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Dodgers Sign Blake Snell To Five-Year Deal

By Anthony Franco | November 30, 2024 at 4:05pm CDT

The Dodgers continue to load up, as they announced their five-year contract with left-hander Blake Snell Saturday afternoon. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with a $182MM guarantee but reportedly includes $65MM in deferrals ($13MM per year) that’ll reduce the net present value to the $160-165MM range. Snell, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a $52MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. The contract does not contain any opt-out provisions and covers Snell’s age 32-36 seasons.

It’s the offseason’s biggest move to date and represents a much quicker resolution than Snell’s previous trip to the market. The star southpaw was coming off a Cy Young campaign last winter. The long-term deal he sought didn’t materialize, leading to an extended free agent stay. Snell went unsigned into March before joining the Giants on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $62MM and, more importantly, allowed him to opt out after the first season.

Snell had a dismal start to the season. He allowed more than a run per inning over his first six appearances. He landed on the injured list twice in the first three months while battling groin discomfort. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a near-lock that Snell would bypass the chance to return to free agency.

That all changed as soon as he returned from his second IL stint. By the end of the season, there was no doubt he’d pass on the remaining $30MM on his pact with San Francisco. Snell was the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. Over his final 14 starts, he turned in a 1.23 earned run average while holding opponents to a .123/.211/.171 batting line that looked like a throwback to the days when pitchers hit.

Snell struck out more than 38% of batters faced over that run. He had five double-digit strikeout performances and fanned at least eight hitters in 10 outings. Snell had the best two-start run of his career right around the trade deadline. He struck out 15 over six scoreless innings against the Rockies on July 27 before no-hitting the Reds with 11 punchouts on August 2.

The overall numbers were still weighed down to some extent by his terrible first two months. He wrapped up the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings spanning 20 starts. That’s a strong season but didn’t earn him a single Cy Young vote. The overall platform year was less impressive than the 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball he posted during his ’23 campaign in San Diego. Snell finished the season looking every bit as dominant as he’d been during his Cy Young years, though.

It seems the Dodgers are attributing the first two months to some combination of an abbreviated Spring Training and the injuries. While this year was the most extreme example, Snell has been a slow starter throughout his career. He has a 3.95 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate in the first half of his nine big league seasons. The ERA plummets to 2.39 while he has raised his strikeout percentage above 32% after the All-Star Break.

The main knock has been his lack of consistent durability. Snell has reached the 180-inning threshold on two occasions — his 2018 Cy Young season with the Rays and his ’23 award-winning campaign. Outside those seasons, Snell has topped out in the 125-130 inning range.

That’s not a concern for the Dodgers, who have shown they’re far more interested in chasing upside than bulk. Los Angeles acquired and extended Tyler Glasnow last offseason even though he’d never topped 120 MLB innings in a season. The Dodgers will give Shohei Ohtani another chance to pitch coming off his second significant elbow surgery. They’re almost certainly going to reunite with Clayton Kershaw. They’ve graduated a number of talented pitchers from the farm system but seen a lot of them go down to injuries.

It’s an approach geared heavily toward the postseason. The Dodgers prioritize pitchers who profile as potential Game 1 starters. They’re very willing to assume injury risk while chasing that ceiling. That left them woefully short on starting pitching in 2023, resulting in a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. The injuries mounted again this fall, but they had just enough in the form of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to patch together an October rotation. With a star-studded lineup, that was sufficient to lift their second trophy in five years.

Snell arguably fits that mold as well as any pitcher in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two years, only Reynaldo López and Tarik Skubal have a lower ERA than his 2.57 mark. Snell’s 32.7% strikeout rate is second, trailing only Glasnow by a fraction of a percentage point. No one has a higher swinging strike rate.

The Dodgers have four pitchers who could start the first game of a playoff series. Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are each capable of providing ace-caliber production on a rate basis. It’s unlikely all four will be healthy come playoff time, but the Dodgers have no shortage of talented options behind them. Kershaw figures to be back in the rotation mix once he re-signs, while Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and prospect Nick Frasso are returning from major surgeries. Bobby Miller is looking to rebound from a terrible sophomore season after turning in a 3.76 ERA across 22 starts as a rookie. Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski are capable depth arms.

That’s before considering the possibility of further acquisitions. The Dodgers will surely make a push for NPB ace Roki Sasaki, who’d arguably be the fifth starter if he went to L.A. Even if Sasaki signs elsewhere, the Dodgers could pursue Garrett Crochet on the offseason trade market and/or continue adding starting pitching at the deadline.

Of course, the ability to stockpile this kind of rotation talent is a reflection of the Dodgers’ financial might. Even if other front offices share their general approach to valuing upside over durability, few ownership groups are willing to match L.A.’s spending. The Dodgers had generally shied away from pitching splashes under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, but that has changed over the past calendar year. This is their third nine-figure pitching investment since last offseason (fourth including Ohtani). They signed Yamamoto for $325MM and extended Glasnow on a deal that included $110MM in new money.

