Conditional Betas

Tano Santos and Pietro Veronesi

No 10413, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Empirical evidence shows that conditional market betas vary substantially over time. Yet, little is known about the source of this variation, either theoretically or empirically. Within a general equilibrium model with multiple assets and a time varying aggregate equity premium, we show that conditional betas depend on (a) the level of the aggregate premium itself; (b) the level of the firm's expected dividend growth; and (c) the firm's fundamental risk, that is, the one pertaining to the covariation of the firm's cash-flows with the aggregate economy. Especially when fundamental risk (c) is strong, the model predicts that market betas should display a large time variation, that their cross-sectional dispersion should be negatively related to the aggregate premium, and that investments in physical capital should be positively related to changes in betas. These predictions find considerable support in the data.

JEL-codes: G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin
Note: AP
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w10413.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10413

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w10413

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().