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2023 B1G ATS: Week 11

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Bo Schembechler Telling Jim Harbaugh to Play a Decent Team (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)

Ohio State and Michigan are #1 and #2 respectively in the latest FPI rankings. They're #20 and #111 respectively in strength of schedule. (FYI - the rest of the B1G is as follows: #1 Indiana, #5 Purdue, #12 Rutgers, #15 Maryland, #37 Penn State, #39 Michigan State, #43 Iowa, #53 Minnesota, #54 Northwestern, #56 Illinois, #67 Wisconsin, #72 Nebraska).

Michigan finally has an opportunity to improve upon their shithouse (for those who've ever kept score playing Hearts) strength of schedule as they travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. Six other games are on tap, including one in Iowa City that might be hard-pressed to exceed the 17 total points scored at The Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field on November 4.

Trivia Question - Who was the last Michigan State head coach to win back-to-back games against Ohio State?

We had our first push of the season, as Ohio State's 35-16 victory was right at the spread. For the other six games, this was the week of the underdog because all of them not named Maryland either won outright (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State) or beat the spread (Northwestern, Purdue). Thus explains my 1-5 mark of excellence last week.

Here's where things stand after a rough week for everyone not named JustinMaz:

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And now, here's my shitty picks for this week:

Michigan at Penn State (+4.5): my pick - Harbaugh! Since JoePa stopped coaching the Nittany Lions, Penn State holds an 8-7 advantage in the series. The series squares up at eight wins apiece in the Post-Paterno era, as Michigan gets a late score to pull away.

Maryland at Nebraska (+1.5): my pick - Nebraska. Both teams come into this one needing one more win to get to bowl game eligibility. Maryland's in the midst of a 4-game losing streak, while Nebraska just shit themselves in East Lansing. So, who's gonna win this one? Nebraska gets into the post-season as Maryland loses its fifth straight. Nebraska powers their way to a low-score win and cover.

Minnesota at Purdue (toss-up): my pick - Row Row Row Your Boat. Think PJ Fleck reminded the Gophers of Purdue's visit to Minneapolis last season? As the old saying goes, paybacks are a bitch. And Purdue is about to get bitched out. 20-7 seems right in this thing; in a game that won't be as close as that score might indicate.

Indiana at Illinois (-6): my pick - Illinois. I'm literally cutting & pasting the Minnesota @ Purdue prediction here... Think PJ Fleck Bert reminded the Gophers Illini of Purdue's visit to Minneapolis Illinois' trip to Bloomington last season? As the old saying goes, paybacks are a bitch. And Purdue Indiana is about to get bitched out. 20-7 seems right in this thing; in a game that won't be as close as that score might indicate.

Michigan State at Ohio State (-29.5): my pick - MAMU. MAMU might get one more win this season, when they travel to Bloomington next week for the Big Ten Game of the Year. This week, ummm no. A 21-point home win for the Scarlet and Grey seems about right, which means that Sparty beats the spread.

Rutgers at Iowa (-2.5): my pick - Buttgers. Last season on the banks of the Raritan, Rutgers offense accounted for 24 points. Problem was, 14 of 'em were scored by Iowa's defense. The thought here - crazy as it may seem - is that Rutgers doesn't give the ball away early and often and... in a huge upset, Rutgers wins this game straight-up.

Northwestern at Wisconsin (-12): my pick - jTarpwestern. In this millenium, the Wildcats have won exactly twice in their 9 trips to Madison. Make that two out of 10 following this game; however, something's telling me this game will be closer than the oddsmakers think. A late Badgers' score will provide the margin of victory for wisconsin; and an ATS victory for jTarpwestern.

Trivia Answer - Nick Saban's Spartans won back-to-back games against John Cooper's Buckeyes in 1998 and 1999.

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