MLBTR ranked Snell as the #2 starting pitcher in the class and predicted a five-year, $160MM contract. The deal’s actual value lands right around there. The specific NPV won’t be clear until the deferral structure is revealed. The expected $32-33MM luxury tax hit indicates the deal will have a net present value in the $160-165MM range. That’d be the second-biggest luxury tax hit on L.A.’s books, trailing only the approximate $46.1MM CBT number on Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700MM contract.

In any case, the deal is likely to push the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax figure north of $300MM. They’ll almost certainly land in the fourth and final tier of penalization, which begins at $301MM. The Dodgers are subject to the highest tier of escalation penalties for paying the tax in at least three straight seasons. The Snell deal itself will cost the Dodgers something in the range of $25-30MM in taxes by vaulting them from the middle of the second penalization tier to the start of the highest tax bracket. Future spending will be taxed at the maximum 110% clip.

It’s a major commitment but one the Dodgers are well-positioned to make. They’re coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series win. More importantly, the structure of Ohtani’s contract allows the Dodgers to continue stockpiling talent. While the Ohtani deal was not an end-around the luxury tax, there’s a huge benefit from a raw payroll perspective. Paying the NL MVP a $2MM salary for the next nine seasons is a big reason they’re able to continue taking on huge money in the short term.

Snell slotted alongside Corbin Burnes and ahead of Max Fried as the top starters in this year’s class. In addition to fitting the Dodgers’ general preference for high-ceiling arms, Snell came with the benefit of not costing draft compensation. He’s the only of the top three starters who wasn’t issued a qualifying offer. Snell had received the QO during his first free agent trip, so the Giants could not make the offer this time around. Burnes and Fried each rejected a qualifying offer and would’ve cost the Dodgers their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft and $1MM from their ’26 bonus pool for international amateurs.

Burnes and Fried become the clear #1-2 options for the other teams seeking top-flight starting pitching. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported this evening that the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles were also in the Snell bidding. They’ve all been tied to top-of-the-market starting pitchers — Boston especially — and should remain active on that front in the weeks to come.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Dodgers and Snell had a five-year deal, shortly after the pitcher revealed on Instagram that he was joining L.A. Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the $182MM guarantee. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported that the deal contained deferrals that would drop the net present value to the $32-33MM range annually. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was first with the $52MM signing bonus, while Feinsand had the limited no-trade protection. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported the absence of an opt-out clause. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the presence of an assignment bonus, which Harris relayed at $5MM. Heyman first reported the exact breakdown of the deferrals.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Extend Tommy Edman

By Nick Deeds | November 29, 2024 at 11:00pm CDT

The Dodgers and superutility man Tommy Edman have agreed to a five-year $74MM extension that runs from 2025 to 2029 and contains a club option for the 2030 season, the team has announced. The option for 2030 is worth $13MM and comes with a $3MM buyout. Edman will receive a $17MM signing bonus, and $25MM of the extension’s total value will be deferred and paid out over a span of ten years, starting five years after the deal is complete. Since Edman was already under contract for $9.5MM in 2025, the new deal is effectively a four-year extension worth $64.5MM in new money. Edman is represented by agent Jonathan Weiss.

Los Angeles was reportedly in the midst of “preliminary” discussions regarding an extension with Edman’s camp last week, and those talks have now come to fruition. It took the Dodgers only 53 regular-season games and 16 postseason games to decide that Edman was a player they wanted on the field over the long term, as the 29-year-old has already made a big impact since being acquired at the trade deadline.

The three-team, eight-player trade that brought Edman from the Cardinals and Michael Kopech from the White Sox proved to be critical to the Dodgers’ World Series title. At the time of the deal, Edman hadn’t appeared in a big league game following setbacks related to wrist surgery he underwent during the 2023 offseason. While he ultimately didn’t make his Dodgers debut until August 19, the switch-hitter made an immediate impression with the club as he seamlessly shifted between center field and shortstop down the stretch and into the postseason, all while hitting a respectable .237/.294/.417 (98 wRC+) in the regular season. In the playoffs, Edman went a level higher and hit .328/.354/.508 over 67 postseason plate appearances, and was named MVP of the NLCS.

By keeping Edman in the fold long-term, the Dodgers will retain a flexible player who can play all over the diamond and shift between the infield and outfield with minimal issues based on the needs of the club. That’s an archetype of player the club has coveted in recent years, as evidenced by their commitment to Chris Taylor and frequent deals with Enrique Hernandez. While Hernandez is currently a free agent and Taylor does not figure to be a regular fixture in the club’s lineup for 2025, Edman is joined by Mookie Betts as a player who offers the Dodgers plenty of flexibility in their lineup construction. A six-time Gold Glove winner in right field, Betts has in recent seasons begun to play an increasing amount of second base and even shortstop, and the club seemingly plans to play him on the infield dirt again in 2025.

