Search Results (121)

To improve radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) methods, this study investigated the relationship between radar reflectivity (Z) and hourly rainfall intensity (R) using data from 289 precipitation events in Shanghai between September 2020 and March 2024. Two Z-R relationship models were compared in terms of their fitting performance: Z = 270.81 R^1.09 (empirically fitted relationship) and Z = 300 R^1.4 (standard relationship). The results show that the Z = 270.81 R^1.09 model outperforms the Z = 300 R^1.4 model in terms of fitting accuracy. Specifically, the Z = 270.81 R^1.09 model more effectively captures the nonlinear relationship between radar reflectivity and rainfall intensity, with a higher degree of agreement between the fitted curve and the observed data points. This model demonstrated superior performance across all 289 precipitation events. This study evaluated the performance of four machine learning approaches while incorporating five meteorological features: specific differential phase shift (KDP), echo-top height (ET), vertical liquid water content (VIL), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and correlation coefficient (CC). Nine QPE models were constructed using these inputs. The key findings are as follows: (1) For models with a single-variable input, the KAN deep learning model outperformed Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, and the traditional Z-R relationship. (2) When six features were used as inputs, the accuracy of the machine learning models improved significantly, with the KAN deep learning model outperforming other machine learning methods. Compared to using only radar reflectivity, the KAN deep learning model reduced the MRE by 20.78%, MAE by 4.07%, and RMSE by 12.74%, while increasing the coefficient of determination (R²) by 18.74%. (3) The integration of multiple meteorological features and machine learning optimization significantly enhanced QPE accuracy, with the KAN deep learning model performing best under varying meteorological conditions. This approach offers a promising method for improving radar-based QPE, particularly considering seasonal, weather system, and precipitation stage differentiation. Full article

The microphysical characteristics of precipitation and their differences among four typical weather systems over Hainan Island were investigated via multi-source observations from 2019 to 2023. We find that the cold fronts (CFs) have the greatest concentration of small raindrops, with a more substantial raindrop condensation process. The subtropical highs (SHs), with primarily deep convection and more prominent evaporation at low levels, lead to greater medium-to-large raindrops (diameters > 1 mm). Tropical cyclones (TCs) are characterized mainly by raindrop condensation and breakup, resulting in high concentrations of small raindrops and low concentrations of large raindrops. The trough of low pressures (TLPs) produces the lowest concentration of small raindrops because of evaporation processes. The convective clusters of the SHs are between maritime-like and continental-like convective clusters, and those of the other three types of weather systems are closer to maritime-like convective clusters. The relationships between the shape parameter (μ) and the slope parameter (Λ), as well as between the reflectivity factors (Z) and the rain rates (R), were established for the four weather systems. These results could improve the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation and the microphysical parameterizations of numerical models for Hainan Island. Full article

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is fundamental for a large number of hydrometeorological applications, especially when addressing extreme rainfall phenomena. This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of various rainfall estimation methods, specifically those relying on weather radar data, rain gauge data, and their fusion. The study evaluates the accuracy and reliability of each method in estimating rainfall for a severe event that occurred in Tuscany, Italy. The results obtained confirm that merging radar and rain gauge data outperforms both individual approaches by reducing errors and improving the overall reliability of precipitation estimates. This study highlights the importance of data fusion in enhancing the accuracy of QPE and also supports its application in operational contexts, providing further evidence for the greater reliability of merging methods. Full article

Raindrop size distribution (DSD) has an essential effect on rainfall kinetic energy estimation (RKEE) and dual-polarization radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE); DSD is a key factor for establishing a dual-polarization radar QPE scheme and RKEE scheme, particularly in mountainous areas. To improve the understanding of seasonal DSD-based RKEE, dual-polarization radar QPE, and the impact of rainfall types and classification methods, we investigated RKEE schemes and dual-polarimetric radar QPE algorithms across seasons and rainfall types based on two classic classification methods (BR09 and BR03) and DSD data from a disdrometer in the Tianshan Mountains during 2020–2022. Two RKEE schemes were established: the rainfall kinetic energy flux–rain rate (KE_time–R) and the rainfall kinetic energy content–mass-weighted mean diameter (KE_mm–D_m). Both showed seasonal variation, whether it was stratiform rainfall or convective rainfall, under BR03 and BR09. Both schemes had excellent performance, especially the KE_mm–D_m relationship across seasons and rainfall types. In addition, four QPE schemes for dual-polarimetric radar—R(K_dp), R(Z_h), R(K_dp,Z_dr), and R(Z_h,Z_dr)—were established, and exhibited characteristics that varied with season and rainfall type. Overall, the performance of the single-parameter algorithms was inferior to that of the double-parameter algorithms, and the performance of the R(Z_h) algorithm was inferior to that of the R(K_dp) algorithm. The results of this study show that it is necessary to consider different rainfall types and seasons, as well as classification methods of rainfall types, when applying RKEE and dual-polarization radar QPE. In this process, choosing a suitable estimator—KE_time(R), KE_mm(D_m), R(K_dp), R(Z_h), R(K_dp,Z_dr), or R(Z_h,Z_dr)—is key to improving the accuracy of estimating the rainfall KE and R. Full article

