"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver
Verlander just killed me this year. Photo unk via rumorsandrants.com
My standard disclaimer; this is a whole huge post kvetching about my 2013 Fantasy Baseball team. If you don’t play fantasy, feel free to skip this 3,000 word missive. I’ll insert a “jump” line here so that RSS readers don’t have to see this whole massive post 🙂
Denard Span's "best of 2012" defensive catch, highlighting more of what we can expect in 2013. Photo NYpost.com
I wasn’t expecting much baseball talk in Ask Boswell this week (12/10/12), not with the Redskins on a 4-game winning streak. But there were some significant baseball moves to discuss, and a ton of baseball questions made their way in. So here we go. As always, I read the question and answer before reading Tom Boswell‘s response, and sometimes edit questions for clarity:
Q: I find it hard to imagine any starter of worth will sign with the Nats now that there are five rotation certainties in place. Will the Nats get the starter depth they desire?
A: There is definitely a class of starter out there who absolutely would take a minor league contract with a team like the Nats in order to rehabilitate their FA value, which may have been eroded due to injury or a bad season. Who would sign Erik Bedard (as an example) to anything guaranteed right now? Or Jonathan Sanchez? I would say though that more likely is the team acquiring guys on the minor league free agent market (where there’s 100s of guys available) and trading for farm system depth (I could envision both Michael Morse and Danny Espinosa being moved for prospect depth right now). Boswell didn’t really address this part of the question, instead focusing on the next question.
Q: Why did Rizzo non-tender Gorzelanny, who as the LHP long man could spot start? He has been effective at times, the non-tender now seems like a false economy.
A: Simple econonmics; despite Tom Gorzelanny‘s salary being miniscule in the grand scheme of things, they couldn’t tender him and risk getting an un-acceptable award in arbitration. I posted on the topic ahead of the non-tender deadline. I’m hopeful that Gorzelanny re-signs with the team at something close to his 2012 salary. But, that being said the bullpen looks awfully full right now and there might not be room for him. 5 returning RH relievers, new signing Zach Duke and only one spot left, likely being filled by Bill Bray in a pure LOOGY move. Boswell points out that Duke exactly replicates what Gorzelanny would have given us at a fraction of the price. Enough said.
Q: How do you like the Denard Span acquisition versus Philly’s acquisition of Ben Revere? Should the Nats have acquired Revere instead of Span? Do the Nats have an internal CF option after Span’s contract ends?
A: I posted my opinion on the Span deal here; quick analysis: liked the Denard Span deal but didn’t like that they made it. Now, if I compare the Span to the Revere deals, I can’t help but say that I think Philadelphia overpaid, badly. Trevor May was Philly’s #1 prospect in their system. May for Revere may have been a decent deal (akin to our own Alex Meyer for Span), but throwing in a servicable starter with 46 decent MLB starts under his belt was questionable. It isn’t like Ben Revere is the second coming of Joe DiMaggio; he had a 89 OPS+ last year in his third pro season. Great defense absolutely, but at what cost at the plate? At least Span profiles as a better-than-league-average hitter. The Span contract is for 2 years, by which time the Nats have a slew of potential replacements (in likely order Goodwin, Perez, Hood, Taylor), so yes there’s plenty of rising talent in the system at center. Boswell doubts the talent of Trevor May despite the consensus scouting opinion of the player, but he likes Worley and thinks the Phillies “took a flier on talent.” He does think Span > Revere though.
Q: Have the Nats done enough to their roster to win it all? Do they need another closer?
A: I believe the team has already done enough to re-qualify for the 2013 playoffs, especially in the NL East where Miami and the Mets are reeling, barring a slate of pitching injuries. I can make a legitimate argument (tease for a future post) that the WAR improvements expected from our existing players (Strasburg, Harper, a full season of Werth, etc), plus addition by subtraction for players who hurt us last year (Nady, DeRosa, Henry Rodriguez, etc) alone will result in a better team than 2012. Do we need another closer? No, but I think one more right handed option out of the pen could help. That being said, we don’t really have any 25-man room right now given the anticipated pen. I liked last year’s Brad Lidge signing as a way to get some bullpen help, but doubt the team will do it this year. As far as Drew Storen goes, he’s a top notch reliever and does not need to be replaced. But I could see the team flipping him or Tyler Clippard as they get more expensive. Boswell says the Los Angeles acquisitions change the game, and teams like the Nats may have to re-think their approaches.
Q: What do you think of the Shields trade? Who comes out ahead? Do the Rays have enough pitching to remain AL East contenders, even after trading their No 1 starter?
