AaronGleeman.com

--- Fredo Corleone, "The Godfather, Part II"

When it comes to baseball predictions, we all have a little bit of Fredo in us.

We've all been following the off-season signings and trades and injuries and we think that we know stuff about the upcoming season - we think that we're smart!

And personally, I know I love to get credit (and respect!) when I make a (rare) correct prediction.

In the short time I have been running this little website (since August), we have established a nice little "community" of readers here.

This blog is currently pulling in between 400-500 hits per weekday and February, despite being only 28 days long, was the biggest month yet, with approximately 10,000 visitors.

So, I figure now we've got enough people to have our first contest!

Here's how it works:

1) You predict the standings of all 6 MLB divisions.

2) You predict the World Series participants.

3) You predict the World Champions.

4) You predict the winners of all 6 major awards (3 in each league).

5) You predict "over" or "under" for 6 questions involving Barry Bonds.

Pretty easy, right?

This contest should separate the men from the Fredos and it'll be a lot of fun too.

Here's how we determine the winner:

1) You predict the standings of all 6 MLB divisions.

Basically, all you need to do here is pick which team will finish first in each division, which team will finish second, finish third and so on.

Each of the 30 Major League teams starts out with a "value" of 50 points.

If you correctly predict their final place in the division standings, you receive the full 50 points.

For every spot they end up different that your prediction for them, you lose 10 points.

For example: The Yankees start with 50 points. If you predict that they'll finish 1st in the AL East and they actually finish 3rd, you receive a total of 30 points (50-20).

The maximum point total you can get for the division standings portion of the contest is 1,500 points (50 points x 30 teams).

2) You predict the World Series participants.

Very simple, just say who will win the American League championship and the National League championship.

You get 25 points for each World Series participant you correctly predict.

So, if you predict Tampa Bay and Milwaukee will play in the World Series and it ends up being Tampa Bay and Colorado, you would get 25 points for picking 1 participant (Tampa).

If neither Tampa or Milwaukee made it, you'd get 0 points.

3) You predict the World Champions.

Extraordinarily simple, just predict who will win it all come October.

You get 25 points for correctly predicting the World Champions.

4) You predict the winners of all 6 major awards (3 in each league).

There are 6 "major" awards: 2 Most Valuable Players, 2 Cy Youngs and 2 Rookie-of-the-Years.

For each of the 6 that you predict correctly you receive 10 points.

If there is a tie for an award, both players will be "worth" 10 points to those that predicted they would win it; meaning if you predict Neifi Perez will win the NL MVP and he ties with Mike Matheny for the award, you would still get the 10 points - as would anyone that predicted Matheny would win it.

5) You predict "over" or "under" for 6 questions involving Barry Bonds.

All you have to do here is say whether or not Bonds will go "over" or "under" the number specified.

The 6 questions are:

1) Barry Bonds home runs OVER/UNDER 50?

2) Barry Bonds on-base % OVER/UNDER .500?

3) Barry Bonds runs batted in OVER/UNDER 120?

4) Barry Bonds batting average OVER/UNDER .330?

5) Barry Bonds total walks OVER/UNDER 150?

6) Barry Bonds slugging % OVER/UNDER .750?

In case he hits a number right on the nose, everyone gets credit for predicting correctly.

That's a long shot though, so don't worry.

For each of the 6 Bonds questions that you predict correctly, you get 10 points - for a total of 60 possible.

Adding it all up...

The maximum point total for this contest is 1,695 points.

That would include correctly predicting the exact order of finish for all 30 MLB teams, correctly predicting the AL and NL Champions and the World Series Champions, as well as the winners of all 6 of the major awards and the OVER/UNDER on all of Bonds' stats.

And what exactly are we playing for?

Well...

I am not exactly a rich man, but I figure we definitely need some sort of a prize and what better prize than an excellent baseball book.

The winner of the 1st Annual Aaron's Baseball Blog Pre-Season Predictions Contest will receive their choice of a brand spanking new copy of 1 of the following books:

"Ball Four" - by Jim Bouton

"Ball Four" is my favorite book in the entire world. I have read it at least a half dozen times and I plan on reading it about 100 more times before all is said and done.

If you haven't read it, you are missing out in a huge way. I don't know what else to say other than it is absolutely, without a doubt, the best and most entertaining book I have ever read (and read and read and read and...).

"Sandy Koufax: A Lefty's Legacy" - by Jane Leavy

This is a relatively new book and one I got for my birthday from my grandparents. Koufax is obviously one of the most interesting and intriguing players in baseball history and this book is a really good one. I'm currently in the middle of reading it.

"Hitter: The Life and Turmoils of Ted Williams" - by Ed Linn

Quite simply the biography of my favorite baseball player of all-time.

Ted Williams was not only a great hitter, he was also a very unique person and this book really does a great job putting forth his life story.

However, more than simply winning an actual prize, the winner of this contest will receive the 1st annual "Fredo Award for Excellence in Predicting" and will be honored on this very website and praised by millions around the world.

At the bottom of this entry I have included a nice, neat little form that you can copy and paste into an email to me, so that entering this contest is as easy as possible.

Just copy the form I have provided, fill in the blanks with your predictions and send it to me.

*****The deadline for entering is March 24th (the day before the season officially begins)*****

If you have any questions, feel free to ask me.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OFFICIAL 1ST ANNUAL AARON'S BASEBALL BLOG PRE-SEASON PREDICTIONS CONTEST ENTRY FORM:

ENTRANT NAME:

AL EAST:

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

AL CENTRAL:

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

AL WEST:

1)

2)

3)

4)

NL EAST:

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

NL CENTRAL:

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

6)

NL WEST:

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

AL CHAMPS:

NL CHAMPS:

WORLD CHAMPS:

AL MVP:

NL MVP:

AL CY:

NL CY:

AL ROY:

NL ROY:

BONDS OVER/UNDER 50 HOMERS:

BONDS OVER/UNDER .500 OBP:

BONDS OVER/UNDER 120 RBI:

BONDS OVER/UNDER .330 AVG:

BONDS OVER/UNDER 150 WALKS:

BONDS OVER/UNDER .750 SLG: