QB Daniel Jones- 4 year/166 million (95 million guaranteed) [17, 46, 53, 50]

Boomer reports that a deal might be coming, which is uncool because my latest mock offseason I was working on had Daniel signing a 4 year deal, and now he stole my thunder. Instead of rushing out the mock I figured I would create a post about Daniel's next contract. I am not going to hash the old story of whether Daniel is worth the contract, but rather just focus on the contract. What does a 3 or 4 year deal for Daniel Jones look like, realistically?

I think the first thing to understand is that even though Joe Schoen may be the GM now this is still John Mara (and Steve Tisch) team. Mara hasn’t shown himself to be the hardball negotiator nor an owner reluctant to hand out big signing bonuses. So, even if Joe wanted to play hardball with Jones agent it comes down to Mr. Mara. If he wants to spend big on Daniel the Giants will spend the money to keep him. Mara has plenty of cash over cap. What exactly does that mean? Cash over cap. Translated to English it simply means does the team’s owner have the money to afford the signing bonus? That bonus for CAP purposes will not all come at once, but there is only one signing bonus check. Well, nobody does checks anymore but there is a onetime deposit into an escrow account which is then paid accordingly at the start of each new NFL year.

That’s what dead money is. Bonuses being paid to players you cut before their deal expired. This has allowed rich owners to continue to dominate the FA market despite there being a hard cap in the NFL. In baseball, owners use a soft cap to go over the limit and create a dominate team. They then just pay the luxury tax associated with being over, which obviously pales in comparison to their return on investment. Well in the NFL what separates the big dogs from the runts, is the ability to pay the signing bonuses. If the owner can afford to, then mostly anything can be done to massage the cap.

Like giving a player a deal that averages 41.5 million per year, which allows him to now become the highest paid QB in the NFC East, despite only having 58 million in available CAP space, and having another important pricey FA (Barkley) you wish to re-sign alongside a dozen or so other players set to be FA. Again, one check equals X years of cap space used. Now, that 58 or so million is before the start of the year and a single cut is made. So, that is likely to grow but let's just say it doesn't. Nobody is cut, not even Golladay. They still have that 58 million available in 2023 plus they have another roughly 200 million in 2024 and another 200 million in free money in 2025 to spend this year because they can word the deals so that the bigger cap hits come due in 2024 and 2025 (or later) when the Giants have the CAP to spend, and you give yourself a number you can work with in 2023.

"Yeah, but it always comes due. You can only kick the can down the road so long." Nonsense. You simply run back up to the can and give it another kick. It’s not like it’s nailed down to anything. Now, you’re not kicking again next year, by any means. So, if Daniel all of sudden becomes Falco in the Sugar Bowl it is going to be a rough couple of years. That being said, you don’t give this deal out with the expectations that you will want to get out of it a year later. Nobody banks on failure. Well, nobody who is successful does at least. However, come 2025 when the biggest of the 4 cap hits is coming due, one of two things will likely happen. A.) Daniel Jones has regressed over two years, and if he hasn’t already dragged the Daboll and Schoen regime to the unemployment line with him, Joe will have the unfortunate task of cutting Jones. Yes, 32 million will still be due to Daniel which is a lot of dead money, but 21 million is recoupable against the cap and that is the only number that will matter. In 2025 the cap may have already reached 300 million thanks to the new TV deals, so while nobody wants to be paying a player to not play for them it will be manageable. OR B.) On a more positive note, the team will have continued to grow under Daboll and Jones leadership; and another deal will be reached to extend Danny Dimes stay in NY; which would lower the cap hit in 2025 and extend the kick the game another round.

What do you all think, what's the terms of Danny's new deal? Or is Boomer just blowing smoke and no deal is coming?