Creature — Dog

& btw if you want to happify me this holidays 👇

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capnsoapy

Here is a hypothetical scenario:

The NHS develops a new piece of software which can analyse the public and– using a combination of image recognition, medical history, geographic data, and machine learning– determine if a person has undiagnosed appendiceal cancer.

Via randomised control trialing they determine that the software is 99% accurate, and so run it on the entire British population and offer treatment to all positive cases before the cancers develop.

What percentage of those diagnosed will have actually had cancer?

More than 99%

Exactly 99%

Between 99% and 95%

Between 95% and 90%

Between 90% and 75%

Between 75% and 50%

Between 50% and 25%

Between 25% and 10%

Between 10% and 5%

Between 5% and 1%

Exactly 1%

Less than 1%

For reference, the British population is ≈70 million, and appendiceal cancer is found in ≈20 people per million.

capnsoapy

The correct answer is 0.2% (congratulations to the plurality).

There are several explanations as to why in the notes but the gist is: when only 0.002% of cases are positive, a 1% error rate is hugely significant despite how “99% accurate” intuitively feels synonymous with “almost perfect”. How “big” or “small” a number is is entirely dependent on context.

todaysbird

had a dream last night where i bought a hawk at a flea market for $20. when i pointed out that 1. i don't have a space for a hawk in my apartment 2. i don't want a hawk my roommates were like "bro its $20....get ittttttt or you're so gonna regret not buying that hawk"

“There are these great big flowers called bromeliads, and water gets into the flowers and makes little pools and there’s a type of frog that lays eggs in the pools and tadpoles hatch and grow into new frogs and these little frogs live their whole lives in the flowers right at the top of the trees and don’t even know about the ground, and once you know the world is full of things like that your life is never the same.”

One frog lost its way and crawled around the side of one of the outermost petal, and saw something it had never seen before. It saw the universe.

“We never stop to learn enough about where we are before we go somewhere else. And I can’t go back. I can’t even stop. So that’s what she meant about the frogs. Once you know things, you’re a different person. You can’t help it.”

gnu terry pratchett

ouroborosorder

honestly I hate “can you pet the dog?!?” not for any of the common reasons but because it was initially interesting as a proposition of “can you interact with the world in a way that is not within the primary mechanical loop” and that very quickly fell away to being “well now any indie developer making a game has to have a pet the dog button or they’re going to get letters”

ouroborosorder

One of my dream projects has an NPC with a dog, and if you try to pet it, the owner tells you not to do that. If you try again, it bites you and you take damage. I want to do this entirely because I genuinely believe that this would make me feel way more grounded in the world than any “click button to see cute animation” would ever do, and also it would be really funny to have a game where people lose their runs because they tried to pet a dog they were told not to pet

djnusagi

so ur at the party right and there’s this girl in the corner with another girl on a leash with the puppy ears on standard stuff and u start talking to her and she introduces the girl on the leash and says “this is my little puppy, Emily. say hi Emily” and the leash girl does a little bark at u and u say “oh that’s nice” and ur looking for a way to avoid the awkward silence during a 4 second period that feels like a half hour so u ask “does she know any tricks?” so the girl says “come on girl, show ‘em” and the puppy girl gets up pulls out a skateboard and starts doing the sickest kick flips u ever saw

Anonymous asked:

bro shut up you sound so fucking pretentious. People aren't shallower or lesser then you for liking things that make them happy. Get off your wierd high horse . Yuck.

You are so insecure in who you are that somebody not sharing your mentality leads to hate. You are so imprisoned by the thoughts of others that you have fallen in love with the bars.

answered anonymous