Bounds & Likelihood Procedure Revisited

In an experiment subjects are asked to predict the next value of an univariate time series on the basis of the past observations. The average forecasts of the subjects can be well described by a surprisingly simple rule, which is called the “Bounds and Likelihood procedure”(Becker/Leopold 1996). In a new series of the experiment, conducted 2002 in Graz with 72 participants, the behaviour and score of the subjects is further analysed with the Selective Attention Test (subset of D2, Brickenkamp 1962) and Intelligence Test for Reasoning (subset of PSB, Horn 1969).

Authors and Affiliations

1. Alfred Weber Institut, Grabengasse, D-69117, Heidelberg

   O. Becker

2. Institut für Statistik und OR, Universitat Graz, Universitätsstrasse 15, A-8010, Graz

   J. Leitner, U. Leopold-Wildburger & J. H. Schuetze

Editors and Affiliations

1. Institut für Statistik und Operations Research, Universität Graz, Universitätsstraße 15/E3, 8010, Graz, Austria

   Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger

2. Institut für Mathematik, Universität Klagenfurt, 9020, Klagenfurt, Austria

   Franz Rendl

3. Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften BWL VIII: Management Science, Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, 39016, Postfach 4120, Magdeburg, Germany

   Gerhard Wäscher

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