Design Smart Living Scenario Through Future Research Tools

Based on theoretical research, this article applies theoretical research on futurology to the practice of designing the future. Integrate existing theoretical tools on futurology through a modelled thinking process. We are trying to build a design model, which is a tool for the transformation between futuristic theoretical research and designing actual future scenarios. Through the integration of theoretical methods and traditional design tools, it can help us create more possibilities for future scenarios.

Futurology explores the development prospects of future society. Through research, everyone pays more attention to the prospects and conflicts of possible future development. Design involves intelligence, economics, culture and other aspects, and constantly enters the core of society. A preliminary exploration of the futurology of design can allow more people to stand in the perspective of futurology, look back to the present, and identify design development opportunities. First, we sorted out previous scholars’ research on futurology and smart cities.

Futurology was first proposed and used by the German scholar Ossip Flechtheim in the 1940s [1]. It explores the prospects for the future development of science and technology and society, and reveals the possibility of moving towards the future in accordance with various choices made by humans.

Zhang Shaohong proposed the connection between three worlds and three dialectics [2]. The three worlds are the unknown world, the essential world, and the future world. They correspond to three dialectics, namely, dialectics of discovery, dialectics of reproduction, and dialectics of practice. Together, they constitute the methodology of futurology. In the future, we must study the past and the present. Only by knowing the past can we predict the future.

Han Jingxian and Xu Yunpeng introduced the main ideas of the three books of Toffler’s “Future Shock”, “The Third Wave” and “Transfer of Rights” [1]. The three books analyzed the thoughts of the information society on people’s understanding of the world in a progressive narrative mode Impact. He proposed that while exploring the future, research should be deeply rooted in history, and the future should be considered based on history. Therefore, we must follow a certain theoretical method for future research and can’t be described in fantasy.

Sohail Inayatullah proposed the Causal layered analysis (CLA) in 1993. CLA is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures [3]. He mainly focuses on the vertical level of future research. It consists of four levels: the litany, systemic causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor.

Chris Riedy explored the theoretical and conceptual differences between Integral Futures work and CLA in 2007 [4]. His purpose is to determine whether the theory behind CLA is consistent with Integral Theory and how CLA relates to Integral Futures work. He compared the two theories. The starting point of these two theories is the same. They are both understand development as a process that brings greater depth and both use depth as the basis for judging which perspectives are more valid. But when establishing the level of stratification, they made a difference.

Integration theory is more comprehensive. It has four quadrants: behavioral quadrant, systemic quadrant, cultural quadrant, and psychological quadrant. But the four levels of CLA are mainly focused on the cultural quadrant. the psychological perspective is ignored. Therefore, CLA as an integration theory is not very complete. In the future, we can develop a more complete CLA and go deeper into each quadrant level to deepen the understanding of reality at each level.

Sohail Inayatullah further considered and summarized futuristic research methods based on the previously studied Causal layered analysis (CLA) in 2008 [5]. He proposed six basic concepts of futures thinking, the six basic futures questions, and the six pillars of futures studies. Through a more systematic and comprehensive summary, he presented the futuristic research with more possibilities. As he said, “Futures thinking does not wish to condemn us to hope alone.”

These theories provide important theoretical support for our research. In addition to, we have also compiled some researches by other scholars on the vision of future cities;

Wang Ding points out while technology proliferates dramatically in short time, the ‘smart city policy’ is not only superficial, but it also accommodates contesting priorities in each different city faced by very divergent problems [6]. In fact, even though the current development of technology is grown rapidly, the smart city has to demonstrate its own financial value. This is what designers have to consider when designing smart city based on ICT development which requires financial needs. To such a complicated issue, this is really good example to address the ‘real smart city’ how it should be more sensibly designed and what might be a point to be considered.

Louise Mullagh seeks to address how human values can be made manifest within a physical smart city and identify potential effectiveness a visual approach to ‘the value reflection map’(VRM) tool [7]. He fundamentally focused on technology as a component of developing user-centric design methodology into the urban environment. He stresses a co-dependence of relationship between human values and design as it is vital to seek to investigate how consideration of human values could enable designers to question whether introducing new technologies into a space was appropriate and if so, how values might be designed into such technologies.