In addressing the challenges of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) using weather radar, the importance of enhancing the rainfall estimates for applications such as flash flood forecasting and hydropower generation management is recognized. This study employed dual-polarization weather radar data to refine the traditional Z–R relationship, which often needs higher accuracy in areas with complex meteorological phenomena. Utilizing tree-based machine learning algorithms, such as random forest and gradient boosting, this research analyzed polarimetric variables to capture the intricate patterns within the Z–R relationship. The results highlight machine learning’s potential to improve the precision of precipitation estimation, especially under challenging weather conditions. Integrating meteorological insights with advanced machine learning techniques is a remarkable achievement toward a more precise and adaptable precipitation estimation method. Full article

Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) by radar observation data is a crucial aspect of meteorological forecasting operations. Accurate QPE plays a significant role in mitigating the impact of severe convective weather. Traditional QPE methods mainly employ an exponential Z–R relationship to map the radar reflectivity to precipitation intensity on a point-to-point basis. However, this isolated point-to-point transformation lacks an effective representation of convective systems. Deep learning-based methods can learn the evolution patterns of convective systems from rich historical data. However, current models often rely on 2 km-height CAPPI images, which struggle to capture the complex vertical motions within convective systems. To address this, we propose a novel QPE model: combining the classic extrapolation model ConvLSTM with Unet for an encoder-decoder module assembly. Meanwhile, we utilize three-dimensional radar echo images as inputs and introduce the convolutional block attention module (CBAM) to guide the model to focus on individual cells most likely to trigger intense precipitation, which is symmetrically built on both channel and spatial attention modules. We also employ asymmetry in training using weighted mean squared error to make the model concentrate more on heavy precipitation events which are prone to severe disasters. We conduct experiments using radar data from North China and Eastern China. For precipitation above 1 mm, the proposed model achieves 0.6769 and 0.7910 for CSI and HSS, respectively. The results indicate that compared to other methods, our model significantly enhances precipitation prediction accuracy, with a more pronounced improvement in forecasting accuracy for heavy precipitation events. Full article

Using radar to estimate and forecast precipitation as input for hydrological models has become increasingly popular in recent years because of its superior spatial and temporal simulation compared with using rain gauge data. This study used radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) to select the optimal parameter set for the MIKE URBAN hydrological model and radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) to simulate inundation in Nam Dinh city, Vietnam. The results show the following: (1) radar has the potential to improve the modeling and provide the data needed for real-time smart control if proper bias adjustment is obtained and the risk of underestimated flows after heavy rain is minimized, and (2) the MIKE URBAN model used to calculate two simulation scenarios with rain gauge data and QPE data showed effectiveness in combining the application of radar-based precipitation for the forecasting and warning of urban floods in Nam Dinh city. The results in Scenario 2 with rainfall forecast data from radar provide better simulation results. The average relative error in Scenario 2 is 9%, while the average relative error in Scenario 1 is 15%. Using the grid radar-based precipitation forecasting as input data for the MIKE URBAN model significantly reduces the error between the observed water depth and the simulated results compared with the case using an input rain gauge measured at Nam Dinh station (the difference in inundation level of Scenario 2 using radar-based precipitation is 0.005 m, and it is 0.03 m in Scenario 1). The results obtained using the QPE and QPF radar as input for the MIKE URBAN model will be the basis for establishing an operational forecasting system for the Northern Delta and Midland Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center, Viet Nam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration. Full article