A: I believe Tampa Bay fleeced Kansas City; Shields was NOT their #1 starter (David PriceJeremy Hellickson) or honestly maybe not even their #3 (Matt Moore, at least on potential). So the Rays traded a mid-rotation starter who they wanted to move anyway, along with a long-man in Wade Davis for the best prospect in the minors right now (Wil Myers), the Royal’s #1 pitching prospect (Jake Odorizzi), another high-end pitching prospect (Mike Montgomery, a former highly regarded arm), and yet another minor league player. That is just frankly ridiculous. If you had told me the trade was simply Myers for both Shields and Davis, I could have squinted and understood. But the addition of the other prospects made this a complete heist for Tampa. You don’t trade the best prospect in the minor leagues for anything less than an ACE starter. Does Tampa have enough to remain AL east contenders? Absolutely yes; this was a trade of spare parts for Tampa (akin to the Nats trading Tyler Moore and Steve Lombardozzi for some other team’s two best prospects) and they didn’t give up anything that they weren’t already planning on replacing. Dayton Moore has gone all in on this move; if the Royals do not win the division in 2013, he’s out of a job. Boswell didn’t really offer an opinion, just saying that the Rays are still stocked and noting that the price in prospects was why the Nats stayed away. Disappointed not to read an opinion on the trade.
Q: Will Harper be hitting cleanup this year and, if so, what’s your thinking on this?
A: Answer: It depends. If the team does NOT re-sign Adam LaRoche, then they have precious little left-handed hitting in the lineup, and Harper will be forced to bat somewhere in the middle of the order. Cleanup may have to be the spot. If LaRoche does come back, then the team can spread out its lefty power and continue with a similar lineup to what they used last year (going Harper-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Werth for L-R-L-R). I certainly don’t think that someone like Harper will have any issues batting clean-up in the major leagues; one thing he’s never been accused of lacking is pride. Boswell agrees with the opinion here, and then talks about just how much respect Harper earned in his rookie season.
Q: Should I be worried about our pitching depth? Our pitching was remarkably healthy this year and if that doesn’t hold true, especially with questions about Haren’s health I am not sure we can assume that will hold true this season. Don’t we need another starter or two who could eat innings if needed?
A: Yes, we have a depth issue. Especially given that we’ve traded nearly an entire AAA team worth of rotation insurance in the last two off-seasons (Milone, Peacock, Meyer, Rosenbaum all traded away or lost to rule 5 in the last two off-seasons). But Dan Haren has been remarkably durable through his career, only missing 28 games in his entire career to injury. So lets temper the whole “Haren is fragile narrative.” He’s not; he just happened to have an injury in 2012. I’m assuming, until proven otherwise, that Haren will return to his previous form and throw 220 innings. Does this mean that we weren’t lucky in 2012 and should plan for someone to get hurt in the rotation? Absolutely. I believe this is why moving either Michael Morse or Danny Espinosa for starter depth is wise. Boswell reminds the reader about Duke’s starting capability and the team’s plans for Christian Garcia. There’s also Ryan Perry. And there’s also the slew of guys who won’t get MLB jobs but who aren’t ready to hang them up who will be there for the taking. You know, guys exactly like Duke was last year 2 days before the start of the season.
Q: Don’t you think that if LaRoche was going to re-sign that he would have by now? If he goes, have the Nat’s alienated Morse?
A: No; the baseball off-season moves slowly, and few moves happen before the Winter Meetings anyway. LaRoche is right on schedule for his negotiations. Now, the team’s overt coveting of LaRoche has to have Morse pissed. I would be; clearly the team is planning for your exit on a day to day basis in the open press. Which is a real shame, because I like Morse and don’t think he did anything to warrant being treated this way. Boswell somehow thinks that this whole dance is a compliment to Morse. I don’t get it.
Q: Rizzo has a 2 year offer on the table for LaRoche, and history says he’s not likely to budge. Moreover, with other options like Morse and Moore, there’s no reason for him to. If another team needed help at 1B and was willing to give LaRoche 3 years, wouldn’t they have done so already? You’ve said all along you see the Nats and LaRoche amicably parting ways. Still see it that way?
