Did you know we’re already two weeks into the D1 college season?
Let’s look at the first two weeks of the season for some of the top-ranked candidates to go 1-1, and draw some ridiculous and wildly speculative short-sample-size driven conclusions. 🙂
Actually, more seriously, I wanted to take a bit of time to do the first part of this post, which is to capture direct links for the players in question to have a quick resource I can refer back to. So, hope you enjoy this as well to save you some googling.
I’ll focus on probably just 5-6 players right now, maybe add more if players pop this spring. Obviously can’t do this for the HS guys in the mix like Holliday but if we can find something for them i’ll add it.
Link Block:
- Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M. TAMU stats & Box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
Two week check-ins:
- LaViolette: starting slow; slashing .211/.444/.737 through two weekend series. Playing CF despite his size/projection to be a corner OF in the pros, batting 2nd. Only has four hits through 6 games but all four were XBH, pushing up his slugging and OPS. They’ve played Elon and Cal Poly on neutral fields, not exactly powerhouses, so a little disappointing of a start.
- Arnold: FSU’s #1/Friday night starter: Can’t ask for a better start: 2 starts, 2 wins, 11IP and just 3 hits allowed. He went 6ip/1h against my alma mater JMU in the opener, then went 5ip/2h against Penn last weekend. Obviously Penn isn’t a baseball powerhouse but JMU can be frisky. In both games he was on a short pitch count and could have gone longer.
- Bremner: UCSB’s #1/Friday starter: went 3 hitless innings to open against Campbell (rumor had it the weather was super cold), then 3 runs in 3IP against a weaker Seattle University team. Keith Law was on hand and wasn’t complementary of what he saw.
- Arquette is on fire to start, playing SS and batting 2nd for OSU. Through two weekends he’s slashing .440/.559/.880 as OSU played in two top-notch tourneys to open their season. There’s definitely something to like about this guy.
- Canarella has been playing CF and batting third for Clemson to start, but got subbed out of one game and missed another early in the season. He had labrum surgery (!!) in the off-season and there was some question if he’d be ready to go in Feb, and its also why some boards have him out of the top of the draft for now. So far, a slow start: .250/.333/.375 with almost no power. It’s also fair to say their opening weekend tournament was about as tough as it could be (they played OK State, Arizona, and Ole Miss). I wonder if he’s really even in the mix for the upper half of the first round.
Where do these players’ teams rank btw? Per D1baseball’s updated rankings post-weekend results,
- TAMU #1 (holding at #1)
- FSU #7 (up from #9)
- UCSB #20 (up one from #21 pre weekend)
- OSU #9 (down from #7 before weekend)
- Clemson #13 (up 1 from #14 pre weekend)
So all these players are playing for top teams in solid divisions, which guarantees good competition when we get to conference play.
So, that’s a quick check in. Arnold and Arquette look great, LaViolette starting slow, Canarella may still be hurt, and Bremner seems like he may drop out of 1-1 contention unless he starts blowing away sub-par competition.
Funny that LaViolette’s “slow” start includes a 1.181 OPS.
Having been burned far too many times by the Nats being a bit too cavalier with drafting guys with poor contact/pitch recognition skills, and a subsequent inability to teach this, I’m hyper-wary of drafting a guy at 1-1 with these risks. It’s why sirens have gone off reading scouting reports on Holliday, and something I’ll be watching closely about LaViolette.
Besides LaViolette, no one – at this point – seems to be a typical 1-1 pick, which is kind of disappointing for the Nats, but actually opens a huge range of additional possibilities come draft day. Last year’s draft also didn’t have a consensus 1-1, so the Guardians got smart, pre-negotiated an underslot deal with Bazzana, one of several guys in the mix for “best in the draft”, which freed up about $2m of slot savings to sign a couple high schoolers for way over slot later in the draft.
The Rangers did something similar in 2022, drafting Kumar Rocker for significantly underslot, which they immediately shoveled back into signing Brock Porter, a top 10ish player with the 109th pick. The problem is that Porter has since proven incapable of hitting the broadside of a barn (walking 24 in 19 IP this past season), showing once again how once you get out of the top 5/10 players, the likelihood of your pick turning into a major leaguer plummets exponentially. Spreading the risk like the Guardians might reduce the risk, but it might also just reduce the player quality too. (On a side note, Kumar Rocker may very well turn into the best player of that supposedly fantastic 2022 draft class. Unbelievable how much of a crapshoot MLB scouting/drafting is.)