Mêdog is located at the entrance of the water vapor channel of the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, the seasonal variation in the microphysical vertical structure of stratiform precipitation at the Mêdog site in 2022 was investigated using micro rain radar (MRR) observations, as there is a lack of similar studies in this region. The average melting layer height is the lowest in February, after which it gradually increases, reaches its peak in August, and then gradually decreases. For lower rain categories, the vertical distribution of small drops remains uniform in winter below the melting layer. The medium-sized drops show slight increases, leading to negative gradients in the microphysical profiles. Slight or evident decreases in concentrations of small drops are observed with decreasing height in the premonsoon, monsoon, and postmonsoon seasons, likely due to significant evaporation. The radar reflectivity, rain rate, and liquid water content profiles decrease with decreasing height according to the decrease in concentrations of small drops. With increasing rain rate, the drop size distribution (DSD) displays significant variations in winter, and the fall velocity decreases rapidly with decreasing height. In the premonsoon, monsoon, and postmonsoon seasons, the concentrations of large drops significantly decrease below the melting layer because of the breakup mechanism, leading to the decreases in the fall velocity profiles with decreasing height during these seasons. Raindrops with sizes ranging from 0.3–0.5 mm are predominant in terms of the total drop number concentration in all seasons. Precipitation in winter and postmonsoon seasons is mainly characterized by small raindrops, while that in premonsoon and monsoon seasons mainly comprises medium-sized raindrops. Understanding the seasonal variation in the vertical structure of precipitation in Mêdog will improve the radar quantitative estimation and the use of microphysical parameterization schemes in numerical weather forecast models over the TP. Full article

A series of typhoons and tropical storms have produced extreme precipitation events in Vietnam during the first part of the 2020 monsoon season: events of this magnitude pose significant challenges to remote sensing Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) techniques. The weather-monitoring needs of modern human activities require that these challenges be overcome. In order to address this issue, in this work, seven precipitation products were validated with high spatial and temporal detail against over 1200 rain gauges in Vietnam during six case studies tailored around the most intense events of 2020. The data sources included the Vietnamese weather radar network, IMERG Early run and Final run, the South Korean GEO-KOMPSAT-2A and Chinese FengYun-4A geostationary satellites, DPR on board the GPM-Core Observatory, and European ERA5-Land reanalysis. All products were resampled to a standardized 0.02° grid and compared at hourly scale with ground stations measurements. The results indicated that the radars product was the most capable of reproducing the information collected by the rain gauges during the selected extreme events, with a correlation coefficient of 0.70 and a coefficient of variation of 1.38. However, it exhibited some underestimation, approximately 30%, in both occurrence and intensity. Conversely, geostationary products tended to overestimate moderate rain rates (FY-4A) and areas with low precipitation (GK-2A). More complex products such as ERA5-Land and IMERG failed to capture the highest intensities typical of extreme events, while GPM-DPR showed promising results in detecting the highest rain rates, but its capability to observe isolated events was limited by its intermittent coverage. Full article

In order to prevent and manage damage caused by localized torrential downpours, the quantitative observation of rainfall is crucial. Considering the spatial complexity and vertical variability of rainfall, it is important to obtain low-altitude, high-resolution radar observations to reduce uncertainty in radar rainfall estimates. In this paper, we present an electromagnetic wave rainfall gauge system (EWRG) that detects rainfall within the observation area and estimates the areal rainfall using electromagnetic waves. The EWRG system was developed based on a subminiature size antenna, a K-band dual-polarization transceiver, and advanced high-resolution, high-speed signal processing technology. The system design and signal processing techniques are described in detail. The EWRG has the advantage of overcoming the limitations of conventional cylindrical ground rain gauges, such as the contamination and spatial inaccuracy of rain gauges, which cause uncertainty in quantitative precipitation measurement. Full article

Precise knowledge of the antenna pointing direction is a key facet to ensure the accuracy of observations from scanning weather radars. The sun is an often-used reference point to aid accurate alignment of weather radar systems and is particularly useful when observed as interference during normal scanning operations. In this study, we combine two online solar interference approaches to determine the pointing accuracy of an X-band mobile weather radar system deployed for 26 months in northern England (54.517°N, 3.615°W). During the deployment, several shifts in the tilt of the radar system are diagnosed between site visits. One extended period of time (>11 months) is shown to have a changing tilt that is independent of human intervention. To verify the corrections derived from this combined approach, quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from the radar system are compared to surface observations: an approach that takes advantage of the variations in the magnitude of partial beam blockage corrections required due to tilting of the radar system close to mountainous terrain. The observed improvements in QPE performance after correction support the use of the derived tilt corrections for further applications using the corrected dataset. Finally, recommendations for future deployments are made, with particular focus on higher latitudes where solar interference spikes show more seasonality than those at mid-latitudes. Full article

