy rainfall simulation in Eastern China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 23(2), 299–316, doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0299-4.
Zolina, O., S. Clemens, A. Kapala, and S. Gulev, 2005: On the robustness of the estimates of centennial-scale variability in heavy precipitation from station data over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14707, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023231.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ning, L., Qian, Y. Interdecadal change in extreme precipitation over South China and its mechanism. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 26, 109–118 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-0109-x
Received:
Revised:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-0109-x