With Betts, Gavin Lux, and Miguel Rojas poised to handle the middle infield for the Dodgers next year, that could leave Edman to patrol center field for the Dodgers on a regular basis next year. It’s a position he only picked up on a regular basis in 2023, but he’s been undeniably effective since moving there: he posted +1 Outs Above Average at the position in just 188 innings with the Dodgers this year after reaching an excellent +5 mark in 330 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2023. If he can maintain that level of defensive prowess at the position over a full season, Edman’s league average bat should make him a well above average regular overall for the Dodgers in 2025.

It’s already been a busy offseason for the Dodgers, as today’s Edman extension pairs with their blockbuster five-year deal with lefty Blake Snell earlier this week. With room to improve in the outfielder corners, holes to fill in the bullpen, and longtime franchise face Clayton Kershaw as of yet unsigned, there figures to be plenty more on president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s to-do list this winter. Having Edman’s plus defensive ability locked into center field for the foreseeable future could make the club even more comfortable pursuing offensive upgrades in the outfield corners. They’ve already been linked to corner bats without much defensive prowess such as Teoscar Hernandez and even Juan Soto, both of whom are rumored targets for L.A. this winter and would surely appreciate being flanked by a center fielder of Edman’s caliber.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the extension and the contract terms. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link) had the specifics on the deferred money.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Brandon Crawford Announces Retirement

By Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald | November 27, 2024 at 11:58pm CDT

Giants legend and long-time shortstop Brandon Crawford has announced his retirement in a post on his personal Instagram account today. The Giants announced (X link from Justice delos Santos of The Mercury News) that Crawford will be celebrated at the club’s upcoming game on April 26, when they will be hosting the Rangers, managed by Crawford’s former skipper Bruce Bochy.

“Growing up in the Bay Area and going to games at Candlestick,” Crawford says, “I always dreamed of playing for the San Francisco Giants. Being drafted by my hometown team and spending most of my career with them far surpassed any dream I had as a kid. I definitely pretended to win a World Series in my backyard – but winning two? That was beyond my wildest dreams.” He goes on to express gratitude to that organization as well as the Cardinals, his family members, coaches, teammates, fans and many others who he crossed paths with.

As Crawford himself mentioned, he could hardly have asked for more of the platonic childhood baseball dream. In 2008, he was drafted by the club he grew up cheering for, with the Giants selecting him in the fourth round out of UCLA. In 2010, the Giants won the World Series, their first title since the club moved from New York to San Francisco. However, Crawford was still a minor leaguer at that time.

He was able to make his major league debut in late May of 2011, and he did so in memorable fashion. In his first game in the show, he hit a grand slam in the seventh inning, his first major league hit (YouTube link from MLB). That gave the club a 5-3 lead over the Brewers and they held on to win 5-4. Despite that notable start, the first season wasn’t great overall. He hit just .204/.288/.296 and only got into 66 games. The Giants finished 86-76 and missed the playoffs.

In 2012, Crawford took a firmer hold of the shortstop job in San Francisco, getting into 143 games. His offense still wasn’t especially impressive but it was better than the year prior and his defense was well regarded. The club went 94-68, winning the National West and advancing to the postseason. Crawford hit just .217/.321/.283 in the playoffs but the Giants went on to defeat the Reds, Cardinals and Tigers, earning their second title in three years.

The following year, Crawford’s performance held fairly steady. His offense was again a bit below league average but with strong shortstop defense. However, the Giants slid to 76-86, well out of contention. They came back in 2014, with an 88-74 record that was enough to snag a Wild Card spot. At that time, there were just two such spots per league and those clubs faced off in a one-game, winner-take-all matchup. The Giants cruised through that game with an 8-0 victory, then defeated the Nationals, Cardinals and Royals to secure yet another title. The Giants had three trophies in five years and Crawford had two rings with his hometown club before his 28th birthday.

Crawford had his best offensive season to date in 2015, as he hit 21 homers with a .256/.321/.462 slash line. He made his first All-Star Game and collected both a Silver Slugger and his first Gold Glove award. While the team’s performance fell off, Crawford emerged as a legitimate star. The Giants recognized as much and signed him to a six-year, $75MM extension.

It was more of the same in 2016. Crawford hit .275/.342/.430 while continuing to play elite shortstop defense. He won his second straight Gold Glove and found his name on MVP ballots for the first time. Crawford’s offense dropped over the next few years, but he continued to play excellent defense. He earned a third straight Gold Glove in ’17 and another All-Star appearance in ’18.

While Crawford appeared to be on the downswing of his career toward the end of the 2010s, he hit surprisingly well in the shortened ’20 season. It would’ve been easy to write that off as a small sample blip if Crawford didn’t follow that up with a monster year. At age 34, Crawford set a career mark with 24 homers while hitting .298/.373/.522 in 138 games. He earned another Gold Glove and All-Star nod and finished fourth in NL MVP balloting as the Giants reeled off 107 wins to secure their first division title in a decade.