In this study, we applied an explainable machine learning technique based on the LightGBM method, a category of gradient boosting decision tree algorithm, to conduct a quantitative radar precipitation estimation and move to understand the underlying reasons for excellent estimations. By introducing 3D grid radar reflectivity data into the LightGBM algorithm, we constructed three LightGBM models, including 2D and 3D LightGBM models. Ten groups of experiments were carried out to compare the performances of the LightGBM models with traditional Z–R relationship methods. To further assess the performances of the LightGBM models, rainfall events with 11,483 total samples during August-September of 2022 were used for statistical analysis, and two heavy rainfall events were specifically chosen for the spatial distribution evaluation. The results from both the statistical analysis and spatial distribution demonstrate that the performance of the LightGBM 3D model with nine points is the best method for quantitative precipitation estimation in this study. Through analyzing the explainability of the LightGBM models from Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) regression values, it can be inferred that the superior performance of the LightGBM 3D model is mainly attributed to its consideration of the rain gauge station attributes, diurnal variation characteristics, and the influence of spatial offset. Full article

Understanding the characteristics of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) is crucial to improve our knowledge of the microphysical processes of precipitation and to improve the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). In this study, the spatial variability of DSD in different regions of Beijing and its influence on radar QPE are analyzed using 11 disdrometers. The DSD data are categorized into three regions: Urban, suburban, and mountainous according to their locations. The DSD exhibits evidently different characteristics in the urban, suburban, and mountain regions of Beijing. The average raindrop diameter is smaller in the urban region compared to the suburban region. The average rain rate and raindrop number concentration are lower in the mountainous region compared to both urban and suburban regions. The difference in DSD between urban and suburban regions is due to the difference in DSD for the same precipitation types, while the difference in DSD between mountain and plains (i.e., urban and suburban regions) is the combined effect of the convection/stratiform ratio and the difference of DSD for the same precipitation types. Three DSD-based polarimetric radar QPE estimators were retrieved and estimated. Among these three QPE estimators, R(Z_H), R(K_dp), and R(K_dp, Z_DR), R(K_dp, Z_DR) performs best, followed by R(K_dp), and R(Z_H) performs worst. R(K_dp) is more sensitive to the representative parameters, while R(Z_H) and R(K_dp, Z_DR) are more sensitive to observational error and systematic bias (i.e., calibration). Full article

This research presents a blended system implemented by the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting to enhance the nowcasting and forecasting services of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on Vietnam’s coast. Firstly, the extrapolations of rain/convective systems from multiple radars in Vietnam in ranges up to 6 h were carried out using Short-Range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS) developed by the Hong Kong Observatory. Secondly, the forecast from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, based on the WRF-ARW model running at 3 km horizontal resolution, was blended with radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and nowcasts of SWIRLS. The analysis showed that the application of the nowcast system to TC-related cloud forms is complicated, which is related to the TC’s evolution and the different types and multiple layers of storm clouds that can affect the accuracy of the derived motion fields in nowcast systems. With hourly accumulated rainfall observation, skill score validation conducted for several TCs that landed in the center of Vietnam demonstrated that the blending of nowcasting and NWP improve the quality of the QPFs of TCs in forecast ranges up to 3 h compared to the pure NWP forecasts. Full article

High-quality rainfall data are crucial for accurately forecasting flash floods and runoff simulations. However, traditional correction methods often overlook errors in rainfall-monitoring data. We established a screening system to identify anomalous stations using the Hampel method, Grubbs criterion, analysis of surrounding measurement stations, and radar-assisted verification. Three rainfall data-fusion methods were used to fuse rainfall station data with radar quantitative precipitation estimation data; the accuracies of the fused data products with and without anomalous data identification were compared. Validation was performed using four 2012 rainfall events in Hebei Province. The 08:00–19:00 July 3 rainfall event had the highest number of anomalous stations (11.5% of the total), while the 01:00–17:00 August 9 event had the lowest number (7.8%). By comparing stations deemed to be anomalous with stations that were actually anomalous, we determined that the accuracy of reference station determination using Hampel’s method and Grubbs’ test was 94.2%. Radar-assisted validation improved the average accuracy of anomalous station identification during the four typical rainfall events from 89.7 to 93.7%. Excluding anomalous data also significantly impacted the efficacy of rainfall-data fusion, as it improved the quality of the rainfall station data. Among the performance indicators, 95% improved after the exclusion of anomalous data for all four rainfall events. Full article