A: Rizzo can budge on his demands. Hey; at least it isn’t a four year deal that LaRoche is demanding. I think a 2year deal with a club option for a 3rd makes a lot of sense for the team. For the player, not so much. This is LaRoche’s last chance at the free agent bonanza; he has to get the biggest contract he can. The market for LaRoche won’t completely clear until Josh Hamilton signs. While they’re not apples-to-apples comparisons, they are both lefty power hitters. If a team that wanted Hamilton doesn’t get him, they can come looking for LaRoche to fit a middle of the order lefty bat. The team still needs and wants LaRoche for two main reasons; plus defense and lefty power. They’ll take a step backwards in both categories by going with Morse at first and Moore as first guy off the bench. At the beginning of the off-season I thought LaRoche was leaving, because he’d want (and get) a 4 year deal. Now I think he may be back. Boswell now thinks LaRoche may be back and the team may give a 3rd year.
Q: I realize that the life with LaRoche is much preferred by the Nats. However, do you think there will be much of drop off in the quality of Nats play? Even without him, I have no doubt that the Nats will still win their share of games and make the playoffs (assuming the starting rotation stays relatively healthy). All starters are strike out pitchers. Offensive production should be about eqaul (though not as balanced),and Morse/Moore will probably make a few more errors. I feel like moving Zimmerman to first in 2014 and have Rendon starting at third would be the ideal way to make sure the core stays in tact.
A: I mostly agree; we’ll live without LaRoche but will be righty-heavy. Morse is healthy and has shown 30 homer capabilities in the past; why wouldn’t he do that again in 2013? It is a contract year for him after all. Meanwhile. the “save first base for Ryan Zimmerman” plan is one I’m 100% for; we’re just waiting for Anthony Rendon to show up. Boswell cautions to temper expectations for Rendon, who hasn’t had an injury-free season in years.
Q: Why does Shane Victorino get a 3 year deal before Adam LaRoche?
A: Because the Red Sox made a rash, poor signing? The LaRoche market just hasn’t played out yet. Plus, filling a first baseman versus a corner outfielder is more risky for teams, so they do more due diligence. Boswell doesn’t like the Victorino deal. At all.
Q: Michael Young had the lowest WAR of ANY position player last year, do you really think he’s an upgrade for the Phillies? Personally, I can’t wait for those fans to start booing him 2 weeks into the season.
A: Yes, Michael Young looked pretty bad statistically last year. But i’m guessing that a change of scenery may help him. Texas has spent the past several seasons acquiring players to overtly replace Young; the year after he won a gold glove at short the team asked him to make way for Elvis Andrus and he moved to third. Then the team moved him off of third when they acquired Adrian Beltre. Then the team moved him to first … but then gave most of the starts at first to Mitch Moreland Maybe his 2012 was just pure disappointment in his treatment by the club where he’d played his entire career. I think though that at his age (36 next year) he’ll be lucky to be just replacement level. Boswell states the obvious; the Phillies are hoping for the 2011 version of Young, not the 2012 version.
I swear, I wasn't looking for the obvious pun photo of Prince Fielder eating. Photo: The Onion
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know by now that Prince Fielder is looking for a 9 figure contract, that there doesn’t seem to be a lot of suitors for him, and that he keeps being linked to the Washington Nationals, despite sources saying we’re not interested.
So I thought to myself; what *really* is the market for Fielder right now? Who wants, or more importantly needs, a big-money, big-time hitting, trip-over-his-feet defending at first base Fielder? Here’s each of the 30 teams organized into categories to help get some clarity:
1. Teams that have long-term, major money commitments to established 1B stars, right now.
These teams are absolutely not in the market for Fielder. Team and current 1B:
You could quibble with the selection of Miami as not being in the market; after all they were throwing money at Pujols and have committed something in the range of $165M in heavily back-loaded contracts already this off-season. But I havn’t read a single sentence indicating any interest with Fielder.
You could slightly quibble with Colorado, but if so I’ll say that Colorado also falls into one of the “No” categories below. Read on.
2. Teams that are so bad, right now, that I couldn’t imagine Fielder actually going there
Baltimore. That’s it. Anyone that signs in Baltimore is essentially saying, “I want to play for the worst organization in baseball and guarantee myself 5th place finishes for the entirety of my contract.” Who would possibly go to play there unless they’re a lower-tier FA who wants to guarantee himself a starting job? Such a shame; this was the highest payroll team in the game in the mid 90s. We talk about how Bud Selig needs to take away the Mets … how about forcing Angelos to sell this former jewel franchise to someone who actually wants to see them win?
3. Teams that are aren’t in the market for financial reasons
Obviously the situation with the Dodgers and Mets prevents them from doing such a franchise-altering commitment. Plus both teams have half-way decent options playing at 1B for them now (James Loney and Ike Davis). The Giants were at $118M in 2011 and seem tapped out; they have $84M committed prior to their Arb cases, including a potentially record-setting arbitration case with Tim Lincecum. They’ll easily be above $100M once these cases are said and done. Lastly St. Louis: if they were willing to pay $25M/year, they would have re-signed Pujols. So clearly they’ve reached a financial threshold themselves.