Based on Sohail Inayatullah’s research methods and other scholars’ theoretical research on futurology, we have conducted a lot of testing and discussion. According to the characteristics of the design discipline, we try to set how to transform futuristic theory into design practice. We designed a set of tool models to design the future, and tested through workshop and other forms.

The design model is divided into three stages:

3.1 The First Stage: Discovery

At this stage we will use three theories about futurology:

The Future Triangle

The Futures Triangle refers to today’s view of the future through three dimensions. The three sides of this triangle represent Pull of the Future, Push of the Present, and Weight of Historical.

Pull of the Future pulls us forward. While there are many images of the future, it can bring social progress through science and technology, or imagine the limits that humans may reach in the future, and whether history will return to its original state and so on. Push of the Present refers to a current trend and driving force. This current trend will affect our thinking about the future. The last one is Weight of Historical, which is an obstacle we couldn’t change. By using this tool, we can have a preliminary understanding of the relationship between the present and the future.

For example, in the future, autonomous driving technology will bring convenience to our lives and increase our efficiency. Now we can find that today many manufacturers of autonomous driving technology are increasing their R&D efforts, and their technology is constantly being improved. But in history, people have doubts about the safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology, and their acceptance is not very high (Fig. 1).

The Future Triangle and the Future Sign

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The Future Sign

The second tool is the Sign of the Future, which has some similarities with the future triangle tool. It also has three dimensions, which are signal, object, and interpretation. Signals are messages from newspapers or news. These signals have a certain amount and visibility. The object indicates that what we see and feel is really happening around us and is an objective fact. Interpretation is an understanding of future trends, biased towards subjective reasoning.

Through the three dimensions of the content, you can analyze these behaviors may have an impact on future development trends. For example, in terms of signal, there is increasing publicity about autonomous driving technology in the news. In terms of object, we can see the increase in private cars causing traffic jams. At the same time, Baidu’s Apollo self-driving cars started testing on the road. Therefore, in terms of interpretation, we can infer that future autonomous driving technology will improve our transportation environment, and sharing autonomous driving will be a development trend (Fig. 2).

The Future State and the Future Wheel

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The Future State

The Future State is a transformation tool that infers the possibility of the future from the current products and technologies. we looked for current apps and products related to smart living, analyzed their technologies and systems, and listed the possibilities that may arise in the future. For example, for future mobility, we first organized existing products and technologies, such as Baidu Apollo. Behind the product is autonomous driving technology. With the continuous development of these technologies, mobile office may be generated, or autonomous driving technology will gradually mature.

The three tools we use to explore the future at this stage are to understand the current state. This is a relatively shallow research.

3.2 The Second Stage: Deepen

At this stage we will use three tools about future design: The Future Wheel, Causal layered analysis (CLA) and Four-Quadrant Mapping. Through the use of these three tools, we will deepen the future based on the previous stage.

The Future Wheel

The Future Wheel seeks to find out the consequences of the current problem from a longer-term perspective. It intends to explore and deduce unexpected results. The circle in the center is the space to write down with the theme of future possibility, and the surrounding circles of the center are to list the effects on it and infer the causes and consequences from it. In this way, we can move from seeing the world as a simple, separated level to seeing the world as a complex and interconnected level. For example, we use this method to discuss the impact of shared autonomous travel in the future, which may reduce air pollution and alleviate traffic congestion. Going further out may save resources, but at the same time, it will have an impact on car sales and test the trust between people.

Causal layered analysis (CLA)

Causal layered analysis (CLA) seeks to unpack, to deepen the future. It includes four levels in the vertical level: the litany, systemic causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor. It is a research method that precisely defines and deconstructs problems.

1. i.

   Litany: It is the official public or media description of an issue. The problem can be exaggerated to form a fear, which can be avoided through proper action, but the solutions used at this level are short-term.

2. ii.

   Systemic Causes: It focuses on the systemic causes of the problem itself, including political, economic, environmental, historical, social, and scientific aspects. Stakeholders will stand on each side to explain the incident.

3. iii.

   Discourse/Worldview: It is a holistic view of the overall situation, how we use our cognition to understand or shape the world. Go beyond the deeper social, historical, and cultural reasons of the parties, redefine the problem, and restructure our perception of the problem.