On another note, I’ve seen some hype around Wehiwa Aloy, a SS from Hawaii (presently at Arkansas), who has began the season very well
Will
24 Feb 25 at 10:43 am
You went to JMU? When did you graduate? I think we might have met at one point.
Kevin R
24 Feb 25 at 10:51 am
On Arnold and Bremner, I won’t be paying too much attention to them. For one, TINSTAAPP. Two, they’re the antithesis of “Rizzo guys”: 6’1″ and 6’2″ under 200 lbs. No chance Rizzo gives a guy like that $10m+!
Plus, look at the past 1-1 pitchers taken: Skenes (an obvious generational talent), but then Casey Mize, Mark Appel and Brady Aiken before him… Yikes.
Will
24 Feb 25 at 10:57 am
@will: SSS lets me say that he’s got a slow start hitting .211 … but 3 of his 4 hits are bombs, so he has a huge OPS 🙂
Good point on a lack of separation for a true 1-1 right now; there does not seem to be a Harper, Strasburg, Skenes/Crews type. I was hoping Holliday would become that guy, but he seems to be going in the wrong direction. But you never know: TAMU has a transfer named Miles Patton who was solid for Long Beach State last year and has started hot this year: if he’s suddenly 10-1 for the #1 team in the nation and is shutting down SEC offenses, he may be in the conversation quick!
Todd Boss
24 Feb 25 at 12:21 pm
@KevinR: yeah! Graduated 1993.
Todd Boss
24 Feb 25 at 12:21 pm
Yeah, this draft is starting to concern me that it’s like 2022 all over again, with a bunch of mediocre college talent and toolsy high schoolers with some significant issues.
The preseason buzz is that the top four talents are Laviolette, Holliday, Arnold, and Bremner. There were already a lot of concerns about Holliday’s contact coming off the showcase circuit, although he’s said to have had a strong start to the spring.
Law’s report on Bremner is damning, as is the report of arm tightness in his first start. The Nats shouldn’t go within 50 miles of any pitcher who doesn’t have a healthy arm.
Right now, in late February, the safest of the top four appears to be Arnold. I agree with Will, though, and have said similar things, that Arnold and Bremner aren’t built like Rizzo draft picks. He likes guys who fill out uniforms, and he’s big on guys with early-season buzz, even if it fades in the minds of others. He likes “famous” picks. So I think he’ll stay focused on LaViolette and Holliday for a long time. I’m personally not completely enamored with either of them, though. It will be interesting to see who else rises to that level, if anyone.
Cannarella really lacks power. Scouts are comparing him to Sal Frelick. Is that who you envision as a 1/1 pick? I don’t think so. I would probably look at Devin Taylor before I would Cannarella.
With Arquette, I’ll be looking to see more HR power and more walks. I also can’t help thinking that he’s basically Holliday with less ceiling and three years older — an oversized dude from the left side of the infield.
If you like jacked infielders and are looking for potential risers, keep an eye on Dean Curley of Tennessee. He seems to be more high floor than high ceiling, though.
KW
24 Feb 25 at 9:24 pm
Cole Henry lives! And is throwing 95! And struck out four of the six batters he faced. I really thought a comeback from him was a lot more unlikely than one from Cavalli, but Cade is still in the witness protection program.
KW
25 Feb 25 at 7:22 pm
Todd: were you STU_TABOSS? I was STU_KCRUSCH
kevin r
25 Feb 25 at 10:16 pm
@Kevin: I was stu_teboss, then I somehow corrupted the account so then i became stu_t2boss for most of my time there.
Todd Boss
26 Feb 25 at 12:13 pm
@KW: Henry throwing 95 is great. Maybe he’s realistically in the mix for the bullpen. I mean, right now the 40-man only has 9 relievers in total, and only 6 of them even have MLB experience.
RP depth chart: Finnegan, Lopez, Sims, Ferrer*, Law, Salazar, Reifert, Brzycky, Ribalta.
The first 7 seem like locks; Finnegan, Ferrer, Law returning, Lopez, Sims FA signings, Salazar a waiver pickup, Reifert rule-5.
So that leaves perhaps 1-2 (injury dependent) for the taking; we havn’t talked about a long man or the loser of the starter competition. Brzycki & Ribalta have to be heading to AAA. There’s a slew of NRI relievers who could get added too.
So, back to Henry: probably AAA bullpen to start, prove he can be effective in relief and stay healthy, then he’s in the mix.
Todd Boss
26 Feb 25 at 12:22 pm
Just listened to the Baseball America podcast talking about the shifting at the top of the draft board. Interesting analysis:
– Arnold: they love what he’s doing, think he’s 1-1 right now.