San Francisco re-signed their longtime shortstop to a two-year, $32MM extension on the heels of that resurgent showing. Neither Crawford nor the team managed to sustain their ’21 form, though, and that deal didn’t wind up working as the club hoped. San Francisco let Crawford walk once he hit free agency last winter. He signed a one-year contract with the Cardinals but was limited to 29 games as a veteran backup to rookie Masyn Winn in St. Louis.

Crawford finishes his career with more than 1400 hits and a .249/.318/.395 batting line over more than 6300 plate appearances. He hit 147 homers and drove in 748 runs. Crawford’s production was even more impressive on the other side of the ball. He was one of the preeminent defensive shortstops of his era and earned four Gold Glove nods. Crawford made three All-Star teams, appeared on MVP ballots twice, and won the aforementioned two titles with his hometown club. Baseball Reference valued his career around 29 wins above replacement over parts of 14 seasons. B-Ref calculated his career earnings around $114MM. MLBTR salutes Crawford on an excellent career and sends our best wishes in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels Sign Yusei Kikuchi

By Nick Deeds | November 27, 2024 at 3:05pm CDT

The Angeles officially announced the signing of Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year deal on Wednesday afternoon. Kikuchi, a client of the Boras Corporation, is guaranteed $63MM. He’ll make even $21MM salaries over the contract.

Kikuchi, 33, spent nine seasons pitching for NPB’s Seibu Lions before he was posted for major league clubs prior to his age-28 campaign during the 2018-19 offseason. The lefty landed with the Mariners on a complex contract that guaranteed the southpaw $56MM over four years, with the fourth year being a $13MM player option that the Mariners could preempt by picking up a four-year club option worth $66MM.

Complicated as that contract was, however, Kikuchi’s time in Seattle was both disappointing and straightforward. The lefty struggled over his first two seasons in the majors, posting a lackluster 5.39 ERA and 5.17 FIP between the 2019 and ’20 seasons.

He managed to turn things around a bit in 2021, however, with a 4.41 ERA (96 ERA+) and a 4.61 FIP. While those numbers hardly jump off the page, Kikuchi was an All-Star in 2021 and looked dominant at times, with a 2.33 ERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate in an 11-start stretch from late April to early July. Kikuchi took a gamble and entered free agency despite his uneven season. That decision wound up paying off, as he would eventually sign with the Blue Jays on a three-year, $36MM contract. His time in Toronto started off much like his stay in Seattle, as he struggled badly in 2022 to the tune of a 5.19 ERA and 5.62 FIP in 100 2/3 innings of work split between the bullpen and rotation.

The lefty finally figured things out at the age of 32 last season, however, and showed off the consistent, mid-rotation production both the Mariners and Jays had dreamed on when signing him. In 32 starts for Toronto in 2023, Kikuchi pitched to a solid 3.86 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 6.9% walk rate. That solid campaign seemed to tee the lefty up for another steady season in 2024, though he once again faced a number of ups and downs. Kikuchi’s time in Toronto this year saw him drastically underperform his underlying metrics, as he pitched to a lackluster 4.75 ERA despite his 26.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate both being improvements over the previous season. Despite that ugly ERA, the lefty had a 3.66 FIP, 3.51 SIERA, and 3.43 xFIP during his 22 starts with the Blue Jays this year.

Those exciting peripherals surely helped convince the Astros to package youngsters Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner in a trade with the Jays that brought Kikuchi to Houston for the stretch run. That was a hefty price to pay for a rental, but the lefty made good on his price tag with ten dazzling starts for the Astros following the trade deadline. He racked up 60 innings of 2.70 ERA ball, struck out a whopping 31.8% of opponents while walking just 5.9%, and improved his overall season numbers to a league average 4.05 ERA with a 3.46 FIP that was good for the 16th-best mark among all qualified big leaguers this year, sandwiched comfortably between top free agent starters Max Fried (3.33) and Jack Flaherty (3.48).

Now, the Angels are betting on those excellent peripherals just as their division rivals in Houston did over the summer. Amidst a busy November where they’ve already struck early to land Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman, and Kyle Hendricks via trade and free agency, the club has now gone out of its typical comfort zone to sign Kikuchi to the largest guarantee the Angels have given a free agent starter since right-hander C.J. Wilson’s five-year, $77.5MM deal in 2011. Kikuchi is just the second starter the club has signed to a multi-year pact since then, joining future rotation-mate Tyler Anderson. Kikuchi, Anderson, and Hendricks figure to create a veteran nucleus for Anaheim’s starting staff next year that could help to take pressure of younger arms such as Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, and Jack Kochanowicz.