4. iv.

   Myth/Metaphor:It is the deepest layer, focusing on the deep stories and collective archetypes. It is a subconscious and emotional aspect. As this requires telling a new story, rewiring the brain and building new memories and the individual and collective body.

For example, using CLA for analysis of urban traffic. In the level of litany, we see the problem of traffic congestion and shortage of parking spaces. The possible solution is just to stagger the time to get off work and avoid peak periods.

In the level of systemic causes, we can see that the improvement of living standards has increased the number of private cars, which has caused problems such as environmental pollution and waste of resources. The possible solutions include the development of clean energy and autonomous driving technologies.

At the third level, we look for deeper issues. People’s values may be inherent in thinking that when they buy items, they are considered to own them. At this time, we can promote the sharing economy and appeal users to focus on the service attributes of the product rather than owning the product itself.

At the last level, people always think that as many things and humans as possible are the smartest beings. Then we can create value: robots can do things for humans, goods can be either their own or the best, and the sharing economy can maximize the use of resources (Fig. 3).

Causal layered analysis (CLA) and four-quadrant mapping

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Four-Quadrant Mapping

This tool can be considered as a supplement to CLA. It involves a wider range of aspects. We need to consider the relationship between internal, external, individual and collective.

There will be a total of four quadrants here. The first quadrant is the individual interior perspective, it is also a psychological quadrant, which is the realm of the self, consciousness, personal experiences and values. The second is the individual exterior perspective, which is the behavior we do, similar to the first level of CLA. The third is the collective exterior perspective, which is the system strategy adopted by the organization. It is similar to the second level of the CLA. The last quadrant is the collective interior perspective, which is a cultural-oriented thinking, similar to the last two levels of CLA.

Comparing the CLA and four-quadrant mapping, we can find that the four-quadrant mapping considers the psychological quadrant, but CLA does not consider it. The combination of these two methods will make our second deepening stage more comprehensive.

For example, when we mentioned shared autonomous driving as an example. In addition to the three aspects covered by CLA, the interior level of the individual is equal to the level of the psychological. We also need to think about the user’s acceptance of autonomous driving, including issues such as safety and accuracy, as well as issues such as trust between people in a shared environment.

The successive use of these three tools makes our exploration of the future more comprehensive, and the aspects and areas involved also have a certain depth and credibility. The analysis from the surface to the deeper layer laid a solid foundation for our next stage of design.

3.3 The Third Stage: Transform

The third stage is the Transform Stage. At this stage, we will use design tools we are familiar with, such as User Journey Maps, Service Blueprints, or Storyboards. These tools are used to show our vision of future scenarios.

User Journey Map

User Journey Map is a common design tool. Through observation and research, draw the user’s existing journey. However, at this stage, we use the tool to draw what the future journey will look like. Through the first two stages, we have sorted out the current problems and propose solutions. At this stage, we use this method to express.

As shown in the figure, in the future journey, our lives will be smarter. Shared autonomous driving makes people travel more efficiently. Of course, the journey in the future will not be entirely happy. When the intelligence of everything becomes higher, it will also make people feel lonely (Fig. 4).

User Journey Map and Service Blueprint

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Service Blueprint

The Service Blueprint is also a familiar design expression tool. We use the service blueprint to describe the entire system of future scenarios. Including customer journey, frontstage technology, backstage actions, support processes, etc.

Storyboard

The tool of the Storyboard is a choice of presentation method. After we have drawn the future service blueprint, we can express it in the form of a story, so that readers can better understand it. Of course, in addition to using the storyboard, you can also use tools such as role-playing to demonstrate.

By now, we have completed the tasks of the transformation stage, and the three phases of the entire design model have been completed. Through the above three stages, from the initial discovery stage to the deepening stage, and then the theory to the design stage, showing our vision of the future. This model can help us to translate theoretical research into design, and create more possibilities for future scenarios. We drew the whole process of design research in the diagram below to make it easier for everyone to understand (Fig. 5).

The whole flow of our tool model

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In the next part, we will introduce the results of each step of our entire experimental process, so that readers can clearly feel the role of our tools.

