Citi Field's dimensions are a dramatic shift from those of the Mets' former home, Shea Stadium. While there are a few spots in the park that are going to be better for hitters than in their former confines, most of the fences have been moved back in a way that is going to significantly decrease home runs for the Mets and their opponents. Unlike the new Yankee Stadium, Citi Field is meant to be more of an old-school stadium in its presentation, so besides the change in distances from home plate, the heights of the fences have also been altered.
Money Matters
From a raging debate over stadium naming rights to Ponzi schemes, money was on the mind of the Mets all winter long. And while they spent more money in the winter free-agent market than all but four other teams, and opened the season with the game's second-highest payroll, their refusals to upgrade their rotation or corner outfielders suggest the scandal may have caused them to skimp regarding the on-field product.
And relief may not come pouring in with the opening of Citi Field on Monday night.
The Mets are scrambling to find buyers for their more expensive seats, just as the cross-town rival Yankees are, and actually resorted to auctioning off unsold tickets for the April 13 home opener. Although they're projected to exceed three million in attendance, that would represent a drop of over 25 percent from last year.
Meanwhile the Phillies are experiencing a post-championship attendance bounce, which may give them more financial latitude to add help at the trade deadline for the postseason -- and its added revenues.
-- Jay Jaffe
Shea's fences were eight feet high all the way around the park, whereas Citi Field's go anywhere from eight to 18 feet, with plenty of changes in height in between. The right-field wall retains Shea's eight-foot-high fences, and is closer to home than in the old ballpark, from anywhere from eight to 13 feet. After that, though, it's not pretty for fans of the home run. As you move from right to right center, the fences increase by two increments of two feet, all the way up to 18 feet, and when they begin to head back toward eight feet, the distance from home plate is nearly 27 feet farther than it was at Shea.
While the change in fence distance on its own is enough to suppress home runs, the fact the fences are so drastically different in size also will alter offense. Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker says one foot of height added to a fence is equivalent to 0.84 feet of distance. That means that a spot in right center at Citi Field that is 25 feet deeper than it was at Shea (383 feet), with an 18-foot-high fence thrown in, actually is equivalent to moving the wall back 33 feet from where it stood in Shea. It isn't just right field that sees changes this drastic, either, as heading from center to left field gives you fences that are roughly 8-10 feet deeper than at Shea with fences twice as high, meaning they are more like 15-17 feet farther from home, due to the change in height. The fences down the left-field line are a smidge closer to home than at Shea, but fences that are 4-6 feet higher negate that difference and make Citi the more difficult park for long balls once again.
Consider this: The category of "Just Enough" homers at Hit Tracker encompasses all balls that cleared the fence by less than 10 feet. There were 1,490 of these homers last year in the majors (or 31 percent of all home runs). Chances are good that if Citi Field hosted all of the Major League games, you would lose a significant number of those 1,490 homers, and thus a large chunk of the league's homer production.
For someone like Carlos Delgado, who averaged over 411 feet on his homers last year, this isn't going to be an issue, though his bombs won't look like they are going as far any more. For David Wright, though, who hits many of his homers between the 350- and 400-foot range to left, we may see a spike in doubles production with fewer homers to that side, and maybe just a handful of shots to right. Carlos Beltran is another player who may suffer, as he averaged just under 400 feet on his homers last year, a number that isn't high enough to clear most of right center even without taking the higher fences into account. All of this open space should boost other extra-base hits, but it should be a lackluster year for home runs for the Mets.
Marc Normandin is an author of Baseball Prospectus.