While Kikuchi’s up-and-down performance may cause his new deal to raise some eyebrows, the pact is right in line with the $60MM over three years that MLBTR predicted for the lefty on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. Kikuchi ranked 12th overall and 6th among starters on that list, placing him firmly behind top-of-the-class arms like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Fried but in a similar conversation as fellow southpaw Sean Manaea among the better mid-tier options on the market. Notably, Kikuchi was unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer after being rendered ineligible by the midseason trade that shipped him to Houston. That surely made him more attractive to an Angels club that has relied heavily on the draft in recent years while fast-tracking players such as Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto, and Ben Joyce to the majors.

Prior to signing with Anaheim this morning, Kikuchi had been connected to the Cubs in free agency as the club seemingly plans to focus on the mid-tier of the starting pitching market this winter with a preference towards hurlers not encumbered by a QO. The Braves and Rangers are among the other teams rumored to be shopping in a similar tier of the market, and any team that missed out on Kikuchi should still have a few options at their disposal this winter. Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Matthew Boyd, and Andrew Heaney are among the pitchers remaining unencumbered by the QO expected to land multi-year deals, and interesting one-year options such as Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer also remain on the table.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the terms.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

By Tim Dierkes | November 27, 2024 at 12:56pm CDT

Our free agent prediction contest leaderboard is now available! Three of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed: Nick Martinez, Yusei Kikuchi, and Blake Snell. Over 4,300 people entered the contest, and six have jumped out to an early lead by guessing all three pitchers’ destinations correctly.

If you’re looking for the leaderboard later, it can be found under the Tools menu for desktop users and under the Flame menu for mobile web users.

Latest On Juan Soto

By Steve Adams | November 27, 2024 at 10:50am CDT

While we’ve started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both coming off the board this week, we’ve yet to see a prominent bat come off the board. Some of that is just the naturally slow pace of MLB’s free agency structure, but there’s also surely an element of Juan Soto holding things up to an extent. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this will be a protracted free agent saga that lingers well into the new year.

Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported earlier this week that five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There’s been some back-and-forth reporting as to whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, that quintet appears to be the top set of bidders for Soto at the moment.

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving, so even if one of those clubs hasn’t yet submitted a formal offer just yet, it’s likely only a matter of hours before said offer is presented. Per Blum, there’s a growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year’s Winter Meetings, which take place from Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.

It should be noted that the current wave of offers being submitted is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With any free agent of this magnitude, there will be plenty of back-and-forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic tweets that this initial wave of offers is considered “preliminary,” with an additional round of offers likely coming in next week. Talks will intensify as teams are weeded out in the run-up to the Winter Meetings. Kuty, like Blum, suggests that landmark offseason event as a likely endpoint to Soto’s free agency.

Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. That might’ve been true even before Los Angeles struck their five-year deal with Snelll last night — one that guarantees him $182MM (with some deferred salary but also a huge up-front $52MM signing bonus). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Soto at all costs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered a similar thinking last night in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain apprised of where Soto’s bidding lands, they could also be simply trying to drive up the price for more serious bidders in New York, Boston and Toronto.

To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Red Sox are indeed quite serious in their pursuit of Soto. They’ve sought to sell Soto on the organization’s history of prominent left-handed hitters who’ve taken advantage of Fenway Park’s Green Monster and also enlisted franchise icons Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz to pitch the free agent slugger on the team’s history of touted stars from Soto’s native Dominican Republic.

Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don’t view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either-or scenario. Even if they succeeded in landing Soto, the Sox would do so in simultaneous pursuit of a top-end starter. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy already signaled a willingness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don’t view the $241MM tax threshold as any sort of hard cap. They’re currently $70MM shy of that level, per RosterResource’s estimates.

It’s not yet clear whether any other clubs could jump into the mix late in the bidding process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier in the winter that he didn’t mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies have yet to even speak to Boras about Soto specifically. The Giants were an oft-speculated suitor heading into the winter, but they’ve not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated they may actually scale back payroll rather than spend as aggressively as some anticipated.

Posting Window For Hyeseong Kim Likely To Begin Next Week

By Steve Adams | November 26, 2024 at 12:30pm CDT

It’s already widely known that the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes will post infielder Hyeseong Kim for major league teams this offseason. An exact timetable, however, hadn’t come into focus until today. Kim himself tells Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency (X link) that he expects the posting to be formalized next week. He’s planning to travel to the United States early next week in advance of the process.

Kim, who’ll turn 26 in January, has long looked the part of an interesting entrant into the offseason free agent market. The former double-play partner of current big leaguer Ha-Seong Kim, he’s old enough and has enough experience in the KBO to be considered a “professional” under Major League Baseball’s international free agent parameters. That allows him to sign a major league deal of any length and for any amount (unlike, say, NPB star Roki Sasaki, who’ll be limited to a minor league deal with a bonus that falls within the guidelines of MLB’s hard-capped international amateur system).