Smart cities are defined along with six dimensions. Smart economy, smart mobility, smart governance, smart environment, smart living and smart people. To validate these research methods and predict our plausible future life, inspired by present user scenario, smart living is chosen among six dimensions.

4.1 Future Triangle

Pull of future: At home, you can enjoy convenient one-to-one medical service without going to the hospital to register and see a doctor. 24-h intelligent security monitoring, control every corner of the home anytime and anywhere and could ensure the safety of family and pets from hidden dangers. In addition to all linked home furnishings, the increase in individual computing performance can also perform more tasks with energy saving. There are a large number of applications and highspeed networks, making humans more and more capable of acquiring information.

Push of the present: Medical resources are tense, medical trends are digitized and online appointments and consultations are made on the Internet. For this, the network speed is improved, and real-time remote security monitoring is gradually mature. The birth of AI speech recognition technology had begun with machine learning which was successfully applied to issues in industry and the application of powerful computer algorithms through acoustic and linguistic modeling. It can be used in homes and businesses, allowing users to speak on the computer and convert words into text through word processing and speech recognition.

Weight of history: Fundamentally, there are four steps when patients get diagnosis of a professional in china. “Look, smell, ask, cut” which represents that we hope to observe the patient’s physical condition, such as face color, patient’s voice, cough, smell in one’s mouth or body for any odor and ask patient about their symptoms in person. Therefore, face to face diagnosis and treatment make patients feel reassured. People prefer emotional and humanized equipment and products to cold impersonal technology. High-tech networks and smart device systems are packed with electronic sensors that track and respond to the movements of residents and are artificially changing the social habits and movements that have been rooted for hundreds of years, creating a uniform pattern.

4.2 Future Sign

Signal: Businesses take smart life as their selling point, and put the advertising of smart technology plus home in a prominent position. They, for example, began to invest a lot of cost to produce and promote a variety of intelligent furniture products. On the other hand, in the medical fields, people can get a medical checkup themselves by using medical smart kits instantly at home.

Issue: “Google Ngram Viewer” shows how often words related to ‘smart living’ are mentioned in English books, and the graph for ‘smart living’ is rising. Therefore, we can see how dominant the word ‘smart living’ is in the recent trend. Home products with intelligent technology can be easily seen in the store and physical E-commerce. More and more people choose to buy smart furniture such as AI speaker that play songs and tell user the expected weather.

Interpretation: All household devices are connected and have self-judgement abilities. The reasons for purchasing smart furniture may change from display trend and function trend to emotion trend. Thus, people seek more emotional and humanized interaction with household equipment. Thanks to smart self - medical checkup equipment which is simply used, we can save our time and check our body data instead of getting medical information from doctors. Therefore, we might don’t need any medical expert in the future. However, people are too dependent on smart devices and systems for living space, which arouses criticism that what human do is no longer. Furthermore, along with the development of smart cities filled with complex systems, political and policy aspects such as the new social regulation policy should be developed as well.

4.3 Future State

Let us start by smart living’s future state diagram in our discovery stages. Here we categorized living into two parts: health/balance and security. Based on researching smart products and applications which are now in its stages of commercialization, we inspected in detail that which technologies are used in current application and make us place into smart living (third layer). We found that, for example, voice recognition and differentiation via biometric technology is applied to ‘Pria’ product; smart personal medication assistant. An important part of this diagram is the fourth layer. That is, biometric technology can have an effect on possibility of voice-based personal predictive health analysis product in the future living (Fig. 6).

Two parts [health and security] of future state diagram

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4.4 Future Wheel

These future wheels map the consequences of medical issue if voice is used as diagnostic and medical tools and implication of upgraded IoT security (Fig. 7).

Future wheel of [healthy] and [security]

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For example, for using personal smart medication assistant, characteristics of user’s voice should be classified. As voice can reveal information of patient’s health, vocal biomarker is created… As well, track vital signs both mental and physical conditions are diagnosed 24 h a day. After recording medical information, provide digitalized and objective those data and transmit to both caregivers and patients by smart phone. Voice-based medical technology companies increase and they develop new voice software algorithms. At the same time, new national health insurance and policy are needed.