I’d also put Colorado in this category; they aren’t exactly a small-market team but they also don’t seem like they’re in the mood to increase payroll $25M/year.
4. Teams that have waved the white flag and are in 100% rebuilding mode
Both these teams should be obvious just by their mention. Oakland is going to try to field a $20M payroll team, and Houston has bottomed out and clearly is starting over.
5. Teams that have big-name prospects currently installed at 1B and who don’t seem like they’re in the market
Most of these teams could fit into multiple categories. Lots of rumors out there saying that Seattle is a natural landing spot for Fielder but I don’t see it: Smoak is the reason Seattle agreed to trade Cliff Lee, and you don’t just give up on guys like that. Meanwhile Seattle is now miles behind their divisional rivals and may not compete for a decade. Why would Fielder go there?
Meanwhile, the Cubs seem like an interesting case. NL team, NL central team, storied name. But they didn’t hire Theo Epstein to just make the leap; their ownership clearly realized that their franchise was on the downside both at the MLB level and in the farm system. Bad contracts, bad clubhouse. They’re rebuilding for a renewed run in a few year’s time.
6. Small Market teams that certainly don’t seem to be in the market for a $25M/year player
All these teams seem to be pretty self-explanatory. Maybe Arizona gets into the market, but they’ve gone to great pains to lose payroll, paring it down to just $56M last year while somehow winning the division. Their highest paid player in 2011 was just $5.8M. A $25M/year guy doesn’t fit with their team.
So, after all that, Here’s the teams Left: This is the actual Market for Fielder, right now. Teams listed with their current starting 1B
And here’s arguments for and against each team:
In the end though, if Texas signs Darvish I’d think they’d be out of the running. And Toronto hasn’t really shown an inclination to spend Fielder kinds of money, and seem more in a rebuilding phase than a “go for it now” phase.
Which means the Fielder market may be …. just Washington.
What do you think? Are there any teams besides Texas, Toronto and the Nats that are *really* in the conversation? Or is Boras negotiating against himself right now?
Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images North America
As posted by other bloggers today, October 28th 2010, (especially in this post here on the Nationals Enquirer which rather eloquently titles their posting with the obvious consequence of Dunn’s Elias rating), the Nats dodged a huge bullet and will be fully compensated if Adam Dunn decides to leave via free agency (that is well, unless they do the unthinkable and fail to offer him Arbitration). The official Elias Rankings came out and previous estimates on Dunn were slightly low (resulting in panicked posts by yours truly and others about his being a type B free agent and thus making our entire mis-handling of the contract extension even more egregiously bad).
Now, based on the rules of compensation (as explained in the Kilgore’s Nats Journal blog posting today), the first 18 picks of the 2011 draft are protected (usually first 15 but there’s a few compensation picks in there from failed draft picks in 2010). So, IF Dunn is leaving (and the prevaling opinion seems to lean that way despite all realistic arguments against it…), what the Nats now root for is a team in the “bottom” half of the first round to be the signing team. If this happens, we’ll get their 1st rounder AND a supplemental pick. Otherwise we’re looking at the supplemental pick plus the signing team’s 2nd rounder. That’s not nearly as nice of a haul frankly.
The first round draft order for 2011 goes like this, thanks to mlbtraderumors.com
Here’s the thing though; if Dunn is going to leave, then he needs to go to a team that:
a) Needs a first baseman and
b) Is REALISTICALLY in the market for Free Agents in general, and
c) Makes more sense for him to leave the Nationals for. As in, why would he go from one last place team to another, unless the Nats insultingly refuse to offer him anything more than a 2yr deal.
Here’s a quick rundown on NL teams and their 1st basemen situation. We focus first on the NL because of Dunn’s repeated statements that he’s not interested in becoming a full time DH.
So, if he goes anywhere in the NL I think it could be either Atlanta, Chicago or (maybe) San Francisco. Chicago already has some serious payroll issues and an underperforming team but has a ton of cash. SF may not have the payroll flexibility to buy Dunn despite really needing him. Atlanta only has $60M committed next year and has a bunch of arbitration cases … but they’ve spent over $100m on payroll as recently as 2 years ago and may expand it out again.
Adding in AL teams, looking at 1B solutions (I can’t see him signing up for a team that will ONLY DH him, so we have to look at teams where he splits time between 1B and DH).