The left-handed-hitting Kim has turned in four straight above-average seasons at the plate in the KBO, batting over .300 with an on-base percentage of at least .372 in each of those four seasons. He’s light on power but did connect on a career-high 11 home runs this past season, adding in 26 doubles and four triples. Hitting the ball over the fence has never been Kim’s calling card, however. He’s developed into a KBO star due to his outstanding bat-to-ball skills, plus speed and plus glovework. Over the past four seasons, he’s swiped 135 bases in 155 attempts (87.1% success rate) and lowered his strikeout rate each season, culminating in just a 10.9% strikeout rate in 2024.

Overall, Kim carries a .321/.381/.418 over the past four seasons, including a .326/.383/.458 batting line this past season. He’s regarded as a plus defensive second baseman who can handle shortstop and has ample experience at both positions. The Mariners have already been linked to Kim, and he ought to command a fair bit of interest from other teams once his free agency begins in earnest. The A’s, Royals, Pirates, Braves, Yankees and Brewers make varying levels of sense as speculative fits.

Once the Heroes formally post Kim, it will open a 45-day window during which he and his representatives at CAA Baseball can negotiate freely with all 30 major league teams. Any team that signs Kim will be paying not only the agreed-upon guarantee to the player himself, but a formal posting/release fee to the Heroes. That fee, which is in on top of the contract, is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Additional earnings, such as performance bonuses/incentives or salaries on option years fall under that purview once they are unlocked or exercised.

Teams Expected To Make Offers To Juan Soto This Week

By Nick Deeds | November 24, 2024 at 11:16pm CDT

The sweepstakes to land superstar free agent Juan Soto is set to enter its next phase, as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported this afternoon that teams are expected to begin sending offers to the outfielder’s camp this week. Olney adds that to this point in the process, Soto has been meeting with teams and allowing Soto and the officials of interested clubs to get to know each other. The Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers are all known to have met with Soto at this point. The Phillies have also been reported to be planning a meeting with Soto, while the Giants, Rays, and Royals are all known to be among the teams to have reached out to Soto as well, though no meetings between Soto and any of those clubs are publicly known to have occurred and the Royals already reportedly view the offseason’s top free agent as outside of their comfort zone.

Of course, that aforementioned list of teams is surely not exhaustive. As-of-yet unreported clubs have surely contacted and perhaps even met with Soto as he prepares to sign what figures to be the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value this winter. As a two-time MVP finalist and career .285/.421/.532 hitter who’s hitting the market ahead of his age-26 season, Soto stands as the rare free agent who would make sense for virtually any contention timeline and stand as an upgrade to all 30 ball clubs, leaving his market to be limited more by teams’ willingness to spend enough to land him rather than positional or competitive fit.

The general consensus around the game seems to be that the Yankees and Mets are the favorites for Soto’s services, as both deep-pocketed New York teams appear motivated as the Yankees look to retain their key addition from last offseason who helped take the club from missing the playoffs in 2023 to an AL pennant this past season while the Mets hope to build on a 2024 campaign that saw them reach the NLCS for the first time since 2015. Soto naturally has a place in the Yankees lineup as their incumbent right fielder, though he might make even more sense for a Mets club that could push Starling Marte to DH in order to accommodate the addition of Soto given the fact that the acquisition of Soto forced the Yankees to use Aaron Judge as their everyday center fielder last year.

That doesn’t mean the other teams in the mix should be counted out, however. The Phillies and Dodgers both already need outfield help this winter and could further bolster the already-excellent lineups that made them the class of the NL this year by landing Soto. The Blue Jays figure to be especially motivated after falling just short in last winter’s Ohtani sweepstakes and subsequently missing the playoffs in 2024, while the Red Sox appear ready to resume spending in accordance with their market size this winter after spending the past several winters on the periphery of free agency. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at all 30 clubs in the context of the Soto sweepstakes of Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

While Soto has emphasized the importance of team competitiveness in his decision-making and there have been questions about whether he may prefer a team on the east coast given his offseason homes in Fort Lauderdale, Florida and the Dominican Republic, the ultimate factor that figures to separate Soto’s suitors is money. With offers expected to be made over the course of the next week, it’s possible that previously-unknown suitors emerge as contenders for the star’s services or currently reported upon suitors fall behind in the bidding process. It’s also possible that the process begins to move quickly once offers begin to roll in; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that the belief around the game is that Soto could sign during or even before the Winter Meetings, which run from December 9-12 in Dallas next month.

Rockies Sign Kyle Farmer

By Anthony Franco | November 23, 2024 at 3:40pm CDT

The Rockies announced the signing of utility player Kyle Farmer on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2026. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $3.25MM. Farmer will make $2.5MM in base salary next season and is guaranteed at least a $750K buyout on the option, which is valued at $4MM. The deal includes another $1.25MM in incentives. Farmer would unlock $125K apiece for his 200th and 350th plate appearance next year. He’d earn another $150K at 400 and 450 PAs, $200K for his 500th trip to the plate, and $500K if he reaches 550 plate appearances.