– Bremner: they’re talking about how he’s getting beat right now on his 4-seamer, which has great arm-side movement but he keeps leaving it over the plate. If he can learn to command the pitch, he could be back in 1-1
– LaViolette: they say his swing mechanics have changed since last year; he’s more stiff, less movement, and its impacting him on both sides of the ball. They suspect he’s added muscle via working out, but it’s costing him as a prospect since he’s now losing grades on his run tool and may no longer project to CF.
– Arquette: not really talked about; just said he’s huge for SS but has big time tools and could rise.
Didn’t really talk about Holliday at all. Amazing how quickly he’s fallen out of the 1-1 conversation.
Also mentioned that this class, which I think we now see, doesn’t have the obvious 1-1 candidates of the past few. Which is a bummer for us, but which can change pretty quickly.
Todd Boss
1 Mar 25 at 10:09 am
It’s certainly a slight bummer that it looks unlikely that there will be a no doubt all star in the mix like there is some years, but there’s a silver lining in that (at least from what I’ve read) the class is pretty deep in the type of high school talent that would normally come off the board in the back half of the 1st round.
This is set up for us to get our favorite one of the top 5 guys for $9M and then a couple promising high schoolers for $3M each with #49 and #80.
I’d rather be able to grab an FV65 at 1-1, but 1 FV55 and 2 FV45s isn’t too much worse.
SMS
1 Mar 25 at 1:12 pm
@sms: Yes, so far it’s looking that way (no big-time 1-1 sure fire all star). As along as we avoid the Phillies/Moniak situation, we’ll be ok.
Todd Boss
1 Mar 25 at 10:22 pm
With Moniak, the Phillies didn’t even whiff that badly. That ’16 draft class was overall crappy. You have to go all the way to the supplemental round before you find anyone with more than 10 WAR (incredible since we’re now 9 years removed from the draft): Will Smith went 32nd and has been worth 18.4 WAR. Next most valuable is somehow Cal Quantrill, who went 8th and has been worth less than half of Smith (8.2 WAR). Moniak along with 3 other in the top 5 have been worth less than 1.0 career WAR.
Interestingly, the 2nd round ended up having significant better talent. Pete Alonso and Bryan Reynolds each have been more valuable than Smith (at 19ish WAR), and Bo Bichette is just a smidge less valuable than Smith (17.5 WAR). Even Brandon Marsh has been more valuable than the 1st round’s 2nd most valuable pick (Quantrill) with 8.3 career WAR.
All 3 of the Nats’ 1st and 2nd rounders made the majors, but Kieboom was worth negative WAR. Neuse too, but not with the Nats. And Dane Dunning still looks like a useful player. He’s been the 7th most valuable among 41 1st round picks. It’s a shame that’s not been with the Nats.
My bigger fear is the 2013 draft. The Astros picked “can’t miss” pitching prospect Mark Appel, who then… missed. Accumulating 0.3 career WAR before breaking down as seemingly half of pitchers do these days. Meanwhile, the Astros left Kris Bryant on the board, who was in contention for 1-1, and produced nearly 30 WAR. (The real steal of the ’13 draft class was again 32nd rounder Aaron Judge) There could be some interesting parallels to be made if Arnold emerges as a favorite for 1-1.
Will
3 Mar 25 at 10:44 am
Probably the biggest franchise development since the Soto trade: 2025 is the last year MASN will control the Nats’ TV broadcast rights. I think this portends a sale to Leonsis, which I predict will happen before the end of the calendar year.
Derek
3 Mar 25 at 10:51 am
If anyone ever tries to say anything good about Bud Selig, just say, “Steroids, MASN, and Competitive Balance picks” and walk away. Yes, he had something to do with the Nats ending up in DC, but DC was bound to get a team anyway, and probably not one so completely hamstrung by such an asinine and infinite TV deal.
Yes, the Nats passed on Bryan Reynolds on THREE picks in 2016, including the one right before he was taken. Of course the Nats had taken Reynolds’s Vandy OF mate Rhett Wiseman the year before, and Wiseman did nothing, so there are no guarantees.
Speaking of Moniak and Kieboom, they’re now together on the Halos, along with their own home-grown failed mega-prospect, Jo Adell. Somehow it doesn’t seem right in the cosmic universe that Moniak is replacing Trout in CF. I would say that Karma will not be kind, but it’s the Angels, who are perpetually cursed anyway. Love Ron Washington, but he’s been dealt a terrible hand.
KW
3 Mar 25 at 3:35 pm