Another example, we anticipated that upgraded IoT security might influence data security systems and super-tech urban infrastructure-built. Moreover, security is ensured so that multiple applications can be converged, and this new form of integration forms the results of the face recognition algorithm for a strong security system. Still, though security system is upgraded and “Managed Security Services (MSS)” market is increased, as digital automatic transaction between parties is continue to increase, in fact, it undoubtedly makes to increase the likelihood of exposure to cybercrime. Hence new collaboration with national cyber security agencies can combat the rapid increase in cybercrimes .

4.5 Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Litany problems are often loneliness, crime in life and AI technology still has a long way to go. Solutions focus on revolutions of home security technology and are to form both virtual and reality community. Systemic solutions are to provide new future career and extend the terms of employment. In addition, ensuring legal and ethical technology frameworks could be long-term strategy. Policy strategy can be deeper. For example, New national technology policy by government need to be redefined (Table 1).

At the worldview level, we see the issue of smart living may be: sustainable development, instead of undermining stability of the natural system and resources, can enhance energy efficiency. It can include pursuing eco-friendly residential construction design, using green materials. Create equal opportunity to ensure healthy society without affecting quality of smart living in negative aspects. At the myth and metaphor level, the pursuit of value of residents in smart cities can be metaphorized as ‘high quality snail life’. In place of inhuman contained in productivity, efficiency, competition, speed and affluence, which are the ideological characteristics of modern society, it is a way of smart life that seeks a harmonious life between nature and human beings. At the same time, quality life that meets human needs.

4.6 A Four-Quadrant Map

Four-quadrant mapping is important as CLA. The upper-left is the inner-individual – this is psychological quadrant which is what we find people’s own interior emotions and thoughts. For instance, people are content with good quality of living that reduces energy and maximizes the use of reusable and recycled materials. Similarly, people feel convenient when they use smart appliance at home. In contrast, they feel depressed by solitary pastime and chronic diseases. The upper-right is the external-individual - the behavior people engage in as they are blessed with smart living situation. For example, they get medical checkup conveniently themselves and health care by smart medical devices at home. Also, they seek green roof for sustainable smart living. Purchasing AI robot as a friend helps not to feel depressed.

The lower-left is that developing intelligent of human life style and let resident be able to choose diversity of residential style. Additionally, pursue eco-friendly of residential design. The last – enhance the concept of sustainable development and develop networking technology are the strategy official organization have to take into account (Table 2).

4.7 Blueprint

See Fig. 8

Future service blueprint in smart living.

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Stanford d. school ‘human cities expo’ is program in which Stanford students and Beijing Tsinghua University students present innovative approaches to urban planning and solve problems in the modern world. We were grateful to be involved this program. The expo, which took place in December 2019, was announced by students to plan a human-centered and sustainable city, with an interdisciplinary program that not only allows future cities to work and live comfortably for people, but also to become smart places where they can thrive and connect with each other. To this end, first, students conducted interviews and analyzed the data with deep insight to identify the serious urban problems currently underway. Then, they suggested, for instance, urban regeneration through community engagement and design of community landscape furniture as solutions. In the next breath, we then shared our research in ‘smart cities, vision future’ chapter. We have successfully introduced our scenarios of future smart living and smart people, including those on technical solutions (service blueprint), as whole of academic studies.

In summary, through the research and arrangement of the process, we have established the use of the tool model. There are three stages, the first stage is observing, the second stage is deepening, and the third stage is transforming. Through the use of different tools at each stage, progressing from the external surface to the interior, we could help us suggest the possibility of future smart living scenarios.

Of course, these tools not only could be used to comprehend current smart living scenario and to how technology affects future state of smart living, but also be applied to six dimensions such as smart education and smart governance, as mentioned in section [validation example]. Therefore, in the course and other environments, we tested the tool model in different scenarios, and verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the tool through tests.

Although the current speed of technology development is grown rapidly, since smart city is so obscure and superficial that when designers, policy makers, and other stakeholders arrange smart city plan, they could face very divergent problems. This tool model would help them identify opportunities and vulnerabilities of smart city plans, discovering potential improvements and eliminating each redundant part. In the future, we hope that this tool model can be more detailed and applied to more aspects about future scenarios.