Farmer returns to the NL West, where he began his career as a member of the Dodgers. It wasn’t until Los Angeles dealt him to the Reds that he emerged as a significant contributor. Farmer played regularly as a multi-positional infielder with Cincinnati between 2021-22. He combined for 30 homers with nearly league average offense over that stretch. The Reds dealt him to the Twins over the 2022-23 offseason.

Over two seasons in Minnesota, Farmer hit .240/.308/.387 across 611 plate appearances. The bulk of that production was concentrated in year one. Farmer had a solid .256/.317/.408 showing with 11 homers and 14 doubles in 2023. His offense dropped off this past season, as he slumped to a .214/.293/.353 slash with only five longballs over 242 trips to the plate. A shoulder strain shelved him between the middle of July and the second week of August. The Twins made the easy call to pass on their end of a $6.25MM mutual option coming off that down year.

The Rockies will hope for a rebound as Farmer enters his age-34 season. He has primarily played on the left side of the infield in his career. He has more than 2000 innings at shortstop and just over 1000 frames at the hot corner. The Rox have Ezequiel Tovar locked in at shortstop and Ryan McMahon at third base. Farmer, a right-handed hitter with a career .283/.344/.468 batting line against lefty pitching, could spell McMahon against southpaws. He should get the bulk of his work at second base, where he has played around 800 career innings.

Colorado non-tendered Brendan Rodgers tonight, leaving second base wide open. The long-term hope is that prospect Adael Amador will take the job, but he’s coming off an unspectacular season in Double-A. Amador turns 22 in April, so there’s plenty of time for development. He’ll likely start the season in Triple-A Albuquerque. Farmer can serve as a stopgap with the versatility to move into a utility role if Amador plays his way into a job in the second half.

It’s the second free agent move for the Rockies, who also brought back Jacob Stallings on a one-year guarantee this week. As with Stallings, Farmer is a veteran with a strong clubhouse reputation who could serve a leadership role for a rebuilding team.

FanSided’s Robert Murray first reported Farmer was nearing a deal with the Rockies. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported there was an agreement on a one-year deal with an option. Heyman first reported the $3.25MM guarantee and $1.25MM in bonuses, while Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the option structure. The Associated Press reported the specific incentive terms.

Reds, Royals Finalize Trade Involving Brady Singer, Jonathan India

By Anthony Franco | November 22, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The Royals and Reds made the biggest move of the non-tender deadline. Kansas City acquired infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer from Cincinnati for starting pitcher Brady Singer. The Royals had space on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary.

It’s a swap of big league veterans between teams that expect to compete for a playoff spot. India and Singer are former college teammates at Florida who each went in the first round of the 2018 draft. Both players got to the big leagues within a couple seasons and have been solid contributors over four years at the MLB level. They’re each under club control for another two seasons.

India started his career with a bang. He won the National League’s Rookie of the Year award in 2021, hitting .269/.376/.459 with 21 homers and 34 doubles while appearing in 150 games. India hasn’t quite maintained that level in the ensuing three seasons. That’s partially due to injury, as he missed time with hamstring and foot issues over the next two years. He combined for a .246/.333/.394 slash with 27 homers in 222 contests over that stretch. That’s middling production for a player who spent his home games at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, arguably the league’s most hitter-friendly venue aside from Coors Field.

He rebounded to an extent this past season. The Reds toyed with using him in a multi-positional role, but Matt McLain’s Spring Training shoulder injury pressed India back into everyday work at second base. While most of Cincinnati’s infield sputtered, India ran a .248/.357/.392 slash with 15 homers across 637 plate appearances. He avoided the injured list and turned in his best numbers since his rookie year.

India doesn’t have huge home run potential. He hasn’t reached 20 homers since his debut season. He’s unlikely to find more over-the-fence pop at spacious Kauffman Stadium. India has solid gap power and a good awareness of the strike zone. He drew walks at a career-best 12.6% clip while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 19.6% rate this year. India has hit at the top of the Cincinnati order for most of his career, a role he’ll now play in Kansas City.

The Royals got very little out of the leadoff spot in 2024. Skipper Matt Quatraro used glove-first third baseman Maikel Garcia as his primary leadoff option. Garcia hit .231 with a meager .281 on-base percentage over 626 trips to the plate. The Royals prioritized finding a more consistent on-base presence who they could plug in atop the lineup. That’ll allow MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. and middle-of-the-order bats Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino to come up with more opportunities to drive in runs.

India should step into the leadoff spot, though it remains to be seen what position he’ll play. He has played the entirety of his nearly 4000 innings in the majors at second base. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have graded him as a subpar defender over his career. Statcast felt he turned in average glovework this past season, though DRS rated him 10 runs below par.

Overall, India’s 2024 season wasn’t much better than the production turned in by incumbent second baseman Michael Massey. The lefty-hitting Massey batted .259/.294/.449 with 14 homers over 356 plate appearances while batting early-season back injuries. India gets on base more consistently, but Massey has higher power upside. They’re each middling defenders who are unlikely to win any Gold Gloves.