There’s many more AL options. In various scenarios he could make sense for 5 or 6 AL teams. At least Chicago, Baltimore, Boston, or Toronto. Tampa if they weren’t going cheap.
My personal odds/guesses in order on where Dunn may go:
Lesser possibilities but which could arise.
Now, IF Dunn is absolutely leaving … who are the teams we’d be “rooting” to sign him? Boston is best, but Atlanta or SF would be great too. If he goes to these locations we’d own a mid-20s first rounder plus a supplemental. If he goes to Chicago or Houston, we’re looking at a supplemental and an early 2nd rounder (or worse if these teams decide to sign TWO type-A free agents and the other is higher ranked than Dunn. Under this scenario we’d get a supp-1st and the signing team’s 2nd rounder. Not good).
So, the entire principle behind NOT signing Adam Dunn during the summer was the 2 draft picks we would acquire (the signing team’s 1st pick and a supplimental) after he declines our arbitration offer.
Check out this link at mlbtraderumors.com. If this site is correct, and the analysis is accurate, then Dunn has fallen just below the threshold and is now a Type B Free Agent.
From a Nats standpoint, this is an unmitigated Disaster. Now not only is there more incentive for other teams to sign him,there’s even LESS incentive for him to take a deal from us. And, we’ll get merely a supplimental 1st pick.
Unless the entire 2010 season was just a charade and we plan on signing him anyway. Per Boswell there’s a 3-year deal on the table now. But if you’re Dunn, you HAVE to see what is out there right now, right?
Assuming that he does not consider AL teams, as he has stated he wants to continue to play the field, here’s a quick rundown on NL teams and their 1st basemen situation:
NY: Ike Davis; up and coming prospect
PHI: Ryan Howard: long term contract
Fla: Gaby Sanchez (doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers)
Atl: Derrick Lee, who is a FA. Troy Glaus also a FA but was awful this year. Could be a buyer.
Stl: Pujols
mil: Prince Fielder
Cincy: Joey Votto
Chi; it was Derrick Lee til they traded him. Possible FA buyers.
Hou; it was Lance Berkman til they traded him. But are they FA buyers? I don’t think so.
Pitt: Garrett Jones (doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers)
LA: James Loney: cost contained and home grown. plus no FA $$ spent until ownership divorce settled.
SD: Adrian Gonzalez
SF; Aubrey Huff: a FA and SF desperately needs hitters.
Col: Todd Helton; not the greatest hitter anymore but signed through 2013.
Ariz: Adam LaRoche who is a FA but I sense Ariz is rebuilding and not FA buyers
So, if he goes anywhere I think it could be either Atlanta, Chicago or San Francisco. Chicago already has some serious payroll issues and an underperforming team. SF may not have the payroll flexibility to buy Dunn despite really needing him. Atlanta only has $60M committed next year and has a bunch of arbitration cases … but they’ve spent over $100m on payroll as recently as 2 years ago and may expand it out again.
Adding in AL teams, looking at 1B solutions (I can’t see him signing up for a team that will ONLY DH him, so we have to look at teams where he splits time between 1B and DH).
Bos: Youklis/Victor Martinez
NYY: Teixeira
Tampa: Carlos Pena, a FA who will be allowed to walk. However, Tampa won’t buy Dunn
Tor: Lyle Overbay, a FA who is 34. Can’t see Toronto buying an aging FA w/ new GM in town.
Balt: Ty Wiggington: another aging mediocre FA. But are Orioles buyers?
Det: Cabrera
CWS: Paul Konerko, a FA coming off a fantastic season; i see him resigning here.
Minn: Justin Morneau
KC: Billy Butler
Cle: Matt LaPorta, the future of this team right now and bounty from the CC Sabathia trade.
LAA: Kendrys Morales;
Oak; Daric Barton: up and coming hitter, only 24.
Sea: Russell Branyon/Casey Kotchman but they have Justin Smoak coming up (bounty for Cliff Lee).
Texas: Jorge Cantu/Chris Davis; rotating door post Smoak trade, but Mitch Moreland is prospect of the future.
So, from what I can tell there’s only really 4 AL teams that even have FA spots at 1B. Chicago (resigning Konerko), Tampa (not FA players), Toronto (are they FA buyers?) and Baltimore (why would Dunn go to a WORSE team than Washington?)
I still see him focusing on the NL. Based on this … Dunn seems like he may have options in the NL, which means our chances of having him accept a 3 year deal with us less likely. Not good news for us in 2011.