Acquiring India to move Massey to the bench would be puzzling. The Royals could look to bounce India around the diamond as the Reds considered last spring. He was a third baseman at Florida and in his early minor league career. The Reds could try him at the hot corner while kicking Garcia into a utility role, though Statcast has graded India’s arm strength as middling even by second base standards. (Playing him at third could free the Royals to shop Garcia to teams that might play him at shortstop.) The Royals could bump India or Massey into the corner outfield, curtailing playing time for the underperforming duo of MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe.

In any case, it’s clear the Royals placed a premium on getting a leadoff hitter. They’re paying a significant price to get him. Teams are generally loath to part with controllable starting pitching. Singer is a quality mid-rotation arm. His career 4.28 ERA reflects some inconsistency, but he has posted a sub-4.00 mark in two of the past three years.

That includes a 3.71 showing over a full slate of 32 starts this year. Singer racked up a career-best 179 2/3 innings with generally impressive peripherals. He struck out a decent 22.3% of opponents while getting ground-balls at an above-average 47.1% clip. Singer has always been a quality strike-thrower, and he again kept his walk rate to a tidy 7.1% mark.

Singer’s stuff isn’t overpowering. He’s primarily a sinker-slider pitcher who sits around 92 MPH with the heater. The breaking ball is his best swing-and-miss offering, while the sinker generally plays for grounders. Singer has never found a changeup to neutralize left-handed hitters. Lefty batters have hit him at a .261/.342/.442 clip over his career and teed off to a .291/.367/.488 slash this year. Singer dominated right-handed opponents, though, holding them to a paltry .208/.252/.311 line.

The platoon issues probably cap Singer’s upside to that of a third or fourth starter. That’s still a very valuable player, and Singer’s track record of durability holds a lot of appeal to a Cincinnati rotation that was hit hard by injuries this year. He’ll slot behind Hunter Greene and alongside Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott in the middle of the staff. Top prospect Rhett Lowder could have the inside track on the fifth starter role, while Nick Martinez is back after accepting a $21.05MM qualifying offer. Martinez is no stranger to kicking between starting and late-inning relief. He could begin the season in the bullpen and move to the rotation as injuries inevitably arise.

It’s a nice get for Cincinnati, who again had questions about where they’d have played India. McLain will be back after missing all of last season. With Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, the keystone is his best path to everyday at-bats. The Reds could’ve deployed India in a utility role between first, second, designated hitter and the corner outfield. The Reds had previously been reluctant to move India, who had emerged as a leader in the clubhouse. They’ll need to fill that void off the field, but dealing him for a mid-rotation starter more effectively balances the roster.

It’s a similar thought process for the Royals, whose lineup wasn’t deep enough to match the strength of their rotation. Kansas City still has an excellent top three in Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and the re-signed Michael Wacha. Righty Alec Marsh could step into the fourth starter role. That’d leave Kyle Wright and Kris Bubic battling for the fifth starter job pending outside acquisitions. Wright, who posted a 3.19 ERA over 30 starts for the Braves in 2022, is returning after missing the entire ’24 season to shoulder surgery. Bubic rehabbed a ’23 Tommy John procedure and returned to action in a relief role last summer. The Stanford product excelled in short stints (2.67 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and could stretch back into a starting role.

On paper, Singer seems like the more valuable trade chip than India. That’s partially balanced by the inclusion of Wiemer, who’ll compete for a spot in K.C.’s corner outfield. A former Brewers’ draft pick out of the University of Cincinnati, Wiemer emerged as a top prospect thanks to a huge power-speed combination. The longstanding question is whether the 6’4″ outfielder would make enough contact to tap into that upside.

That hasn’t happened to this point. Wiemer, who turns 26 in February, has hit .201/.279/.349 with an elevated 28.5% strikeout rate in 438 big league plate appearances. Milwaukee moved on from the right-handed hitter at last summer’s deadline, packaging him to the Reds for a few months of Frankie Montas. Wiemer carried a .242/.387/.358 line in Triple-A at the time of that trade, but he finished the year with a dismal .190/.280/.229 showing in 118 plate appearances for Cincinnati’s top affiliate. That understandably wasn’t enough to warrant an extended look in the majors. Wiemer only took one at-bat in a Reds uniform.

Wiemer has one option year remaining and comes with at least five seasons of club control. He could be a long-term piece if he hits his stride in his mid-20s, but he’ll need to take a leap forward with his contact skills for that to happen.

The trade is close to a wash financially. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Singer for an $8.8MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. That’d likely jump into the $12-14MM range for 2026. India will make $7.05MM next year and will go through arbitration again in the following offseason. Wiemer will play for around the league minimum for at least another two seasons. Depending on Singer’s ultimate arbitration price, the Reds are adding about $2MM to their payroll.

C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week that the Royals and Reds had discussed an India/Singer framework. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Royals were acquiring Wiemer.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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